Severe Thunderstorm Warning 16, NWS Elko, NV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
446 AM PDT FRI JUL 3 2009

.SYNOPSIS...UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE ACROSS NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL NEVADA WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY
THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING. CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN TO DRY OUT
ACROSS CENTRAL NEVADA...WITH CONVECTION LIMITED MAINLY TO THE
NORTH ON SATURDAY. THEN CONVECTION SHOULD BE LIMITED TO THE FAR
NORTH ON SUNDAY. CONDITIONS WILL BE MAINLY DRY ACROSS THE REGION
MONDAY AND TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR SEASONAL
NORMALS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY. LATEST IR SATELLITE IMAGERY
INDICATES SCATTERED CLOUDS IS ALL THATS LEFT EARLY THIS MORNING
FROM CONVECTION ACROSS NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NEVADA THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT ANOTHER
AROUND OF CONVECTION WILL TAKE PLACE ACROSS MUCH OF NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL NEVADA THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. THE COMBINATION
OF SURFACE HEATING AND ANOTHER SUBTLE PIECE OF ENERGY LIFTING
ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE THAT IS SHIFTING
INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL INITIATE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
AGAIN TODAY INTO TONIGHT.

MODEL SOUNDING PROFILES REMAIN SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS COUPLE OF
DAYS WITH INVERTED-V PROFILES SUGGESTED THROUGHOUT THE CWA. WITH
THE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY EXPECTED ALONG WITH THE UPPER LEVEL JET
TRANSITIONING ACROSS THE CWA AND PWATS AROUND THREE QUARTERS OF AN
INCH /MAINLY EASTERN AND CENTRAL AREAS/...ANY STRONG THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING STRONG OUTFLOW WINDS...LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL AND PERHAPS SMALL HAIL. WILL CONTINUE THE ENHANCED
WORDING FOR THE CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

AFTER CONVECTION DIMINISHES EARLY TONIGHT...A DRIER SOUTHWEST FLOW
WILL BEGIN TO INFLUENCE THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE CWA ON
SATURDAY. HOWEVER...THE BEST INSTABILITY WILL BE CONFINED TO THE
NORTHEAST AND EAST CENTRAL PORTION OF THE CWA WHERE WILL INDICATE
THE HIGHEST POPS FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. AIR MASS OVER THE CWA
DRIES FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT
WEEK AS A TROUGH APPROACHES THE NORTHERN CA COAST. WILL HAVE LATE
MORNING AND AFTERNOON CUMULUS CLOUD BUILD-UPS SUNDAY OVER THE
CENTRAL HIGHLANDS AND NORTHEASTERN NEVADA. THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
ISOLATED ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGHLANDS UP INTO THE RUBY MTS
INCREASING TO SCATTERED COVERAGE OVER THE JARBIDGE MOUNTAINS OF NE
ELKO COUNTY. DRY AIR DOMINATES MOST OF NEXT WEEK OVER THE REGION
HOWEVER SHOULD STILL SEE SOME CLOUD BUILD-UPS OVER THE CENTRAL
HIGHLANDS AND EXTREME NORTHERN SECTIONS OF NEVADA...WITH ISOLATED
AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE OVER THOSE AREAS AT TIMES. WITH THE
TROUGH OFF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST MOVING ONSHORE LATE TUESDAY.
EXPECT TO SEE A SLIGHT COOLING TREND DURING THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK
OF AROUND 5 TO 10 DEGREES FROM THE HIGHS MONDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.AVIATION...PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY TODAY ACROSS THE GREAT
BASIN...WITH SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY EXPECTED BY LATE
MORNING OR EARLY AFTERNOON ACROSS MUCH OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN
PORTIONS. DRIER AIR WILL PUSH IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST BY LATE
MORNING...AND SPREAD NE DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS...DIMINISHING THE
THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER WEST-CENTRAL NEVADA BY THE MID TO LATE
AFTERNOON HOURS. ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING HOURS
ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND EXTREME EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE GREAT BASIN
WITH MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN SOME OF THE HEAVIER SHOWERS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE ACROSS NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL NEVADA WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY TONIGHT. CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN TO DRY OUT FROM
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ACROSS NEVADA ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.
HOWEVER...THUNDERSTORMS WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF
NORTHERN AND EAST CENTRAL NEVADA ON SATURDAY. CONVECTION WILL BE
LIMITED TO THE NORTHEAST CORNER OF THE CWA ON SUNDAY.

CONDITIONS WILL BE DRY ACROSS THE REGION WITH A DRIER SOUTHWEST
FLOW RIDING ACROSS THE SIERRAS MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

89/96/96

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
1158 AM PDT FRI JUL 3 2009

NVZ030-031930-
HUMBOLDT COUNTY NV-
1158 AM PDT FRI JUL 3 2009

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHEASTERN HUMBOLDT COUNTY
UNTIL 1230 PM PDT...

AT 1157 AM PDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLGISTS WERE
TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 29 MILES EAST OF MCDERMITT...MOVING
EAST AT 5 MPH.

HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF PENNIES AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 45 MPH ARE
EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM...ALONG WITH FREQUENT DANGEROUS LIGHTNING.

LOCATIONS NEAR THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE...MAINLY RURAL AREAS
OF NORTHEASTERN HUMBOLDT COUNTY.

THIS STORM MAY INTENSIFY...SO BE CERTAIN TO MONITOR LOCAL RADIO AND
TV STATIONS...AS WELL AS LOCAL CABLE TV OUTLETS...FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

LAT...LON 4187 11700 4180 11735 4189 11738 4199 11711
      4199 11701
TIME...MOT...LOC 1857Z 254DEG 5KT 4189 11718

JM

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