Flash Flood Watch 2, NWS Louisville, KY

Adair County, KY, Allen County, KY, Anderson County, KY, Barren County, KY, Bourbon County, KY, Boyle County, KY, Bullitt County, KY, Butler County, KY, Casey County, KY, Clark County, KY, Clinton County, KY, Cumberland County, KY, Edmonson County, KY, Fayette County, KY, Franklin County, KY, Garrard County, KY, Grayson County, KY, Green County, KY, Hardin County, KY, Harrison County, KY, Hart County, KY, Henry County, KY, Jefferson County, KY, Jessamine County, KY, Larue County, KY, Lincoln County, KY, Logan County, KY, Madison County, KY, Marion County, KY, Mercer County, KY, Metcalfe County, KY, Monroe County, KY, Nelson County, KY, Nicholas County, KY, Oldham County, KY, Russell County, KY, Scott County, KY, Shelby County, KY, Simpson County, KY, Spencer County, KY, Taylor County, KY, Warren County, KY, Washington County, KY, Woodford County, KY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
251 PM EDT THU JUL 30 2009

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT AND FRIDAY)...

...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS POSSIBLE TONIGHT...

ONCE AGAIN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BLOSSOMED OVER THE
REGION TODAY. EVEN SMALL UNASSUMING-LOOKING CELLS ON THE RADAR
HAVE BEEN PRODUCING LOCALLY VERY HEAVY DOWNPOURS IN THIS TROPICAL
ATMOSPHERE.

A WAVE OVER THE OZARKS THIS AFTERNOON WILL MOVE INTO THE TENNESSEE
VALLEY TONIGHT AND WILL BRING WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ALONG WITH IT...ESPECIALLY OVER CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF
KENTUCKY. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE PROGGED TO RISE TO AROUND
2.25 INCHES TONIGHT WHICH IS RATHER IMPRESSIVE. FORECAST SOUNDINGS
SHOW A DEEP WARM CLOUD DEPTH...AROUND 4KM DEEP...WITH A LONG THIN
CAPE PROFILE AND SATURATION THROUGH A SIGNIFICANT PORTION OF THE
SOUNDING. THE 850HPA JET AXIS WILL JUST CLIP THE SOUTHEAST CORNER
OF THE CWFA AND WE WILL BE UNDERNEATH THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF
THE UPPER JET PROVIDING GOOD UPPER DIVERGENCE. LIFTED INDEX
READINGS REMAIN SLIGHTLY NEGATIVE ALL NIGHT AND K INDEX VALUES
RISE INTO THE MIDDLE AND POSSIBLY UPPER 30S. ALL THIS COMBINED
WITH 850HPA THETA-E RIDGING AND LOW LCL HEIGHTS POINT TO THE
POSSIBILITY OF A HEAVY RAIN EVENT. MID-RANGE AND SHORT-TERM MODELS
ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT BRINGING A SLUG OF HEAVY RAIN ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT. THE BEGINNINGS OF THIS HEAVY
RAIN EVENT COULD BE SEEN AT 18Z ORGANIZING OVER ARKANSAS. THERE
HAD BEEN SOME QUESTION EARLIER IF PERHAPS THE BEST HEAVY RAIN
THREAT WOULD BE TO OUR SOUTH...BUT THE POSITION OF THE ARKANSAS
RAIN LENDS CREDENCE TO RECENT MODELS BRINGING THE HEAVY RAIN MORE
NORTH INTO KENTUCKY.

THE RAIN WILL MOVE OUT QUICKLY FRIDAY MORNING. MOST FOLKS WEST OF
INTERSTATE 65 WILL SEE LITTLE IN THE WAY OF RAINFALL AFTER 6 OR
7AM. THE BACK EDGE OF THE RAIN SHOULD EXIT THE LMK BLUEGRASS
COUNTIES BY MID MORNING. MUCH DRIER AIR WILL SWEEP IN BEHIND THE
DEPARTING SYSTEM AND WE SHOULD SEE THE SUN AGAIN FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
HOW MUCH TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABLE TO RECOVER ON FRIDAY REMAINS
SOMETHING OF A QUESTION MARK...FOR NOW WILL HAVE HIGHS PROGGED
INTO THE LOWER 80S.

