Flash Flood Warning 5, NWS Lake Charles, LA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
417 PM CDT SAT APR 18 2009

.DISCUSSION...
VERY INTERESTING SFC FEATURE WITH ROTATION IN CHAMBERS LOOKS TO
MOVE INTO JEFFERSON AFTER 5 PM WILL MONITOR THIS STORM CLOSELY.

NEARLY STATIONARY UPPER LVL LOW SPINNING OVER SE COLORADO HAS
KICKED OUT ANOTHER IN A SERIES OF SHRTWVS THAT IS CURRENTLY
TRAVERSING COASTAL TEXAS. SFC TROF IS PROVIDING THE FOCUS FOR
TSTM DEVELOPMENT WITH THE LOW LVL JET DRAGGING MOISTURE INTO SE
TX AND SRN LA. PRECIP WATER RUNNING ABOUT 1.8 INCHES. AT THIS
TIME WITH CAPES AT 1000J/KG AND HEL OF 223 M2/S2. THIS SFC
BOUNDARY IS PROGRESSING SLOWLY ALLOWING STORMS TO TRAIN ACROSS SE
TX WITH RAINFALL TOTALS IN EXCESS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES IN TYLER...
JASPER... AND HARDIN COUNTIES. A STRONGER STORM IS PRODUCING
RAINFALL TOTALS FROM 3 TO 5 INCHES IN CHAMBERS COUNTY...THIS STORM
IS MOVING INTO JEFFERSON COUNTY AT THIS TIME AND A FFW HAS BEEN
ISSUED.

STORMS TONIGHT WILL CONTINUE A SLOW MARCH EASTWARD WITH TORRENTIAL
RAINFALL EXPECTED OVER PORTIONS OF SE TX AND SW LA. A FLASH FLOOD
WATCH FOR THIS REGION WILL CONTINUE UNTIL MIDNIGHT. A TORNADO
WATCH IS ALSO IN EFFECT AS SHEAR OVER SE TX AND SRN LOUISIANA WILL
ALSO SUPPORT TORNADO DEVELOPMENT THIS EVENING. STORMS ENDING
OVER SE TX AND EXTREME SW LA AROUND MIDNIGHT AND AFTER MIDNIGHT
FOR S-CNTRL LA.

UPPER LVL LOW LOOKS TO GET A KICK OFF TO THE EAST AS NRN JET DROPS
DOWN INTO SOUTHERN PLAINS STATES TOMORROW. THIS WILL PUSH THROUGH
A FRONTAL SYSTEM FINALLY DRYING OUT SE TX TMRW MRNG AND SRN LA BY
THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  66  80  56  76  52 /  80  10  10   0   0
KBPT  65  81  56  76  52 /  80  10  10   0   0
KAEX  65  78  53  72  48 /  80  10  10   0   0
KLFT  66  80  56  75  50 /  80  20  10   0   0

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL MIDNIGHT CDT TONIGHT FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: ALLEN...BEAUREGARD...CALCASIEU...RAPIDES...VERNON.

TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL MIDNIGHT CDT TONIGHT FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES:HARDIN...JASPER...JEFFERSON...NEWTON...ORANGE...
     TYLER.

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM CDT SUNDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: CALCASIEU LAKE...COASTAL WATERS FROM CAMERON, LA TO
     HIGH ISLAND, TX OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM
     INTRACOASTAL CITY TO CAMERON, LA OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS
     FROM LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO INTRACOASTAL CITY, LA OUT
     20 NM...SABINE LAKE...VERMILION BAY...WATERS FROM CAMERON,
     LA TO HIGH ISLAND, TX EXTENDING FROM 20 NM TO 60 NM...
     WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY, LA TO CAMERON, LA EXTENDING
     FROM 20 NM TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER
     TO INTRACOASTAL CITY, LA EXTENDING FROM 20 NM TO 60 NM.

&&

K. KUYPER

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
546 AM CDT SAT APR 18 2009

GMZ430-432-435-450-452-455-470-472-475-LAZ027>033-041>045-051>055-
TXZ180>182-201-215-216-191100-
SABINE LAKE-CALCASIEU LAKE-VERMILION BAY-
COASTAL WATERS FROM CAMERON, LA TO HIGH ISLAND, TX OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY TO CAMERON, LA OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO INTRACOASTAL CITY,
LA OUT 20 NM-
WATERS FROM CAMERON, LA TO HIGH ISLAND, TX EXTENDING FROM 20 NM
TO 60 NM-
WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY, LA TO CAMERON, LA EXTENDING FROM
20 NM TO 60 NM-
WATERS FROM LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO INTRACOASTAL CITY, LA
EXTENDING FROM 20 NM TO 60 NM-VERNON-RAPIDES-AVOYELLES-BEAUREGARD-
ALLEN-EVANGELINE-ST. LANDRY-CALCASIEU-JEFFERSON DAVIS-ACADIA-
LAFAYETTE-UPPER ST. MARTIN-CAMERON-VERMILION-IBERIA-ST. MARY-
LOWER ST. MARTIN-TYLER-JASPER-NEWTON-HARDIN-JEFFERSON-ORANGE-
546 AM CDT SAT APR 18 2009

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF THE NORTHWEST
GULF OF MEXICO...CENTRAL LOUISIANA...SOUTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA...
SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA...WEST CENTRAL LOUISIANA AND SOUTHEAST TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT
STRONG STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE SLOWLY EAST THROUGH TONIGHT. ANOTHER
DISTURBANCE ALOFT WILL MOVE OVER THE AREA...PRODUCING NUMEROUS
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THIS ACTIVITY WILL BEGIN DURING THE
MORNING...INCREASING DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.
STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SEVERE WEATHER AND FLOODING.

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TODAY. THE PRIMARY
SEVERE WEATHER THREATS WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS...HAIL AND POSSIBLY
ISOLATED TORNADOES.

THERE IS ALSO A HIGH POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING...MAINLY NORTH AND
WEST OF A LINE FROM BEAUMONT TEXAS AND LAKE CHARLES LOUISIANA TO
ALEXANDRIA LOUISIANA. DEEP COPIOUS MOISTURE IS IN PLACE ACROSS THE
REGION...AND STORMS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE VERY HEAVY
RAINFALL. WIDESPREAD AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 3 INCHES OF RAIN IS EXPECTED
THROUGH TONIGHT...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS OF 5 TO 8 INCHES IN
AREAS WHERE TRAINING OF STORMS OCCURS.

LASTLY...A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THE COASTAL
WATERS FROM 20 TO 60 NM OUT. WINDS AROUND 20 KNOTS THIS MORNING
WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE TODAY...BUT SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
ELEVATED BETWEEN 5 AND 8 FEET. IN ADDITION...WINDS AND SEAS WILL
BE HIGHER NEAR SHOWERS AND STORMS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH ON SUNDAY...PUSHING THE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OFF TO THE EAST. DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL
FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED THROUGH TONIGHT.