Wind Advisory 1, NWS Elko, NV

000 
WWUS75 KLKN 030324
NPWLKN

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
724 PM PST FRI JAN 2 2009


NVZ031>034-030430-
/O.EXP.KLKN.WI.Y.0001.000000T0000Z-090103T0300Z/
NORTHERN ELKO COUNTY-SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL ELKO COUNTY-
EXTREME EASTERN ELKO COUNTY-RUBY MOUNTAINS/EAST HUMBOLDT RANGE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...JACKPOT...WILDHORSE...OWYHEE...ELKO...
SPRING CREEK...CARLIN...WELLS...WEST WENDOVER...LEE...RUBY LAKE
724 PM PST FRI JAN 2 2009

...WIND ADVISORY HAS EXPIRED...

THE WIND ADVISORY IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT. 


$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
159 AM PST FRI JAN 2 2009

.SYNOPSIS...A COLD FRONT WILL BRING SNOW AND GUSTY WINDS TO THE
REGION TODAY AND THIS EVENING. VERY COLD AIR BEHIND THIS FRONT
WILL KEEP HIGH TEMPERATURES OVER THE WEEKEND BELOW FREEZING AT
MOST LOCATIONS WITH LOW TEMPERATURES FALLING INTO THE SINGLE
DIGITS WITH A FEW LOCATIONS DIPPING BELOW ZERO. A MOIST
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL BRING A CHANCE OF MORE LIGHT SNOW TO
NORTHERN NEVADA MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY. MODELS CONTINUE TO BE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT THROUGH THE PERIOD. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO NWRN NV
THIS MORNING...THEN INTO ERN NV THIS AFTN...FINALLY REACHING EAST
CENTRAL NV EARLY THIS EVENING. QPF GENERALLY STILL IN THE .15 TO
.30 INCH RANGE WITH THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS OVER NRN ELKO COUNTY WHERE
LOW END SNOW ADVISORY AMOUNTS WILL LIKELY BE REACHED. THEREFORE
WILL CONTINUE THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THAT AREA. OTHER
VALLEY LOCATIONS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY LEVEL SNOW
WITH 1 TO 3 INCHES EXPECTED...WITH THE LEAST AMOUNT OVER NRN NYE
COUNTY. FRONT QUICKLY EXITS INTO UTAH LATER THIS EVENING. LIGHT
SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THOROUGH MOST OF THE NIGHT ACROSS ERN
NV AS UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. BY SATURDAY
ONLY THREAT OF ANY SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE OVER THE NERN CORNER WHERE
SLIGHT CYCLONIC FLOW WILL CONTINUE ALONG WITH ADEQUATE MOISTURE.
VERY COLD AIR BEHIND FRONT WILL KEEP HIGH TEMPS MOSTLY BELOW
FREEZING ON SATURDAY. WITH FRESH SNOW COVER AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
SATURDAY NIGHT LOW TEMPS WILL PLUNGE INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE
AND BELOW ZERO. WILL SEE INCREASING CLOUDS ON SUNDAY AS GLOB OF
MOISTURE IN NWLY FLOW ALOFT APPROACHES THE AREA.

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. LONG RANGE
MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT INTO NEXT WEEK...AND THEN SOLUTIONS START
TO DIVERGE BY LATER IN THE WEEK REGARDING THE POSITION OF A STRONG
RIDGE ACROSS THE ERN PACIFIC AND THE WEST COAST. GFS...ECMWF AND
UKMET SHOW MAINLY NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT OVER THE AREA WITH A
WARM FRONT PUSHING ACROSS NV ON MONDAY...WITH A SECONDARY SURGE OF
WARMER AIR PUSHING INTO THE REGION LATER ON TUESDAY. MODELS SHOW
THE INITIAL WARM FRONT MOVING INTO THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY SPREADING CLOUDS INTO NW NV. TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO SLOWLY
WARM TO NEAR NORMAL LATER ON MONDAY AND INTO TUESDAY AS THE WARM
FRONT SLOWLY PUSHES ACROSS THE AREA. MAX TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO
INCREASE INTO THE 30S BY MONDAY...AND POSSIBLY LOW 40S BY TUESDAY
WITH MIN TEMPS MODERATING AS WELL. WILL HAVE TO WAIT AND SEE HOW
MUCH SNOW REMAINS IN SOME OF THE DEEPER VALLEYS...WHICH MAY LEAD
TO BETTER RADIATIONAL COOLING AND HIGHS STRUGGLING TO REACH 30 ON
MONDAY. OTHERWISE...MODELS SHOW PERIODS OF OVERRUNNING PRECIP
STARTING ON MONDAY MORNING...AND THEN AGAIN ON TUESDAY. THE BEST
CHANCE APPEARS TO BE MONDAY...WITH MODEL QPF GENERALLY SHOWING
BETWEEN 0.15 TO 0.30 INCHES OF LIQUID...MAINLY ALONG AND NORTH OF
I80. MODELS TRENDING A BIT FURTHER NORTH WITH THE PRECIP...BUT
OVERALL SIMILAR TO THE LAST FEW 00Z RUNS. PRECIP EXPECTED TO START
AS SNOW ON MONDAY AND GRADUALLY TRANSITION TO RAIN...ESPECIALLY IN
THE LOWER VALLEYS...BY TUESDAY AS THE WARMER AIR MIXES DOWN TO THE
SURFACE. INCREASE POP AROUND 50 TO 60 PCT ACROSS THE NORTH...AND
KEPT 15 PCT POP ACROSS CENTRAL NV ON MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE (1 TO 3 INCHES)
THROUGH TUESDAY AS THE SECONDARY SURGE OF WARM AIR PUSHES ACROSS
THE AREA TUESDAY MORNING.

LATER NEXT WEEK...MODELS SHOW THE RIDGE AXIS ACROSS THE ERN PACIFIC
NUDGING FURTHER EAST OVER THE GREAT BASIN BY WEDNESDAY. STARTED
LOWERING POP WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY WITH ENSEMBLES IN GOOD
AGREEMENT AS WELL DURING THIS TIME PERIOD. ALSO...STARTED LOWERING
TEMPS IN THE VALLEYS WITH LLVL INVERSIONS SETTING UP ACROSS NRN NV
IN THIS TYPE OF PATTERN. WITH A RIDGE OVER THE AREA AND VALLEY
SNOWPACK LIKELY REMAINING ACROSS SOME VALLEY LOCATIONS...HIGH TEMPS
MAY STAY IN THE 30S IN THE LOWER VALLEYS AND MAY EVEN STRUGGLE TO
GET OUT OF THE 20S. DID NOT LOWER MAX AND MIN TEMPS THAT LOW QUITE
YET SINCE THE EXTENT OF VALLEY SNOW PACK IS UNCERTAIN AT THIS
MOMENT. CNTRL NV WILL LIKELY WARM INTO THE MID TO UPPER 40S BY
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS MODELS SHOW 700MB TEMPS WARMING TO 3C IN
WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AND BETTER LLVL BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING. BY
THURSDAY NIGHT...GFS AND ECMWF SHOW AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WITH AN
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT PUSHING ACROSS NRN NV. HOWEVER...ENSEMBLE
FORECASTS SHOW A STRONG 580DM RIDGE OVER THE WEST COAST WITH THE
OPERATIONAL GFS THE OUTLIER...SO KEPT POP BELOW 20 PCT INTO NEXT
FRIDAY WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPS FOR NOW.  TT
&&

.AVIATION...A QUICK MOVING COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO NRN NV TODAY
BRINGING BREEZY CONDITIONS AND RAIN/SNOW TO KWMC AFTER DAWN THIS
MORNING...AND TO KEKO BY SOMETIME AROUND NOON TODAY. PRECIP IS
EXPECTED TO START AS RAIN OR RAIN/SNOW MIXED AND THEN QUICKLY CHANGE
TO SNOW IN THE AFTERNOON. SNOW MAY BECOME HEAVY AT TIMES THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING BEFORE TAPERING OFF AROUND 03Z. LOW
IFR CONDITIONS ARE PROBABLE BETWEEN NOON AND 8 PM PST THIS EVENING
AT KWMC AND KEKO. FURTHER SOUTH...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT KELY
AND KTPH THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON WITH A SLOWLY LOWERING CIG. SNOW AND
IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN THE KELY VICINITY AROUND 6
PM PST THIS EVENING.
&&

.LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO MIDNIGHT PST TONIGHT
FOR NVZ031.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
310 AM PST FRI JAN 2 2009

NVZ013-030>037-030000-
NORTHERN NYE COUNTY-HUMBOLDT COUNTY-NORTHERN ELKO COUNTY-
SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL ELKO COUNTY-
EXTREME EASTERN ELKO COUNTY-RUBY MOUNTAINS/EAST HUMBOLDT RANGE-
WHITE PINE COUNTY-
NORTHERN LANDER COUNTY AND NORTHERN EUREKA COUNTY-
SOUTHERN LANDER COUNTY AND SOUTHERN EUREKA COUNTY-
310 AM PST FRI JAN 2 2009

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NEVADA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO NORTHWESTERN NEVADA THIS MORNING THEN
INTO EASTERN NEVADA THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. GENERALLY 1
TO 3 INCHES OF SNOW IS EXPECTED IN THE VALLEYS WITH THIS
FRONT...EXCEPT BETWEEN 2 AND 4 INCHES OVER NORTHERN ELKO COUNTY.
GUSTY WINDS WITH THE FRONT WILL PRODUCE AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

DRY AND COLD WEATHER WILL RETURN THIS WEEKEND THEN ANOTHER CHANCE
FOR LIGHT SNOW WILL OCCUR MONDAY AND TUESDAY ACROSS NORTHERN NEVADA.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS ARE ASKED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS AND
SNOWFALL AMOUNTS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.