River Flood Warning 1, NWS New Orleans, LA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
403 AM CST TUE JAN 6 2009

.SHORT TERM...
FORECAST AREA REMAINS BISECTED BY STATIONARY FRONTOLYTIC BOUNDARY
THAT UNDULATES BETWEEN KMCB AND KBTR THIS MORNING. BALMY
CONDITIONS WITH MID 60S DEWPOINTS RESIDE TO THE EAST OF THE
BOUNDARY WITH LOWER 50S DEWPOINTS TO THE WEST. SPC MAINTAINS A
SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE STORMS IN THE WARM SECTOR TODAY BUT MARINE
LAYER INFLUENCES MAY DAMPEN THINGS A BIT. A FEW CONDITIONS DO BEAR
WATCHING...NAMELY THE DEVELOPMENT OF A VERY STRONG LOW LEVEL JET
THIS AFTERNOON ALONG WITH LARGE SCALE LIFT PROVIDED BY 150+ KT JET
STREAK THAT SLIDES EAST IN TIME...PLACING THE FORECAST AREA FAIRLY
CLOSE TO RIGHT REAR QUADRANT DYNAMICS WHILE THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
CONTINUES TO AMPLIFY. WILL HIT SEVERE RISK IN HWO BUT HAD A LOWER
CONFIDENCE TO HIT IT HARD IN THE ZONE FORECAST. LOCAL CHAP OUTPUT
ALSO SHOWS STRONG BUT SUB-SEVERE ON ALL POINT LOCATION MODEL
SOUNDINGS PROBABLY IN DEFERENCE TO PRECIPITATION LOADING. WITH
TEMPERATURES WARMING TO NEAR RECORD HIGHS IN COMPRESSIONAL HEATING
A FEW STORMS MAY HAVE THE ABILITY TO APPROACH SEVERE...ESPECIALLY
WHEN COUPLED WITH HIGH SPEED SHEER LATER TODAY THOUGH DIRECTIONAL
SHEER MAY BE LIMITED. NEAR AND WEST OF BOUNDARY...TEMPERATURES
WILL BE TRICKY AND HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON PROXIMITY TO FRONTAL
ZONE...WHICH MAY NUDGE NORTHWEST BRIEFLY BEFORE ATTAINING COLD
FRONTOGENESIS AND FORWORD PROGRESSION ONCE THE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT
ARRIVES FROM THE WEST.

LIKED THE GFS IDEA OF DRYING THINGS RATHER ABRUPTLY FROM WEST TO
EAST PRIOR TO 12Z WEDNESDAY SO TRIED TO REFLECT A SHARP PROBABILITY
GRADIENT OVERNIGHT AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT.  /24

.LONG TERM...
PATTERN TRANSITIONS FROM DEEP TROUGHING ALOFT TO A MORE ZONAL THEN
SOUTHWESTERLY...SOMEWHAT ANTICYCLONIC...FLOW FROM THURSDAY ONWARD.
AT THE SURFACE...THE NEXT CANADIAN AIRMASS APPEARS TO MOVE THROUGH
THE AREA SATURDAY EVENING WITH SUNDAY AND MONDAY BEING A COUPLE OF COOL
DAYS...POSSIBLY WITH SOME OVERRUNNING PRECIPITATION MOVING INTO
THE AREA MONDAY. /24

&&

.AVIATION...
VISIBILITIES MUCH BETTER THIS MORNING COMPARED TO YESTERDAY EXCEPT AT
GPT WHICH HAS BEEN AT 1/4SM FOR SEVERAL HOURS. AN AREA OF SHOWERS
BETWEEN MSY AND BTR WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK NORTHEASTWARD. RAIN
COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE THROUGHOUT THE DAY WITH A LINE OF
THUNDERSTORMS PUSHING THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. A FEW STORMS COULD BE
STRONG WITH HEAVY RAINFALL...GUSTY WINDS AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING.
CLEARING BEHIND THE COLD FRONT LIKELY WONT OCCUR UNTIL LATE IN THE
PERIOD. S/SW WINDS WILL INCREASE TODAY AND GRADUALLY VEER TO
NORTHWEST. /MEFFER

 &&

.MARINE...
SFC TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER TEXAS PANHANDLE WILL TRACK SEWD ACROSS TX
AND THEN SHIFT NWWD THROUGH ARKANSAS. ONGOING SOUTHERLY WINDS AROUND
15KTS WILL CONTINUE TODAY AND LIKELY APPROACH 20KTS AS GRADIENT
TIGHTENS FROM APPROACHING TROUGH. THUS SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION
WAS CONTINUED THROUGH 00Z FOR ALL COASTAL WATERS AND ADDED THE TIDAL
LAKES. STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG AND AHEAD OF A
COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH THIS EVENING. HEAVY RAINFALL AND
GUSTY WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED WITH THE STRONGER STORMS. SW WINDS WILL
THEN INCREASE TO 20 TO 25 KTS BEHIND THE FRONT. HAVE ISSUED SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ALL COASTAL WATERS FROM 00Z TONIGHT THROUGH 00Z
THURS. SEAS WILL LIKELY BUILD TO 6 TO 8 FEET. SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL
QUICKLY MOVE INTO THE AREA WED NIGHT AND WINDS SHOULD DROP OFF
QUICKLY AFTER SUNSET. LIGHT WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE REMAINDER
OF THE WEEK. ONSHORE FLOW WILL RETURN FRIDAY AFTERNOON. ANOTHER COLD
FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA LATE THIS WEEKEND. UNCERTAINTY EXISTS
ON WHETHER THIS FRONT WILL STALL OR JUST PUSH THROUGH. /MEFFER

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  69  43  59  39 / 100  80   0   0
BTR  72  42  60  43 / 100  80   0   0
MSY  77  51  62  44 /  80  80   0   0
GPT  75  50  60  40 /  80  80   0   0

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM CST
     WEDNESDAY FOR GMZ550-555-570-575.

MS...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM CST
     WEDNESDAY FOR GMZ555-570-575.

&&

24/12

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