Severe Thunderstorm Warning 114, NWS Lake Charles, LA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
429 PM CDT TUE MAY 26 2009

.DISCUSSION...
4KM WRF HAS DONE A GENERALLY GOOD JOB DEPICTING THE DEVELOPMENT
AND MOVEMENT OF THE THUNDERSTORMS OVER EAST TEXAS...AND HAVE
RELIED ON IT HEAVILY FOR THE FORECAST THIS EVENING. THE TIMING OF
THE WRF WAS A LITTLE FASTER THAN WHAT HAS TRANSPIRED ON RADAR...SO
WILL IN TURN SLOW THE EASTWARD PROGRESSION. ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED
TO BE MOSTLY EAST OF THE SABINE RIVER BY 00Z...THEN CONTINUE
EAST-NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE REST OF LOUISIANA...AND EXIT THE
AREA PRIOR TO MIDNIGHT. WRF SHOWS GREATEST COVERAGE OVER CENTRAL
LOUISIANA...SO WILL CARRY HIGHEST CHANCES HERE AND TAPER DOWN TO
JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE OVER THE COASTAL WATERS.

GFS/ECMWF/NAM IN GENERALLY GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE COOL FRONT
PASSING THROUGH THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY...A
LITTLE EARLIER THAN WAS PROGGED YESTERDAY. IN ADVANCE OF THE
FRONT...THERE CONTINUES TO BE UNCERTAINTY WITH THE
TIMING/PLACEMENT OF CONVECTIVE CLUSTERS THAT MAY AFFECT US
THE GFS CONTINUES TO SUFFER FROM CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK...BUT HAS
ALSO REMAINED SOMEWHAT CONSISTENT WITH AN MCS AFFECTING THE
SOUTHERN ZONES AND COASTAL WATERS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT. THE
LATEST RUN OF THE ECMWF HAS LOST THIS FEATURE ENTIRELY...WHILE THE
NAM GENERALLY SUPPORTS THE GFS. WILL CONTINUE WITH THE LIKELY POPS
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND INCREASE POPS SLIGHTLY OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS AND I-10 CORRIDOR SOUTH FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY
MORNING.

MODELS SHOW MOISTURE LINGERING BEHIND THE FRONT ON THURSDAY...SO
WILL CONTINUE WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. OTHERWISE...RAIN
CHANCES WILL COME TO AND END...PROBABLY A LITTLE SOONER THAN
FORECAST...AS DRIER AIR FILTERS INTO THE AREA BEHIND THE FRONT.

FRIDAY AND THE WEEKEND APPEAR RAIN FREE WITH INITIALLY DEEP
NORTHERLY FLOW AROUND A TROF DIGGING INTO THE SOUTHEAST
CONUS...FOLLOWED BY UPPER RIDGING TRANSLATING EAST ACROSS THE
REGION ON SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
 DAILY CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED OVER
THE COASTAL WATERS THROUGH THURSDAY WHILE A LIGHT TO MODERATE
SOUTH FLOW CONTINUES. A LATE SEASON COOL FRONT WILL ADVANCE
THROUGH THE NORTHWEST GULF ON THURSDAY BRINGING A BRIEF OFFSHORE
FLOW. DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL BECOME REESTABLISHED FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND...WITH RELATIVELY LIGHT
WINDS AND CALM SEAS PREVAILING.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  72  86  70  87 /  50  60  40  30
KBPT  72  86  70  88 /  30  60  40  20
KAEX  70  87  67  88 /  60  60  30  20
KLFT  70  86  70  86 /  50  60  40  40

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

PUBLIC/MARINE...13