&&

.LONG TERM (FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)...

MODELS CONTINUE TO SPEED UP FRONTS AND SHRT/WVS IN THE LONG TERM
PERIOD SO HAVE MAINLY MADE PRECIP TIMING ADJUSTMENTS TO THE
FORECAST.  TEMPS HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED ACCORDINGLY ALSO.

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...

AFTER A DRY PARTLY SUNNY SATURDAY...THE NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM WILL
APPROACH FROM THE NW IN THE FORM OF A COOL FRONT.  AS MENTIONED
ABOVE...MODELS (NAMELY THE 12Z GFS AND 0Z CANADIAN) HAVE SPED UP
THIS SYSTEM SO HAVE INCREASED POPS FOR SATURDAY NIGHT.  SHOWERS AND
T-STORMS SHOULD MAKE THEIR WAY THROUGH THE AREA SAT NIGHT THROUGH
EARLY SUNDAY.  AT THIS TIME...NO ORGANIZED SEVERE THREAT EXISTS.
LOOKS LIKE THE STRONGEST STORMS WILL CONTAIN MODERATE TO HEAVY
RAINFALL...CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING...AND WINDS GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH.
ANY REMAINING PRECIP WILL EXIT THE AREA AFTER THE FROPA EARLY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON.

EXACT FROPA TIMING ON SUNDAY WILL BE THE DETERMINING FACTOR FOR
TEMPS.  BECAUSE MODELS HAVE NOT BEEN TOO CONSISTENT ON TIMING WITH
THIS SYSTEM...CONFIDENCE IN SUNDAY/S TEMPS IS NOT PARTICULARLY
HIGH.  BASED THE TEMPS FOR THIS FORECAST PACKAGE ON THE NEW FROPA
TIMING WHICH ALLOWED FOR COOLER HIGHS ON SUNDAY IN THE LOWER 80S.
LOWS SUNDAY MORNING SHOULD VARY FROM LOW 60S IN THE NW FORECAST AREA
(FA) TO UPPER 60S IN THE SE FA.

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...

THE NEXT FORECAST CHALLENGE WILL BE A FRONTAL BOUNDARY FOR THE
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY TIME FRAME.  AGAIN HAVE BUMPED UP
TIMING ADDING POPS TO MONDAY NIGHT FOR THIS SYSTEM. MODELS INDICATE
A SHRT/WV WILL FOLLOW CLOSE BEHIND THIS FROPA...BUT VARY GREATLY ON
TIMING.  FOR NOW HAVE PLACED PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WAVE ON
WED.  HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON THIS FEATURE THIS FAR OUT IN
TIME.  TEMPS LOOK TO WARM UP A BIT MON/TUE INTO THE MID AND UPPER
80S.  HOWEVER TUESDAY/S FROPA SHOULD COOL THINGS DOWN INTO THE LOW
80S AGAIN FOR THE SECOND HALF OF NEXT WEEK.  LOWS WILL BE IN THE 60S
TO AROUND 70.

&&

.AVIATION (18Z TAFS)...

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE POPPED UP
THROUGHOUT THE REGION EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL CONTINUE TO DO
SO FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY. IMPOSSIBLE TO TIME EXACTLY WHEN THE
AIRPORTS WILL BE UNDER A SHOWER BUT WILL INCLUDE VCSH AND CB IN THE
TAFS.

TONIGHT A SYSTEM CURRENTLY OVER THE OZARKS WILL CRUISE THROUGH THE
TENNESSEE VALLEY AND BRING WIDESPREAD RAIN TO THE SOUTHERN AND
EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA...LEX AND BWG...WITH LIGHTER AND MORE
SCATTERED SHOWERS TO AROUND SDF.

THOSE RAINS WILL TAPER OFF EARLY FRIDAY MORNING AS THE SYSTEM PULLS
OFF TO THE EAST. CEILINGS SHOULD BREAK UP BY MID/LATE MORNING AS
DRIER AIR COMES IN ON NORTHWEST BREEZES.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 9 PM EDT /8 PM CDT/ THIS EVENING THROUGH
     FRIDAY MORNING FOR KYZ027-041>043-046>049-053>057-061>067-
     070>078-081-082.

IN...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...13
LONG TERM....AML
AVIATION.....13

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