Tornado Warning 23, NWS New Orleans, LA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
1024 AM CDT THU APR 2 2009

.UPDATE...
AFTER LOOKING AT 15Z SPECIAL RELEASE SOUNDING LIVE DATA...HAVE
DECIDED TO ISSUE A HIGH WIND WATCH FOR GUST POTENTIAL OF 50MPH OR
HIGHER DUE TO GRAVITY WAVE INFLUENCES AND VERY STEEP LAPSE RATES
ABOVE 600MB. THIS WILL BE CONDUCIVE FOR PROJECTING MASS MOMENTUM
DOWNWARD RATHER EFFICIENTLY...POSSIBLY IN THE FORM OF HEAT BURSTS
DUE TO DIABATIC AFFECTS. SEEING SOME EVIDENCE ALREADY OF WIND
ENHANCEMENTS ON THE GRADIENT WIND. UPDATE AND WATCH OUT SHORTLY. 24/RR

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1006 AM CDT THU APR 2 2009/

UPDATE...
JUST UPDATED THE ZONES TO REFLECT TORNADO WATCH #105 FOR SOUTHERN
MISSISSIPPI AND UPPER SOUTHEAST AND EAST-CENTRAL LOUISIANA. NO
OTHER CHANGES AT THIS TIME. 24/RR

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 813 AM CDT THU APR 2 2009/

SOUNDING DISCUSSION...

THE ATMOSPHERE HAS ALREADY BEGUN TO SHOW US WHAT ITS CAPABLE
OF...AN HOUR BEFORE LAUNCH...AT WFO SLIDELL...THERE WERE
SUSTAINED WINDS OF 35 MPH WITH WIND GUSTS OF UP TO 47 MPH. THE
SOUNDING SHOWS THAT THE ATMOSPHERE IS EXTREMELY UNSTABLE WITH A
LIFTED INDEX VALUE OF -10.4. THE SOUTHERLY WINDS NEAR THE SURFACE
CONTINUE TO BRING IN WARM MOIST AIR...PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUE IS
1.24 INCHES.THE RICKS INDEX IS 161 WHICH INDICATES THAT THERE IS A
51 PERCENT PROBABILITY OF SEVERE WEATHER AND THE ATMOSPHERE IS
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING WIND GUSTS OF UP 74 MPH...HAIL UP TO 1.37
INCHES IN DIAMETER AND TORNADOES OF UP TO F2 INTENSITY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  78  51  73  48 /  50  10   0   0
BTR  78  50  73  49 /  50  10   0   0
MSY  81  55  71  56 /  70  10   0   0
GPT  79  55  71  52 /  70  10   0   0

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...HIGH WIND WATCH UNTIL 5 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR LAZ034>040-
     046>050-056>070.

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM CDT FRIDAY FOR GMZ530-550-555-
     570-575.

MS...HIGH WIND WATCH UNTIL 5 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR MSZ068>071-077-
     080>082.

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM CDT FRIDAY FOR GMZ550-555-570-
     575.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
545 AM CDT THU APR 2 2009

GMZ530-550-555-570-575-LAZ034>040-046>050-056>070-MSZ068>071-077-
080>082-031045-
LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN AND LAKE MAUREPAS-
COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER LA OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER FROM 20 TO 60 NM-POINTE COUPEE-WEST FELICIANA-
EAST FELICIANA-ST. HELENA-TANGIPAHOA-WASHINGTON-ST. TAMMANY-
IBERVILLE-WEST BATON ROUGE-EAST BATON ROUGE-ASCENSION-LIVINGSTON-
ASSUMPTION-ST. JAMES-ST. JOHN THE BAPTIST-UPPER LAFOURCHE-
ST. CHARLES-UPPER JEFFERSON-ORLEANS-UPPER PLAQUEMINES-
UPPER ST. BERNARD-UPPER TERREBONNE-LOWER TERREBONNE-
LOWER LAFOURCHE-LOWER JEFFERSON-LOWER PLAQUEMINES-
LOWER ST. BERNARD-WILKINSON-AMITE-PIKE-WALTHALL-PEARL RIVER-
HANCOCK-HARRISON-JACKSON-
545 AM CDT THU APR 2 2009

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF COASTAL WATERS
OF SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA AND SOUTH MISSISSIPPI...SOUTHEAST
LOUISIANA AND SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS FOR AREAS MAINLY ALONG
AND NORTHEAST OF A LINE FROM LIBERTY...MISSISSIPPI TO
SLIDELL...LOUISIANA. A SLIGHT RISK ENCOMPASSES THE REST OF THE
OUTLOOK AREA. ALL MODES OF SEVERE WEATHER ARE POSSIBLE EARLY TODAY
AND THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON WITH THE RISK PRIMARILY COMING FROM
STRAIGHT LINE DAMAGING WINDS LATE THIS AFTERNOON.

A VERY POTENT STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY TODAY SENDING A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING. AS A STRONG DISTURBANCE APPROACHES
THE AREA THIS MORNING THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY THAT THUNDERSTORMS
COULD DEVELOP OUT AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT. WITH THE
AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY AND SHEAR IN PLACE ANY STORM THAT DOES
DEVELOP WILL LIKELY BECOME SEVERE AND COULD BECOME A SUPERCELL
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS AND A FEW
TORNADOES. ANY TORNADO THAT DEVELOPS COULD BECOME STRONG. AS WE
PROGRESS INTO THE MID AFTERNOON HOURS THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF THE
FRONT WILL PUSH OFF TO OUR EAST AND NORTHEAST BUT A SQUALL LINE
WILL BE MOVING IN FROM THE WEST. SEVERE STORMS ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS SQUALL LINE WILL MAINLY HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE
DAMAGING STRAIGHT LINE WINDS. THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY AS
TO HOW FAR TO THE SOUTH THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE COLD
FRONT BUT AT THIS TIME ALL LOCATIONS COULD SEE SOME SEVERE
WEATHER. THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA EARLY THIS
EVENING THUS ENDING THE SEVERE WEATHER RISK.

MARINE HAZARDS...
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT OVER THE GULF WATERS THROUGH
THIS EVENING. A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL RESULT IN STRONG
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS AND SEAS OF 6 TO 8 FEET...MAINLY BEYOND 15
NAUTICAL MILES FROM SHORE. A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE
COASTAL WATERS THURSDAY EVENING WITH A WIND SHIFT TO THE
NORTHWEST. WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD BEGIN TO CALM EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING.

RIVER FLOODING...
FLOODING WILL CONTINUE ALONG SEVERAL AREA RIVERS. REFER TO THE
LATEST RIVER FLOOD STATEMENTS FOR DETAIL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES
SENDING ANOTHER COLD FRONT THROUGH THE OUTLOOK AREA. THERE IS A
RISK OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ON SUNDAY WITH THIS SYSTEM AS
WELL.

RIVER FLOODING...
SEVERAL AREA RIVERS ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN ABOVE FLOOD STAGE
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND IN SOME CASES.
REFER TO THE LATEST RIVER FLOOD STATEMENTS FOR MORE DETAILS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...THE ACTIVATION OF STORM
SPOTTERS...HAM RADIO OPERATORS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL
IN SUPPORT OF SEVERE WEATHER OPERATIONS IS RECOMMENDED
TODAY...MAINLY FROM 9AM THROUGH 6PM.

CAB

LAZ034>038-046>050-056-057-059-065-MSZ068>070-021615-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
1011 AM CDT THU APR 2 2009

...LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS MOVING EAST AFFECTING IBERVILLE
PARISH...POINTE COUPEE PARISH...EAST FELICIANA PARISH...LIVINGSTON
PARISH...TANGIPAHOA PARISH...EAST BATON ROUGE PARISH...ASSUMPTION
PARISH...ST. HELENA PARISH...WEST BATON ROUGE PARISH...ST. JAMES
PARISH...ASCENSION PARISH...PIKE COUNTY...AMITE COUNTY...WILKINSON
COUNTY...WEST FELICIANA PARISH...LAFOURCHE PARISH...TERREBONNE
PARISH...

AT 1012 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
LINE OF STRONG WINDS WITH GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH ALONG A WOODVILLE TO
NEW ROADS TO GROSSE TETE LINE...MOVING EAST AT 50 MPH.

THE LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE NEAR...
  BAKER AND ZACHARY BY 1025 AM...
  ZACHARY BY 1030 AM...
  GREENWELL SPRING...WATSON AND PRIDE BY 1040 AM...
  MONTPELIER BY 1105 AM...

THE PRIMARY THREAT FROM THIS STORM IS WIND GUSTS TO NEAR 50 MPH...
WHICH COULD DOWN TREE LIMBS AND BLOW AROUND UNSECURED SMALL OBJECTS.
SEEK SHELTER IN A SAFE HOME OR BUILDING UNTIL THIS STORM HAS PASSED.

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 500 PM THURSDAY AFTERNOON FOR
SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA AND SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI.