Severe Thunderstorm Warning 191, NWS Lake Charles, LA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1152 PM CST MON DEC 14 2009

.AVIATION...
AT THIS TIME...STORMS CONTINUE TO TRAIN INTO SOUTH CENTRAL
LOUISIANA THIS EVE MAINLY SOUTH OF LFT. A SCTD BAND OF LGHT SHWRS
IS FALLING ACRS SE TX AND SRN LA. CEILINGS AND BR/FG CONTS TO
BOUNCE AT ALL AVN SITES AND THIS WILL CONT WITH A DOWNWARD TREND
THRU THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS WE REMAIN IN THE WARM SECTOR AHEAD OF
A COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE THRU TMRW MRNG. THIS WILL IMPROVE VSBY
BUT CEILING WILL REMAIN LOW. OVERNIGHT MAINLY IFR WX EXPECTED BUT
THERE WILL BE SOME BREAKS IN THE CONDITIONS MAIN IN SOUTH CENTRAL
LA AROUND THE RAIN WITH MVFR/IFR.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1021 PM CST MON DEC 14 2009/

UPDATE...
RATHER MESSY WEATHER EVENT UNFOLDING THIS EVENING WITH
THUNDERSTORMS...HEAVY RAIN AND DENSE FOG EXPECTED TONIGHT AHEAD OF
A COLD FRONT...AND STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS TO DEVELOP OVER THE
COASTAL WATERS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT ON TUESDAY.

FIRST...DENSE FOG HAS DEVELOPED ACRS PORTIONS OF SE TX THIS
EVENING WITH OBSERVATIONS AT KBPT AND KORG SHOWING VISIBILITIES OF
ONE QUARTER TO ONE HALF MILE. VISIBILITIES DROPPED BRIEFLY AT KLCH
A COUPLE OF HOURS AGO...BUT HAVE SINCE RISEN. HOWEVER...STILL
THINK THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR AREAS OF DENSE FOG TO DEVELOP ACRS SW
LA TONIGHT AS MET AND MAV GUIDANCE INDICATES THIS ALSO.
THUS...HAVE ISSUED A DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR SE TX AND SW LA FOR
TONIGHT THROUGH 6 AM. THE COLD FRONT SHOULD PUSH THROUGH THE AREA
BY THIS TIME...AND EXPECT FOG TO DISSIPATE WITH THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE.

SECONDLY...A BAND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVED THROUGH THE
AREA TODAY...WITH ONE TO THREE INCHES OF RAINFALL NOTED ACRS THE
AREA. THIS BAND CURRENTLY EXTENDS FROM NEAR BTR SW TOWARD THE
COAST NEAR PECAN ISLAND AND OVER THE NW GULF. THIS BAND HAS SHOWED
LITTLE EWRD PROGRESS THIS EVENING. THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL HAS BEEN
OFFSHORE...WEAKENING SOMEWHAT AS IT MOVES INLAND...BUT WITH THIS
ACTIVITY CONTINUING TO TRAIN OVER THIS AREA /WHERE NEARLY 10
INCHES OF RAIN FELL LAST WEEK/ THE POTENTIAL FOR FLASH FLOODING
REMAINS HIGH AND FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS ARE CURRENTLY BEING
EXTENDED.

PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT IS CURRENTLY POISED
ACRS NRN LA INTO CNTRL TX...WITH SOME OVERRUNNING RAINS POSSIBLE
TUESDAY MORNING IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT. THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH
REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH TUESDAY AFTN.

FOR THE MARINE ZONES...HAVE ALSO ISSUED A DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR
THE COASTAL LAKES AND BAYS AS WELL AS COASTAL WATERS OUT TO 20 NM
AS WARM MOIST AIR OVERRIDES THE RELATIVELY COOLER WATERS. EXPECT
THE FOG TO DISSIPATE WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT...WITH
STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS DEVELOPING. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP TUESDAY MORNING AND PERSIST THROUGH AT
LEAST WEDNESDAY MORNING.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 420 PM CST MON DEC 14 2009/

DISCUSSION...RADAR STORM TOTAL PRECIP SHOWING RAINS OF 2 TO 3
INCHES ASSOCIATED WITH TRAINING CONVECTION ALONG A LINE FROM THE
JEFFERSON COUNTY COAST...TO THE LAKE CHARLES AREA AND FURTHER
NORTHEAST TO NEAR OPELOUSAS. WITH THE ONSET OF ACTIVITY WENT
AHEAD AND BUMPED UP THE BEGINNING TIME FOR OUR FLASH FLOOD WATCH
AND ON THE FLIP SIDE HAVE EXTENDED WATCH LATER IN THE DAY TUESDAY.
ADDITIONALLY EXTENDED WATCH INTO OUR NORTHEAST PARISHES OF CENTRAL
LOUISIANA. INITIAL THINKING WAS THAT HEAVY RAINS WOULD COME ALONG
WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE AND THAT MAY YET BE THE CASE. THUS A DEFINITE
CONCERN FOR FLOODING RAINS.

