Severe Thunderstorm Warning 3, NWS Elko, NV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
317 PM PDT WED JUN 17 2009

.SYNOPSIS...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DIE DOWN OVERNIGHT AS A
RIDGE BUILDS AND DRIES OUT THE AIR MASS OVER THE GREAT BASIN.
EXPECT A DRY AND PLEASANT DAY TOMORROW WITH WARM TEMPERATURES.
ANOTHER SYSTEM MOVES IN ON FRIDAY AND SHOULD SET OFF ANOTHER ROUND
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE IN THE DAY. THE UNSETTLED
WEATHER WILL LAST OVERNIGHT AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND BEFORE WE DRY
OUT AGAIN EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. ANOTHER ACTIVE DAY TODAY
ACROSS NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NEVADA. A PASSING SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS
SETTING OFF NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MOST OF THE
CWA. SKIES HAVE CLEARED ACROSS HUMBOLDT COUNTY AS OF EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF MORE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THERE THIS AFTERNOON...BUT MOST OF THE ACTIVITY WILL
BE ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA.

THE TROUGH WILL BE EXITING OUR AREA TONIGHT...WHICH WILL ALLOW SHOWERS
TO GRADUALLY DIE DOWN FROM WEST TO EAST. A RIDGE WILL THEN BEGIN
TO BUILD OVER THE AREA AND DRY OUT THE AIR MASS BY TOMORROW
MORNING. OTHER THAN THE POSSIBILITY OF A FEW MORNING SPRINKLES IN
THE EXTREME EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA...EXPECT A VERY NICE DAY
THURSDAY WITH WARM TEMPERATURES AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES.

THINGS GET INTERESTING AGAIN ON FRIDAY. MODELS ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT IN MOVING THE RIDGE OUT OF THE AREA ON FRIDAY MORNING
AND BRINGING IN ANOTHER SHORTWAVE OFF THE PACIFIC. INSTABILITY
DURING THE DAY APPEARS MARGINAL AT THE MOMENT. MODEL LIS ARE
NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW ZERO...BUT PROG SOUNDINGS ARE SHOWING A
DECENT CAP ACROSS THE NORTHERN CWA THROUGH EARLY EVENING ON
FRIDAY. FOR NOW WILL GO WITH SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW END CHANCE POPS
DURING THE DAY...BUT THIS MAY NEED TO BE BROUGHT DOWN IF MODELS
CONTINUE TO SHOW THIS CAP. MODELS SHOW THE CAP BREAKING DOWN IN
THE EVENING AS THE TROUGH APPROACHES...SO IT APPEARS THAT THE BEST
CHANCE FOR ANY PRECIP WILL NOT COME UNTIL LATE IN THE DAY. HAVE
INCLUDED A LARGE AREA OF CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE CENTRAL PORTION OF
THE CWA TO HIGHLIGHT THIS. MS

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE GFS MODEL IS
SHOWING STRONG MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS AHEAD OF THE SHORT WAVE
TROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...AND BELIEVE THE MOST UNSTABLE CAPE INDICATES
THAT THERE WILL BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR SOME THUNDER LATE INTO THE
NIGHT. INCREASED PRECIPITATION CHANCES FOR FRIDAY NIGHT AS ALL
MODELS EXCEPT THE NAM ARE RATHER BULLISH ON PRECIP. BELIEVE THAT
THIS MAY NEED TO BE INCREASED ONCE AGAIN IF MODELS CONTINUE WITH
THIS STRONG OF FORCING AND THE FAVORABLE INSTABILITY. AFTER THE
UPPER WAVE MOVES THROUGH THE AREA...THERE WILL BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY
ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CWA FOR SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY ON SATURDAY.

THE NEXT UPPER WAVE WILL MOVE TROUGH THE REGION ON SUNDAY. THE BEST
INSTABILITY ON SUNDAY WILL BE IN THE NORTHEAST. THE CWA WILL
EXPERIENCE A PUSH OF COOLER AIR ON SUNDAY AS WELL. THE MODELS ARE IN
DISAGREEMENT REGARDING HOW COOL AND HOW LONG THE COOL AIR WILL
LINGER IN THE REGION. THE ECMWF IS VERY WARM BY TUESDAY...SUPPORTING
90 DEGREE READINGS IN MOST VALLEY LOCATIONS. HAVE OPTED TOWARD A
COMPROMISE GIVEN INPUT FROM THE CANADIAN MODEL. EITHER WAY...MUCH
DRIER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY CONTINUES ACROSS THE
TAF SITES THIS AFTERNOON. DRIER AIR WILL MOVE IN FROM THE WEST YET
THIS AFTERNOON...LIMITING CONVECTION UPSTREAM/NW OF KWMC. KELY AND
KEKO WILL LIKELY BE THE MOST ACTIVE TAF SITES FOR THUNDERSTORMS LATE
THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY THIS EVENING. ACTIVITY DIMINISHES QUICKLY THIS
EVENING...WITH SKIES CLEARING OVERNIGHT. THERE MAY BE SOME SCATTERED
TO BROKEN CLOUDS LINGERING LATE IN THE NIGHT AROUND 10000 FT
MSL...BUT BELIEVE THE SUBSIDENCE WILL HELP DISSIPATE THESE CLOUDS BY
SUNRISE OR SHORTLY THEREAFTER...BEFORE SHALLOW CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT
BEGINS. THE AIRMASS TOMORROW WILL BE DRIER AND STABLE IN REGARDS TO
DEEP/MOIST CONVECTION...SO SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS NOT
EXPECTED.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DIE DOWN OVERNIGHT
TONIGHT. EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO WARM UP TOMORROW AS WE HAVE OUR
FIRST DRY DAY IN QUITE SOME TIME. THIS BREAK DOES NOT LAST LONG
HOWEVER...AS AN APPROACHING SYSTEM WILL TOUCH OFF ANOTHER ROUND OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE IN THE DAY ON FRIDAY. WINDS COULD
BE A LITTLE GUSTY FRIDAY AFTERNOON...BUT AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS
THAT GUSTS WILL GENERALLY BE LIMITED TO 25 KNOTS OR SO. SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS STICK AROUND THROUGH THE WEEKEND BEFORE WE DRY
THINGS OUT EARLY NEXT WEEK. EXPECT AFTERNOON RHS IN THE 20S
THROUGH THE WEEKEND BEFORE FALLING INTO THE TEENS EARLY NEXT WEEK.
OVERNIGHT RECOVERIES WILL BE MODERATE TO GOOD. MS

&&

.LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

94/88/88