Flash Flood Watch 1, NWS Lake Charles, LA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
136 PM CDT FRI APR 17 2009

.AVIATION...
SCT TSRA BEGINNING TO DEVELOP OVER C LA NEAR ARA TERMINAL AT THE
MOMENT...OTHERWISE NO PRECIP YET ACROSS BPT/LCH/LFT/ARA TERMINALS.
THIS WILL CHANGE SHORTLY AS SCT TSRA IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE MAIN AREA OF TSRA OVER C TX AT THE MOMENT.
EXPECT THIS AREA...OR  TO SLOWLY MIGRATE E THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. TEMPO TSRA WITH MVFR CEILINGS FOR ALL SITES THIS AFTERNOON
AND EARLY EVENING FOR THE ABOVE MENTIONED. FOR SAT MORNING...STARTED
PREDOMINATE TSRA AND MVFR CEILINGS FROM 15Z ONWARD FOR EXPECTED
LARGE TSRA COMPLEX EXPECTED TO DEVELOP.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 700 AM CDT FRI APR 17 2009/

AVIATION...
A STRONG STORM SYSTEM WILL BEGIN AFFECTING THE AREA TODAY. LOW
PRESSURE OVER WESTERN TEXAS WILL DEEPEN OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS
PRODUCING STRONG SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS ACROSS THE AREA. WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO 15-20 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 25-30 KNOTS
DURING THE MORNING. MVFR CIGS ARE ALREADY NOTED AT KLCH AND KBPT
AND ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AT THE REMAINING TAF SITES BETWEEN
15-18Z. BY THIS AFTERNOON...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
TO DEVELOP AS A DISTURBANCE MOVES OVER THE AREA. WENT WITH TEMPOS
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON FOR KBPT AND KLCH WHERE IT LOOKS LIKE BEST
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE AS CONVECTION
SPREADS IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST...TAPERING TO PROB30S FOR LATE
AFTERNOON AT ALL TAF SITES. THINGS SHOULD SETTLE DOWN SOME
OVERNIGHT BEFORE ANOTHER ROUND AGAIN SATURDAY...WITH WINDS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN AROUND 10-15 KNOTS. 24

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 441 AM CDT FRI APR 17 2009/

SYNOPSIS...

HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BREAK DOWN ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF COAST
STATES...PERMITTING A GULF OF MEXICO WARM FRONT TO SWING NORTHWARD
.ADVANCING THROUGH SOUTHEAST TEXAS/SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA BY FRIDAY
AFTERNOON.

FURTHER-UP...A CUT-OFF LOW CONTINUES TO WOBBLE ACROSS THE 4-CORNERS
REGION OF THE GREAT BASIN. THIS HIGHLY BAROCLINIC SYSTEM IS FORECAST
TO MOVE EAST...REACHING MISSOURI ON SUNDAY.

A FEW SPOKES OF ENERGY (OR SHORTWAVES) ARE ROTATING AROUND THE
CUT-OFF LOW. ONE WAVETRAIN TRACK FOR THE ROTATING SHORTWAVES IS
LOCATED ALONG A SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS TO NORTHWEST LOUISIANA LINE.
THIS TRACK WILL MOVE EAST IN TANDEM WITH THE CUT-OFF LOW.

DISCUSSION...

FOR TODAY...WARM FRONTAL RAIN WITH A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS
WILL GIVE WAY TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
AFTERNOON...AS UNSTABLE POST WARM-FRONTAL AIR IS LIFTED BY PASSING
SHORTWAVES ALOFT. HEAVY RAIN IS LIKELY ACROSS SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND
SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA. SEVERE STORMS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE.

CLOUD COVER...FRESH WINDS...AND RAIN SHOULD HOLD THE AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S.

FOR TONIGHT...BAY-OF-CAMPECHE AIR WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM IN...
FUELING ONGOING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. VERY HEAVY RAIN IS
POSSIBLE WITH THE APPROACH OF THE AFOREMENTIONED WAVETRAIN TRACK...
AN ITS ASSOCIATED LIFT.

FOR SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...THE WAVETRAIN TRACK WILL BE
TRANSLATING ACROSS SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND LOUISIANA. THE HEAVIEST RAIN
IS ANTICIPATED IN THIS TIME PERIOD. BELIEVE THAT BASIN-AVERAGED
AMOUNTS WILL BE RUNNING FROM 2 TO 3 INCHES...WITH SPOT AMOUNTS FROM
4 TO 7 INCHES. LOCALIZED FLOODING IS POSSIBLE.

