Severe Thunderstorm Warning 140, NWS New Orleans, LA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
324 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2009

.SHORT TERM...
A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MANAGED TO DEVELOP IN THE COASTAL MARSHES THIS
AFTERNOON WITH SOME PROPAGATION NOTED BEHIND THE OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES EMANATING NORTHWARD. THIS MAY INDUCE MORE COVERAGE
THROUGH 7 PM ACROSS THE LOWER PARISHES. ISOLATED SHOWERS STARTING
TO DEVELOP IN THE INTERIOR PARISHES AND PEARL RIVER COUNTY BUT
THEY REMAIN SMALL AND SHORT-LIVED WHILE MOVING SOUTHEAST.
MEANWHILE...TEMPERATURES ARE RUNNING 95 TO 100 ACROSS MUCH OF THE
AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND SHOULD DO SO AGAIN FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
WEAK FRONTAL ZONE NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA SHOULD SETTLE
SOUTHWARD FRIDAY BUT HAVE LITTLE IMPACT ASIDE FROM POSSIBLY
FOCUSING CONVECTION SOMEWHAT MORE EFFICIENTLY IF LAKE AND GULF
BREEZES BECOME INVOLVED. WILL ONLY MAINTAIN 10 PERCENT POPS FOR
FRIDAY THOUGH SOME UPWARD ADJUSTMENT MAY BE WARRANTED IF SOUNDINGS
START SHOWING DEEPER LAYERED MOISTURE. WEST WINDS ALOFT WILL LIMIT
MOISTURE DEPTH CONSIDERABLY. 24

.LONG TERM...
THE OVERALL TREND SHOULD BE FOR GRADUAL DEEPENING OF TROPICAL
MOISTURE OVER THE REGION TO BRING RAIN CHANCES BACK TO NORMAL
DAILY 30-40 PERCENT BY MONDAY AND TUESDAY. MEANWHILE...VERY HOT
TEMPERATURES AND LIMITED CONVECTIVE RELIEF SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH
SATURDAY WITH GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT DAY-TO-DAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. 24

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD AS DRY HIGH PRESSURE
LINGERS OVER THE AREA INHIBITING CONVECTION. A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS EVENING ACROSS EXTREME
SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA...BUT THE CHANCES OF RAIN AT ANY GIVEN LOCATION
REMAIN TOO LOW TO MENTION IN THE TAF. WEST OR SOUTHWEST WINDS OF
AROUND 10 KTS WILL CALM OVERNIGHT BEFORE BECOMING NORTHWEST AROUND 5
KTS IN THE MORNING AS A WEAK FRONTAL TROUGH STALLS JUST NORTH OF THE
AREA. 95

&&

.MARINE...
EXPECT WINDS TO REMAIN GENERALLY IN THE 5 TO 10 KT RANGE WITH SEAS
OF 1 TO 2 FEET THROUGH THE FOURTH OF JULY HOLIDAY. AS A WEAK FRONT
APPROACHES THE AREA...WIND SPEEDS WILL INCREASE SLIGHTLY WITH SEAS
ALSO BUILDING IN RESPONSE. DO NOT ANTICIPATE ANY HEADLINES AT THIS
TIME...BUT MARINERS SHOULD BE AWARE THAT AS THE FRONT STALLS OVER
THE COASTAL WATERS...THERE WILL BE ENHANCED CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. WINDS AND SEAS WILL BE
HIGHER IN THE VICINITY OF ANY THUNDERSTORMS. 95

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  71 101  73 101 /  10  10  10  10
BTR  77 101  77 100 /  10  10  10  10
MSY  79  98  79  98 /  10  10  10  10
GPT  80  97  78  96 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

24/RR
95/DM

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
536 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2009

GMZ530-550-555-570-575-LAZ034>040-046>050-056>070-MSZ068>071-077-
080>082-032245-
LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN AND LAKE MAUREPAS-
COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER LA OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER FROM 20 TO 60 NM-POINTE COUPEE-WEST FELICIANA-
EAST FELICIANA-ST. HELENA-TANGIPAHOA-WASHINGTON-ST. TAMMANY-
IBERVILLE-WEST BATON ROUGE-EAST BATON ROUGE-ASCENSION-LIVINGSTON-
ASSUMPTION-ST. JAMES-ST. JOHN THE BAPTIST-UPPER LAFOURCHE-
ST. CHARLES-UPPER JEFFERSON-ORLEANS-UPPER PLAQUEMINES-
UPPER ST. BERNARD-UPPER TERREBONNE-LOWER TERREBONNE-
LOWER LAFOURCHE-LOWER JEFFERSON-LOWER PLAQUEMINES-
LOWER ST. BERNARD-WILKINSON-AMITE-PIKE-WALTHALL-PEARL RIVER-
HANCOCK-HARRISON-JACKSON-
536 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2009

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF COASTAL WATERS
OF SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA AND SOUTH MISSISSIPPI...SOUTHEAST
LOUISIANA AND SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS EVENING
ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTH MISSISSIPPI...AND EAST CENTRAL...SOUTH
CENTRAL...AND SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA. THE VERY HOT TEMPERATURES AND
HUMID CONDITIONS COMBINED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND
WEAK SURFACE FRONT WILL FUEL ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH 8 OR 9 PM. THE MAIN THREATS FROM ANY SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE DAMAGING STRAIGHT LINE WINDS AND LARGE HAIL
UP TO QUARTER SIZE. FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
AMOUNTS OF ONE TO TWO INCHES IN A SHORT PERIOD OF TIME WILL ALSO
OCCUR WITH SOME OF THE STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

HOT CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WITH HIGHS
IN THE 90S TO NEAR 100 DEGREES AND HEAT INDICES IN THE 105 TO 110
DEGREE RANGE.

AN INCREASED CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED MONDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY OF NEXT WEEK AS A WEAK COLD FRONT STALLS ALONG THE GULF
COAST. ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE EACH
DAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED.

22/TD

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