EXTENDED WATCH IN TIME WITH A SLIGHTLY SLOWER PROGRESSION OF
BOUNDARY. ALSO MODELS SHOWING SOME HEAVIER POST-FRONTAL RAINS
INTO TUESDAY. WARM FRONT RAPIDLY ADVANCING IN LATE THIS MORNING
AND THE INCREASING CONVECTION TOOK CARE OF AN EXTENDED FOG
PROBLEM...BUT COULD SEE REDEVELOPMENT BETWEEN RAINS OVERNIGHT. JUST
WORDED FORECAST WITH PATCHY FOG ALONG THE NEAR SHORE WATERS AND
INLAND.

EARLIER MODEL RUNS SUGGESTED AREA DRYING OUT FOR MID-WEEK BUT NOW
HAVE SEEN A COUPLE OF NEWER RUNS BY BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS INDICATING
AT LEAST A POTENTIAL FOR RAINS THURSDAY PARTICULARLY ALONG AND
SOUTH OF THE INTERSTATE 10 CORRIDOR AND INTO THE COASTAL WATERS.
THIS ASSOCIATED WITH YET ANOTHER LOW DEVELOPING ALONG THE FRONT AS
IT STALLS OVER THE CENTRAL GULF.

MARINE...A COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHWEST GULF TUESDAY WILL BE
FOLLOWED BY A STRONG OFFSHORE FLOW. NORTHERLY WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KNOTS
WITH HIGHER GUSTS WILL BUILD SEAS FROM 4 TO 6 FEET NEAR SHORE TO
6 TO 9 FEET OFFSHORE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  58  61  42  58  41 /  80  70  10  10  10
KBPT  57  60  44  58  41 /  80  60  10  10  10
KAEX  51  56  38  58  39 /  80  60  10  10  10
KLFT  60  60  42  59  41 /  80  80  10  10  10

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: ACADIA...ALLEN...AVOYELLES...CALCASIEU...CAMERON...
     EVANGELINE...IBERIA...JEFFERSON DAVIS...LAFAYETTE...LOWER
     ST. MARTIN...ST. LANDRY...ST. MARY...UPPER ST. MARTIN...
     VERMILION.

     DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST TUESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: CALCASIEU...CAMERON...JEFFERSON DAVIS.

TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: JEFFERSON...ORANGE.

     DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST TUESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: JEFFERSON...ORANGE.

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 AM TUESDAY TO 9 AM CST WEDNESDAY FOR
     THE FOLLOWING ZONES: CALCASIEU LAKE...COASTAL WATERS FROM
     CAMERON, LA TO HIGH ISLAND, TX OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS
     FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY TO CAMERON, LA OUT 20 NM...COASTAL
     WATERS FROM LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO INTRACOASTAL CITY,
     LA OUT 20 NM...SABINE LAKE...VERMILION BAY...WATERS FROM
     CAMERON, LA TO HIGH ISLAND, TX EXTENDING FROM 20 NM TO 60
     NM...WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY, LA TO CAMERON, LA
     EXTENDING FROM 20 NM TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM LOWER
     ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO INTRACOASTAL CITY, LA EXTENDING FROM
     20 NM TO 60 NM.

     DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST TUESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: CALCASIEU LAKE...COASTAL WATERS FROM CAMERON, LA TO
     HIGH ISLAND, TX OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM
     INTRACOASTAL CITY TO CAMERON, LA OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS
     FROM LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO INTRACOASTAL CITY, LA OUT
     20 NM...SABINE LAKE...VERMILION BAY.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
634 AM CST MON DEC 14 2009