WILL HOLD OFF ISSUING A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR NOW. WOULD LIKE TO SEE
A BETTER AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE HPC QPF (QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION
FIELDS) AND THE GFS QPF.

BY SUNDAY...THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE COMING TO AN END
ON SUNDAY WITH PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT.

MARINE...

FRESH EASTERLY WINDS WILL TURN MORE OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST WITH THE
PASSAGE OF AFOREMENTIONED WARM FRONT. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL
REMAIN IN EFFECT THROUGH SATURDAY.

ALSO...THE ACTUAL TIDES WILL BE ON THE INCREASE...RUNNING ABOUT A
FOOT ABOVE THE PREDICTED TIDES THROUGH SATURDAY.

HYDROLOGY...
MINOR FLOODING IS FORECASTED FOR A FEW LOCATIONS ON THE CALCASIEU
RIVER THAT ARE INFLUENCED BY THE TIDES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  68  77  65  81  57 /  70  70  90  10  10
KBPT  68  77  66  83  58 /  80  70  90  10  10
KAEX  63  74  63  77  52 /  70  70  90  10  10
KLFT  63  76  66  77  58 /  70  70  90  10  10

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: CALCASIEU...CAMERON...VERMILION.

TX...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: JEFFERSON...ORANGE.

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM CDT SUNDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM CAMERON, LA TO HIGH ISLAND, TX
     OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY TO
     CAMERON, LA OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM LOWER
     ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO INTRACOASTAL CITY, LA OUT 20 NM...
     WATERS FROM CAMERON, LA TO HIGH ISLAND, TX EXTENDING FROM
     20 NM TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY, LA TO
     CAMERON, LA EXTENDING FROM 20 NM TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM
     LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO INTRACOASTAL CITY, LA EXTENDING
     FROM 20 NM TO 60 NM.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
510 AM CDT FRI APR 17 2009

GMZ430-432-435-450-452-455-470-472-475-LAZ027>033-041>045-051>055-
TXZ180>182-201-215-216-181100-
SABINE LAKE-CALCASIEU LAKE-VERMILION BAY-
COASTAL WATERS FROM CAMERON, LA TO HIGH ISLAND, TX OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY TO CAMERON, LA OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO INTRACOASTAL CITY,
LA OUT 20 NM-
WATERS FROM CAMERON, LA TO HIGH ISLAND, TX EXTENDING FROM 20 NM
TO 60 NM-
WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY, LA TO CAMERON, LA EXTENDING FROM
20 NM TO 60 NM-
WATERS FROM LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO INTRACOASTAL CITY, LA
EXTENDING FROM 20 NM TO 60 NM-VERNON-RAPIDES-AVOYELLES-BEAUREGARD-
ALLEN-EVANGELINE-ST. LANDRY-CALCASIEU-JEFFERSON DAVIS-ACADIA-
LAFAYETTE-UPPER ST. MARTIN-CAMERON-VERMILION-IBERIA-ST. MARY-
LOWER ST. MARTIN-TYLER-JASPER-NEWTON-HARDIN-JEFFERSON-ORANGE-
510 AM CDT FRI APR 17 2009

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF THE NORTHWEST
GULF OF MEXICO...CENTRAL LOUISIANA...SOUTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA...
SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA...WEST CENTRAL LOUISIANA AND SOUTHEAST TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME MORE NUMEROUS THIS
AFTERNOON. RAIN WILL BE HEAVY AT TIMES.

SEVERE STORMS AND LOCALIZED FLOODING ARE POSSIBLE TONIGHT...
ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHEAST TEXAS.

OTHERWISE...A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THE COASTAL
WATERS. A LAKE WIND ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR COASTAL COUNTIES AND PARISHES
BETWEEN JEFFERSON AND VERMILION.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY ON SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT.

BASIN-AVERAGED RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE RUNNING FROM 2 TO 3 INCHES
...WITH SPOT RAINFALL AMOUNTS FROM 4 TO 7 INCHES. LOCALIZED
FLOODING IS POSSIBLE. ALSO...SOME STORMS MAY REACH SEVERE LIMITS.

RAINS WILL BE ENDING ON SUNDAY WITH PASSAGE OF COLD FRONT.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED FROM FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT.