Severe Thunderstorm Warning 5, NWS Elko, NV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
326 AM PDT SUN JUN 21 2009

.SYNOPSIS...ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL PUSH ACROSS NORTHERN NEVADA
TODAY BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...SOME POSSIBLY
SEVERE OVER NORTHEAST NEVADA. AS THE SYSTEM EXITS THE REGION AND HIGH
PRESSURE BEGINS TO PUSH IN...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL
PRIMARILY FOCUS ON NORTHEAST NEVADA MONDAY. DRIER CONDITIONS WITH A
WARMING TREND ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH MONDAY. CLEAR SKIES LAST EVENING OVER
ELKO QUICKLY DETERIORATED TO BROKEN CEILINGS AS AN EXPANDING AREA
OF SHOWERS MOVED IN FROM THE SOUTH. THERE HAVE BEEN A FEW EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FLOW SO WILL BEGIN FORECAST WITH ISOLATED TS
WORDING THIS MORNING. CLOUDS ARE DISSIPATING OVER NORTHERN NYE AND
SOUTHERN LANDER/EUREKA COUNTIES ATTM WHERE PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES ARE DROPPING BELOW 0.5 INCHES.

VERY GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE SHORT TERM MODELS THIS MORNING. THE
NORTHERN THIRD OF THE STATE WILL SEE PW VALUES RANGING FROM 0.5 TO
0.8 THROUGHOUT THE DAY WITH AN EMPHASIS ON THE NORTHEAST. SPC HAS
NE ELKO COUNTY IN A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE TS THIS AFTERNOON. MU
CAPE VALUES ARE STILL AROUND 1000 J/KG LATE THIS AFTERNOON WHEN
THE UPPER LOW AXIS MOVES INTO THE STATE. TS SHOULD DEVELOP AHEAD
OF THE COLD FRONT WITH SCATTERED TS COVERAGE OVER NORTHEAST NEVADA
FROM LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH THE EVENING AS A 70KT 300MB UPPER JET
FLOW LIFTS NORTHWARD WITH THE BASE OF THE TROUGH. THERE IS A THREAT
OF LOCALIZED RIVER FLOODING AS WELL AS FLASH FLOODING ACROSS
NE NV THIS AFTERNOON.

SHOULD GET SOME GOOD CLEARING AFTER MIDNIGHT AS STORMS DISSIPATE
WITH STRENGTHENING SOUTHWEST FLOW. TEMPERATURES IN SOME LOCATIONS
TONIGHT MAY DROP INTO THE 30S. AS RIDGING ATTEMPTS TO RE-ESTABLISH
EAST OF THE STATE...THERE WILL BE ONE MORE WEAK WAVE TO MOVE
THROUGH...THUS LEFT ISOLATED TS PRIMARILY NE NV FOR MONDAY
AFTERNOON AS WELL.

.LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL
EXIST JUST OFF THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST EARLY IN THE WEEK.
MODELS VARY SLIGHTLY ON HOW QUICKLY TO BRING THIS FEATURE THROUGH
THE GREAT BASIN. HAVE FOLLOWED A GFS/ECMWF COMPROMISE SOLUTION WHICH
BRINGS THE UPPER LOW THROUGH THE AREA ON FRIDAY OR SATURDAY. HAVE
INCREASED PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO A SLIGHT CHANCE TOWARD THE END OF
THE WEEK...MAINLY ON FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE AVERAGE AS
700 MB TEMPS RISE INTO THE TEENS. HIGHS IN THE MID 80S TO LOW 90S
ARE EXPECTED IN THE VALLEY LOCATIONS DURING THE WARMEST
DAYS...WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED WHEN THE UPPER LOW OPENS UP AND MOVES THROUGH THE
REGION...WHICH CURRENTLY IS EXPECTED TO BE ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
&&

.AVIATION...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL REDEVELOP ACROSS
NORTHEASTERN NEVADA LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY THIS EVENING...
AFFECTING PRIMARILY KEKO AND PERHAPS KWMC. MUCH DRIER AIR WILL
PUSH IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST TODAY LIMITING THUNDER CHANCES AT KTPH
AND KELY. EXPECT SKIES TO CLEAR QUICKLY DURING THE EVENING AS THE
UPPER TROUGH AXIS MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. &&

.FIRE WEATHER...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
LATE TODAY. THE STRONGEST STORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS NORTHEAST
NEVADA WHERE THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL IS EXPECTED. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL REDEVELOP ON MONDAY AFTERNOON...MAINLY ACROSS
NORTHEAST NEVADA. DRIER CONDITIONS...LOWER HUMIDITIES...AND LIGHT
WINDS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.
&&

.HYDROLOGY...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TODAY ACROSS
NORTHEAST NEVADA PROVIDING MORE RUNOFF INTO ALREADY SWOLLEN STREAMS
AND RIVERS. LOCAL STREAM FLOODING IS POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY IF A
THUNDERSTORM OR SHOWER WITH VERY HEAVY RAIN MOVES SLOWLY OVER AN
AREA. A FEW RIVERS IN ELKO COUNTY ROSE ONE TO TWO FEET IN THE
PAST 24 HOURS AND HAVE PEAKED. LAMOILLE CREEK...THE MARYS RIVER AT
CHARLESTON...AND THE JARBIDGE RIVER ALL HAVE POTENTIAL TO RISE
FURTHER IF HEAVY RAINSHOWERS MOVE OVER THESE AREAS. PLEASE REFER
TO RNORVSLKN FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION.
&&

.LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

92/88/88

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
423 AM PDT SUN JUN 21 2009

NVZ031>034-221130-
NORTHERN ELKO COUNTY-SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL ELKO COUNTY-
EXTREME EASTERN ELKO COUNTY-RUBY MOUNTAINS/EAST HUMBOLDT RANGE-
423 AM PDT SUN JUN 21 2009

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NEVADA AND
NORTHEAST NEVADA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

THE DAY WILL BEGIN WITH A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
ELKO COUNTY. THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME SCATTERED IN
COVERAGE ACROSS THE COUNTY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SOME OF THE
STORMS MAY BE SEVERE. DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL WILL BE THE
PRIMARY THREATS ASSOCIATED WITH THESE THUNDERSTORMS. HEAVY RAIN IS
ALSO POSSIBLE. SOME RIVERS AND STREAMS IN ELKO COUNTY HAVE RISEN
SUBSTANTIALLY WITH THE RECENT HEAVY RAIN AND MAY EXPERIENCE
FURTHER RISE. REFER TO PRODUCTS RNOAFDLKN AND RNORVSLKN FOR MORE
INFORMATION ON FLOOD POTENTIAL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS NORTHEASTERN NEVADA
MONDAY AFTERNOON. TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY WILL BE DRIER WITH A
WARMING TREND.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS ARE ASKED TO REPORT WEATHER PHENOMENA ACCORDING TO
STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURE.

NVZ013-030-035>037-221130-
NORTHERN NYE COUNTY-HUMBOLDT COUNTY-WHITE PINE COUNTY-
NORTHERN LANDER COUNTY AND NORTHERN EUREKA COUNTY-
SOUTHERN LANDER COUNTY AND SOUTHERN EUREKA COUNTY-
423 AM PDT SUN JUN 21 2009

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NEVADA...NORTH
CENTRAL NEVADA...NORTHWEST NEVADA AND SOUTH CENTRAL NEVADA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NEVADA
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS CENTRAL NEVADA
MONDAY AFTERNOON. TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY WILL BE DRIER WITH A
WARMING TREND.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS ARE ASKED TO REPORT WEATHER PHENOMENA ACCORDING TO
STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURE.

LW

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