Severe Thunderstorm Warning 90, NWS New Orleans, LA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
402 AM CDT MON MAY 4 2009

...A FEW MORNING STORMS MAY BECOME MARGINALLY SEVERE...

.SHORT TERM...
LATEST RADAR TRENDS SHOW A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS FORMING ALONG A
SURFACE TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING FROM MOCCOMB TO NEW ROADS TO
LAFAYETTE AREA AND MOVING EASTWARD AROUND 12 MPH. ACTUAL SURFACE
COLD FRONT IN LAG OF THIS TROUGH AXIS BUT CATCHING UP. FRONTAL
LIFT AIDING TO LARGER SCALE LIFT DUE TO UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE AND
RIGHT REAR QUADRANT JET STREAK DYNAMICS. THUSFAR...MOST OF THE
CONVECTION HAS BEEN LIGHTNING GENERATORS AND HEAVY RAINFALL.
GRADIENT WIND IN ADVANCE OF THE TROUGH IS ACTUALLY HIGHER THAN
WINDS PRODUCED BY CONVECTION AS BOUNDARY LAYER STABILIZATION MAY
BE LIMITING AMOUNT OF WIND GETTING TO SURFACE. AFTER SUNRISE THIS
MAY CHANGE A BIT WITH A FEW DEGREES OF SURFACE WARMING. ALSO...A
FEW STORMS EXHIBIT A HAIL SPIKE FROM TIME-TO-TIME AND SMALL HAIL
MAY RESULT THIS MORNING. MAIN THREAT WILL BE VERY HEAVY RAINFALL
WITH RATES AROUND 2 INCHES/HOUR AT TIMES. MOST OF THE ACTIVITY
SHOULD DIMINISH BY EARLY AFTERNOON WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE BUT THE
MORNING MAY BE ROUGH FOR SOME FOLKS IN THE MONDAY MORNING COMMUTE.
WILL HOLD OFF ANY FLOOD WATCH AT THIS TIME DUE TO LIMITED TEMPORAL
IMPACT...BUT FLOOD STATEMENTS AND ADVISORIES MAY BE WARRANTED FOR
MORNING DRIVE...PARTICULARLY IN THE BATON ROUGE AREA WHERE HEAVY
RAINFALL MAY BE ONGOING AROUND SUNRISE. NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF
COLD AIR BEHIND FRONT WITH LOWER TO MID 80S ANTICIPATED AFTER
CLOUDS BREAK THIS AFTERNOON. ONLY A FEW DEGREES OF COOLING NOTED
FOR TONIGHT...THEN MID 80S FOR TUESDAY AREA-WIDE.  24/RR

.LONG TERM...
WILL ONLY INDICATE ISOLATED DAYTIME THUNDERSTORMS WITH DAYTIME
HEATING ABOVE NORMAL AND LIKELY INDUCEMENT OF LAKE AND GULF BREEZE
BOUNDARIES DURING THE DAY. TEMPERATURES TO BE MAINTAINED ABOVE
NORMAL THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY MAY SAG CLOSE
TO THE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY BUT WITH LITTLE UPPER SUPPORT TO
REALLY PROJECT HIGH RAIN CHANCES AS BEST DYNAMICS REMAINS WELL
NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. 24/RR

&&

.AVIATION...
/12Z TAF ISSUANCE/
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ACROSS SOUTHERN
MISSISSIPPI AND EAST CENTRAL LA AND TRACKING ENEWD. THIS ACTIVITY
WILL LIKELY PERSIST THROUGH THE REST OF THE EARLY MORNING HOURS
AND EXPAND IN COVERAGE AS TIME PROGRESSES. PERIODS OF HEAVY
RAINFALL ALONG WITH FREQUENT LIGHTNING WILL BE POSSIBLE. WINDS
WILL REMAIN SOUTH AT ALL SITES THROUGH THE PERIOD. CIGS AND VIS OF
IFR TO LIFR WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THE STRONGER STORMS. MVFR CIGS
WON/T IMPROVE MUCH DURING EARLY PORTIONS OF THE DAY BUT SHOULD AT
LEAST BARELY REACH VFR WITHIN A FEW HOURS OF SUNRISE. RAINFALL
YESTERDAY ALONG WITH INCREASING MOISTURE WILL POSSIBLY LEAD TO FOG
ISSUES AT MCB NEAR SUNRISE. RAIN CHANCES TO DECREASE AS THE
AFTERNOON PROGRESSES WITH LOWER CIGS LIFTING. MEFFER

&&

.MARINE...
COLD FRONT NORTH OF THE AREA MAY APPROACH THE COAST TODAY BUT IS
EXPECTED TO STALL OVER THE LAND AREAS. SCY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST
THROUGH SUNRISE EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER AS THE FRONT
APPROACHES. WINDS WILL SUBSIDE AS THE DAY PROGRESSES FROM NOON
ONWARD. A GENERALLY ZONAL PATTERN IF A LITTLE NW FLOW WILL BECOME
WELL ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THIS WEEK. SFC RIDGE WILL
EXTEND TO THE WESTERN GULF AGAIN TO KEEP ONSHORE FLOW IN PLACE.
MEFFER

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  80  64  85  68 /  50  10  20  10
BTR  82  66  86  68 /  50  10  20  10
MSY  84  69  87  73 /  50  10  20  10
GPT  83  70  83  70 /  50  10  20  10

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR GMZ555-575.

MS...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR GMZ575.

&&

24/RR
12/ME

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MSZ068-069-040715-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
120 AM CDT MON MAY 4 2009

...STRONG THUNDERSTORM MOVING EAST AFFECTING AMITE COUNTY...WILKINSON
COUNTY...

AT 119 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 3 MILES SOUTH OF DOLOROSA...MOVING EAST AT 30
MPH.

THE STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
  CROSBY BY 155 AM...
  8 MILES NORTH OF GLOSTER BY 200 AM...

THE PRIMARY THREATS FROM THIS STORM ARE FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND WIND
GUSTS TO NEAR 40 MPH...WHICH COULD DOWN TREE LIMBS AND BLOW AROUND
UNSECURED SMALL OBJECTS. SEEK SHELTER IN A SAFE HOME OR BUILDING
UNTIL THIS STORM HAS PASSED.

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