Flash Flood Warning 19, NWS Lake Charles, LA

000 
WGUS74 KLCH 040019
FFSLCH

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
719 PM CDT SUN MAY 3 2009

LAC003-009-011-039-079-097-115-TXC241-351-457-040028-
/O.EXP.KLCH.FF.W.0019.000000T0000Z-090504T0015Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
RAPIDES LA-VERNON LA-AVOYELLES LA-EVANGELINE LA-ALLEN LA-
BEAUREGARD LA-ST. LANDRY LA-NEWTON TX-JASPER TX-TYLER TX-
719 PM CDT SUN MAY 3 2009

...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING HAS EXPIRED FOR CENTRAL TYLER...NORTHERN
JASPER AND CENTRAL NEWTON COUNTIES...AND NORTHERN ST. LANDRY...
BEAUREGARD...ALLEN...EVANGELINE...SOUTHERN AVOYELLES...SOUTHERN
VERNON AND SOUTHERN RAPIDES PARISHES...

WHILE THE FLOOD WARNING HAS BEEN ALLOWED TO EXPIRE SOME SMALL STREAM 
FLOODING MAY BE CONTINUING. ALSO THE LARGER CREEKS AND STREAMS MAY 
BEGIN TO EXPIERENCE SOME FLOODING AS WELL. ADDITIONAL FLOOD WARNINGS 
MAY BE NEEDED LATTER THIS EVENING TO COVER THE LONGER TERM FLOODING 
POTENTIAL. 

LAT...LON 3100 9466 3096 9326 3106 9176 3102 9176
      3098 9180 3088 9179 3086 9181 3085 9179
      3082 9180 3080 9177 3077 9177 3054 9250
      3055 9325 3070 9459

$$

BRAZZELL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1242 PM CDT SUN MAY 3 2009

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF ISSUANCE...MAIN FORECAST ISSUES WILL REVOLVE AROUND TIMING
OF THUNDERSTORMS. OUTFLOW BOUNDARY CURRENTLY LOCATED JUST NORTH OF
THE I-10 CORRIDOR WITH NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS TRAINING BEHIND IT.
CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH OUTFLOW TO THE SOUTH GRADUALLY
WITH OUTFLOW BOUNDARY REACHING THE COAST LATER THIS AFTERNOON.
THUS TSRA WITH IFR CEILINGS APPEAR LIKELY AT ALL SOUTHERN TAF
SITES THIS AFTERNOON AND HAVE ADDED TEMPO AND FM GROUPS TO ACCOUNT
FOR THE ACTIVITY. AMENDMENTS ARE LIKELY BASED ON LATEST RADAR
TRENDS. KAEX COULD SEE SOME -RA FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS BUT
MOST TSRA SHOULD STAY SOUTH OF THAT AIRPORT. TSRA EXPECTED TO END
LATE THIS AFTERNOON WITH VFR CONDITIONS RETURNING. THE WIDESPREAD
RAINFALL ACROSS THE REGION WILL LIKELY LEAD TO LOWERING CEILINGS
AND POSSIBLE FOG AFTER 6Z TONIGHT.

SHAMBURGER

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1159 AM CDT SUN MAY 3 2009/

DISCUSSION...
UPDATED MOST ELEMENTS IN THE FIRST PERIOD TO DEAL WITH EAST TO
WEST ORIENTED BAND OF THUNDERSTORMS...WHICH IS NOT MOVING ANYWHERE
FAST. A FLASH FLOOD OR FLOOD WATCH WAS PONDERED...BUT THE AREA
UNDER CONSIDERATION IS ALREADY UNDER WARNINGS...SO A WATCH SEEMED
LIKE A MOOT POINT. BAND SHOULD GENERALLY CONTINUE SINKING SLOWLY
SWD INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 757 AM CDT SUN MAY 3 2009/

UPDATE...HAVE UPDATED ZONES/GRIDS WITH TORNADO WATCH #232 FOR
ALONG AND NORTH OF LOUISIANA I-10. WATCH IN EFFECT UNTIL 3 PM.
WCN ALREADY OUT.

MARCOTTE

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 557 AM CDT SUN MAY 3 2009/

AVIATION...
STORMS DRAGGING ACROSS CENTRAL LOUISIANA AT THIS TIME WILL EXIT TO
THE EAST WHILE A SECOND STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO EASTERN
TEXAS. THIS LATEST STORM SYSTEM IS MOVING EAST AT 45 MPH. AT THIS
TIME THE STORM COMPLEX WILL SWEEP ACROSS TYLER...JASPER AND
NEWTON COUNTIES AROUND 7 AM AND INTO BEAUREGARD...VERNON
PARISHES BEFORE 8 AM. AS THE STORM SYSTEM MOVES TO THE EAST IT WILL
MOVE OUT OF THE COLD SECTOR AND INTO WARMER MORE UNSTABLE AIR
WHICH WILL MEAN STRONGER STORMS WILL DEVELOP.