LAZ027>033-041>045-051>055-TXZ180>182-201-215-216-151245-
VERNON-RAPIDES-AVOYELLES-BEAUREGARD-ALLEN-EVANGELINE-ST. LANDRY-
CALCASIEU-JEFFERSON DAVIS-ACADIA-LAFAYETTE-UPPER ST. MARTIN-
CAMERON-VERMILION-IBERIA-ST. MARY-LOWER ST. MARTIN-TYLER-JASPER-
NEWTON-HARDIN-JEFFERSON-ORANGE-
634 AM CST MON DEC 14 2009

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
LOUISIANA...SOUTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA...SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA...WEST
CENTRAL LOUISIANA AND SOUTHEAST TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

A DENSE FOG ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT THROUGH MID MORNING. WIDESPREAD
FOG...REDUCING VISIBILITY TO LESS THAN ONE QUARTER OF A MILE AT
TIMES...WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH MID MORNING. THE FOG
IS EXPECTED TO LIFT AFTER A FEW HOURS OF DAYTIME HEATING.

DENSE FOG IS LIKELY TO RETURN TO A GOOD PART OF THE AREA AGAIN
TONIGHT.

COVERAGE OF SHOWERS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE TODAY IN ADVANCE OF A
COLD FRONT THAT IS FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA ON TUESDAY.
TWO DAY RAINFALL TOTALS FROM TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON ARE
EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM 1 TO 3 INCHES...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER
AMOUNTS POSSIBLE. THE HEAVIEST RAIN IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR LATE
TONIGHT THROUGH NOON TUESDAY AS THE FRONT NEARS AND MOVES
THROUGH THE AREA. A FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT TONIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY MORNING GENERALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE INTERSTATE 10
CORRIDOR...WHERE THE HIGHEST RAINFALL TOTALS ARE EXPECTED.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

RAINFALL FROM MONDAY NIGHT WILL CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY MORNING AS
THE COLD FRONT PROGRESSES THROUGH THE AREA. THE HEAVIEST
RAINFALL IS LIKELY TO OCCUR TUESDAY MORNING...ESPECIALLY OVER
PARTS OF SOUTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA...WHERE THE RISK OF FLOODING WILL
BE GREATEST.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
STORM SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUESTED TO MONITOR POTENTIAL
FLOODING TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY. PLEASE RELAY ANY REPORTS OF STREET
FLOODING OR FLASH FLOODING TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OR
LOCAL LAW ENFORCEMENT.

GMZ430-432-435-450-452-455-470-472-475-151245-
SABINE LAKE-CALCASIEU LAKE-VERMILION BAY-
COASTAL WATERS FROM CAMERON, LA TO HIGH ISLAND, TX OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY TO CAMERON, LA OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO INTRACOASTAL CITY,
LA OUT 20 NM-
WATERS FROM CAMERON, LA TO HIGH ISLAND, TX EXTENDING FROM 20 NM
TO 60 NM-
WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY, LA TO CAMERON, LA EXTENDING FROM
20 NM TO 60 NM-
WATERS FROM LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO INTRACOASTAL CITY, LA
EXTENDING FROM 20 NM TO 60 NM-
634 AM CST MON DEC 14 2009

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF THE NORTHWEST
GULF OF MEXICO.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

AREAS OF FOG...DENSE AT TIMES...WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE GULF
WATERS TODAY AND TONIGHT. A DENSE FOG ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT UNTIL
NOON TODAY FOR THE NEARSHORE WATERS...AND COASTAL LAKES AND BAYS.
AN EXTENSION IN TIME OR EXPANSION IN AREA MAY BE REQUIRED.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE GULF WATERS ON TUESDAY...WHICH
IS EXPECTED TO BRING AN END TO ANY FOG. HOWEVER...STRONG NORTH
WINDS...GUSTING NEAR GALE FORCE BEYOND 20 NM...AND ROUGH SEAS WILL
LIKELY REQUIRE A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY AND/OR A GALE WARNING.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
MARINE INTERESTS SHOULD USE CAUTION THIS MORNING AND BE ALERT FOR
ABRUPT CHANGES IN VISIBILITY.

13

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
108 AM CST TUE DEC 15 2009

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0300 PM     FLASH FLOOD      LAKE CHARLES            30.21N 93.20W
12/14/2009                   CALCASIEU          LA   PUBLIC

            WIFE OF OFF DUTY NWS EMPLOYEE TOOK PICTURES OF STREET
            FLOODING ON EAST PRIEN LAKE RD...LOUISIANA AVE NEAR THE
            I-210 UNDERPASS...AND ENTERPRISE BLVD. SOME VEHICLES WERE
            STALLED IN THE FLOOD WATER.

&&

13