Special Weather Statement, NWS Elko, NV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
239 AM PDT FRI JUN 5 2009

.SYNOPSIS...AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OFF THE
CALIFORNIA COAST WILL BEGIN MOVING ONSHORE TODAY...BRINGING SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS TO MOST OF THE REGION. SOME OF THESE STORMS MAY
CONTAIN HEAVY RAIN...SMALL HAIL...AND GUSTY WINDS. THE UPPER LEVEL
LOW IS THEN EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE STATE DURING THE
WEEKEND...BRINGING WIDESPREAD SHOWERS...SOME WITH LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINS...AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. THE UNSETTLED WEATHER...AND
COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES...ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH
NEXT WEEK AS A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES MOVE ACROSS THE
STATE.
&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY...CURRENT KLRX RADAR LOOP
SHOWS SHOWERS AND TSTORMS DEVELOPING ACROSS HUMBOLDT COUNTY AND
PUSHING NW...WHILE ANOTHER LINE OF SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED TSTORMS
HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS WHITE PINE AND SRN ELKO COUNTIES THIS
MORNING AS A STRONG 110KT JET MAX PUSHES ACROSS THE STATE. A FEW
OF THE TSTORMS ACROSS HUMBOLDT COUNTY WERE RATHER STRONG LATE LAST
NIGHT...APPROACHING SEVERE LIMITS. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THESE
STORMS AS THEY MOVE ACROSS WRN HUMBOLDT COUNTY THIS MORNING IN
CASE ONE OR TWO BECOME STRONG. EXPECT CLOUDS TO GRADUALLY INCREASE
ACROSS THE ARE THROUGH THE MORNING...AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW OFF
THE COAST OF CALIF BEGINS TO MOVE INLAND.

MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT...WITH THE 00Z TO 06Z MODEL RUNS STARTING
TO SHOW BETTER SYSTEM EVOLUTION AS THE LOW BEGINS TO PUSH ONSHORE
THIS MORNING. MODELS NOW SHOW THIS STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW DIVIDING
INTO TWO SEPARATE EVENTS...WITH THE MORE PROGRESSIVE NRN PORTION OF
THE LOW...ASSOCIATED WITH THE VERY STRONG 110-120 KT JET...MOVING
INTO NV THIS AFTERNOON...WHILE THE LESS PROGRESSIVE SRN PORTION
NOT PUSHING INTO NV UNTIL LATE SATURDAY. THEREFORE...WILL LIKELY
HAVE TWO SEPARATE WIDESPREAD PRECIP EVENTS WITH ONE ALREADY STARTING AND
CONTINUING THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING...AND THE SECOND ONE HOLDING
OFF UNTIL LATER ON SATURDAY. NRN NV HAS THE HIGHEST CHANCE OF
RECEIVING MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY PRECIP AMOUNTS WHERE THE BEST
LLVL CONVERGENCE WILL BE. FOR TODAY...MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW LI/S
BETWEEN -1C TO -3C AND CAPE VALUES BETWEEN 500 TO NEAR 1000
J/KG ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE AREA. EXPECT WIDESPREAD SHOWERS
AND SCT TSTORMS...SOME WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. SNOW LEVELS
WILL LOWER TO AROUND 9000 FEET AS WELL...SO SOME SNOW ACCUMULATION
IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE HIGHEST PEAKS OF NRN AND CNTRL NV. EVEN
THOUGH THE COLDEST AIR ALOFT WILL REMAIN WEST OF THE AREA...WILL
NOT BE SURPRISED IF THE HIGHER PEAKS ABOVE 10K FEET RECEIVE 4 TO 8
INCHES OF SNOW BY SATURDAY NIGHT. IN ADDITION...GFS AND NAM SHOW STRONG
DIVERGENCE ALOFT ACROSS NRN NV...ESPECIALLY ELKO COUNTY THIS
AFTERNOON...WHICH MAY FURTHER INCREASE LIFT AND RESULT IN SOME
STRONG TSTORMS. NOT EXPECTING TSTORMS TO BECOME SEVERE DUE TO COOLER
TEMPERATURES AND LACK OF SHEAR. HOWEVER...TSTORMS WILL LIKELY
CONTAIN SMALL HAIL...SOME VERY HEAVY RAINFALL AT TIMES...AND GUSTY
WINDS. EXPECT A BRIEF BREAK SATURDAY MORNING AS THE NEXT PIECE OF
THE LOW PUSHES INTO NV...BRINGING MORE ISOLD TSTORMS AND A BAND OF
MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE LOW. NAM...GFS...AND
ECMWF SHOW A DEFORMATION BAND ACROSS HUMBOLDT COUNTY...PUSHING
EAST THROUGH THE DAY WITH QPF VALUES AROUND A HALF AN INCH. KEPT
POP BETWEEN 40 TO 70 PCT ACROSS THE NRN...WITH LOWER POP ACROSS
CNTRL NV THROUGH SATURDAY. TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN NEAR OR
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL INTO THE WEEKEND.

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. UPPER TROUGH WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT BEFORE SLIDING
EAST OF THE REGION ON SUNDAY. A LARGE UPPER LOW WILL REMAIN OVER THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES/SOUTHERN CANADA SUNDAY...MONDAY...AND PROBABLY INTO
TUESDAY...KEEPING A COOL/MOIST NW FLOW OVER THE GREAT BASIN. BY
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE ALL OVER THE
PLACE BUT DO KEEP GENERAL TROUGHINESS OVER THE WEST COAST FOR THE
CONTINUATION OF UNSETTLED WEATHER. MODELS STILL INDICATE A DECENT
SLUG OF PRECIP WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY AS
UPPER TROUGH PIVOTS THROUGH. MOST MODELS INDICATE BETWEEN 0.20-0.40
OF QPF DURING THIS TIME...ESPECIALLY NORTHERN NV...WITH THE ECMWF
INDICATING SLIGHTLY HIGHER AMOUNTS. ACCORDINGLY...HAVE CONTINUED TO
INCREASE POPS ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY WITH HIGHEST
POPS OVER NORTHERN NV. KEPT IN AT LEAST SLIGHT CHANCE POPS MOST
AREAS NEXT WEEK WITH UNSETTLED PATTERN EXPECTED TO CONTINUE. DUE TO
PLENTIFUL CLOUD COVER AND PRECIP THROUGH THE PERIOD...DAYTIME TEMPS
WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL.
&&

.AVIATION...CONVECTION STILL ONGOING OVER NW NV AND ALSO
EAST-CENTRAL NV EARLY THIS MORNING AND SHOULD CONTINUE TO BE THE
CASE THE REST OF THE MORNING. CONVECTION WILL BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD
BY 18Z TODAY AS THE CENTER OF AN UPPER LOW MOVES TOWARD THE REGION.
EXPECTING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING...PROBABLY AFFECTING ALL TERMINALS AT SOME POINT.
THE STRONGEST T-STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF REDUCING CIGS/VSBYS INTO
THE MVFR CATEGORY THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING...WITH ERRATIC OUTFLOW
WINDS UP TO 50 MPH AND SMALL HAIL POSSIBLE. BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL
AGAIN DEVELOP ACROSS NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NV BY LATE MORNING WITH
THE STRONGEST WINDS OVER EAST-CENTRAL NV. WINDS OF 15-25 MPH WITH
GUSTS TO 35 MPH WILL BE COMMON.
&&

.FIRE WEATHER...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OFF THE COAST OF
CALIFORNIA WILL CONTINUE TO BRING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE
REGION...THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. LOCALLY WINDY CONDITIONS ARE
ALSO EXPECTED ACROSS CENTRAL NEVADA THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THIS
SYSTEM. NIGHTTIME HUMIDITY RECOVERIES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN HIGH
ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA...WITH MORE MODERATE VALUES ACROSS CENTRAL
NEVADA. DAYTIME HUMIDITY WILL TREND HIGHER EACH DAY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
BELOW NORMAL.
&&

.LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

95/99/99

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
413 AM PDT FRI JUN 5 2009

NVZ013-030>037-061200-
NORTHERN NYE COUNTY-HUMBOLDT COUNTY-NORTHERN ELKO COUNTY-
SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL ELKO COUNTY-
EXTREME EASTERN ELKO COUNTY-RUBY MOUNTAINS/EAST HUMBOLDT RANGE-
WHITE PINE COUNTY-
NORTHERN LANDER COUNTY AND NORTHERN EUREKA COUNTY-
SOUTHERN LANDER COUNTY AND SOUTHERN EUREKA COUNTY-
413 AM PDT FRI JUN 5 2009

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL NEVADA

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE TODAY AS A
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM NEAR THE CALIFORNIA COASTLINE PUSHES INLAND.
BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL..SMALL HAIL...AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS ARE
EXPECTED WITH THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING. IN
ADDITION...CENTRAL NEVADA WILL EXPERIENCE LOCALLY WINDY CONDITIONS
THIS AFTERNOON WITH SUSTAINED SOUTHERLY WINDS BETWEEN 20 TO 30
MPH...ALONG WITH FREQUENT WIND GUSTS UP TO 45 MPH. TRAVELERS ARE
URGED TO USE CAUTION WHILE DRIVING ACROSS NORTHERN AND CENTRAL
NEVADA TODAY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
POSSIBLE. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW NORMAL THROUGH
THE PERIOD.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS ARE ASKED TO REPORT WEATHER PHENOMENA ACCORDING TO
STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURE.

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