BPT..LCH AND FINALLY LFT AND ARA WILL SEE SOME STORM DEVELOPMENT
ALTHOUGH THE STRONGEST STORMS WILL SWEEP WELL TO THE NORTH OF
THESE LOCATIONS. BUT WILL MONITOR THE SOUTHWARD PROGRESSION.
MVFR/IFR FOR CLOUDS AND WX FOR AEX. MVFR FOR BPT...LCH...LFT AND
ARA FOR CLOUDS AND SHWRS.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 532 AM CDT SUN MAY 3 2009/

UPDATE...MCS CURRENTLY OVER EAST CENTRAL TEXAS TRACKING RAPIDLY
EAST. ACTIVITY HAS BEEN ELEVATED BUT EXPECTED TO BECOME SURFACE
BASED TAPPING INTO SOME ADDITIONAL MOISTURE/INSTABILITY. SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM WATCH #231 IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 AM CDT. INCLUDES OUR
INTERIOR SOUTHEAST TEXAS COUNTIES. ALSO BEAUREGARD...VERNON AND
RAPIDES OF WEST CENTRAL LOUISIANA.

MARCOTTE

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 412 AM CDT SUN MAY 3 2009/

DISCUSSION...ANOTHER IN A SERIES OF MCSS CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS
THE ARKLATEX REGION. PROPAGATION RESULTING IN A SOUTHWARD
EXPANSION OF CONVECTION INTO CENTRAL LOUISIANA AND THE LAKES AREA
OF INTERIOR SOUTHEAST TEXAS. POST FRONTAL DEVELOPMENT ALSO OCCURRING
OVER CENTRAL/NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS.

FAIR WEATHER PATTERN COMING TO AN END TODAY. MID LEVEL TROF
MOVING THROUGH THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL BE SUFFICIENT TO ADVANCE
A PERSISTENT FRONTAL BOUNDARY INTO THE FORECAST AREA
OVERNIGHT...STALLING NEAR THE COAST MONDAY THEN RAPIDLY WASHING
OUT. ALONG AND AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM AMPLE MOISTURE IN PLACE WITH
PROGGED PRECIPITABLE WATERS RUNNING AROUND 1.7 INCHES...WELL ABOVE
THE NORM FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. WITH CONCERN FOR HEAVY
RAINFALL...HAVE INGESTED HPC QPF INTO GRIDS. STORM TOTAL PRECIP
RANGING FROM A MAXIMUM OF 2 INCHES ACROSS THE NORTHEAST PORTION OF
THE FORECAST AREA DOWN TO NEAR 0.5 INCHES OVER COASTAL SOUTHEAST
TEXAS. WAS CONTEMPLATING THE NEED FOR A FLOOD WATCH OVER OUR
NORTHERN TIER BUT CURRENT NUMBERS BELOW FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE OF
3/4/5 INCHES FOR 1/3/6 HOURS. SPC MAINTAINING THE ENTIRE AREA IN
SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE EXPECTING SQUALL LINE DEVELOPMENT
ALONG/AHEAD OF FRONT. WIND DAMAGE APPEARS FAVORABLE FROM
UNIDIRECTIONAL WIND PROFILES...AS WELL AS HAIL AND A FEW
TORNADOES.

RAINS TAPER OFF FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST THROUGH MONDAY.
EXACTLY WHERE FRONT WILL END UP IS PARTICULARLY SUSPECT AT THIS
TIME FROM NUMEROUS COLD POOLS SETTING UP FROM PREVIOUS AND ONGOING
CONVECTION. THUS WHETHER WE ACTUALLY SEE SOME LOWER
DEWPOINTS/HUMIDITY FILTER INTO THE SOUTHERN SECTIONS REMAINS
QUESTIONABLE. RETURN FLOW SETS UP TUESDAY WITH ANY COOLER OR DRIER
COMING TO AN END.

REMAINDER OF THE WEEK...WILL BE LOOKING FOR A DRY WEATHER PATTERN
WITH THE EXCEPTION OF WEDNESDAY WHEN NEXT IMPULSE APPROACHES. AT
THIS TIME IT APPEARS MAIN ENERGY AND RAINS WILL REMAIN NORTH OF
THE FORECAST AREA SO LOW END POPS WILL BE MAINTAINED. OTHERWISE
EXPECTING TEMPERATURES ABOVE THE NORM.

MARINE...OUR PERSISTENT SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL BE BRIEFLY
INTERRUPTED MONDAY AS A COLD FRONT DROPS INTO THE NORTHWEST GULF.
THIS BOUNDARY WILL RAPIDLY WASH OUT WITH A ONSHORE FLOW BECOMING
REESTABLISHED TUESDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  70  81  66  86  70 /  40  40  10  10  10
KBPT  67  81  66  86  72 /  40  30  10  10  10
KAEX  64  79  61  86  69 /  40  30  10  10  10
KLFT  70  80  65  87  70 /  40  50  10  10  10

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
454 AM CDT SUN MAY 3 2009

GMZ430-432-435-450-452-455-470-472-475-LAZ027>033-041>045-051>055-
TXZ180>182-201-215-216-041000-
SABINE LAKE-CALCASIEU LAKE-VERMILION BAY-
COASTAL WATERS FROM CAMERON, LA TO HIGH ISLAND, TX OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY TO CAMERON, LA OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO INTRACOASTAL CITY,
LA OUT 20 NM-
WATERS FROM CAMERON, LA TO HIGH ISLAND, TX EXTENDING FROM 20 NM
TO 60 NM-
WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY, LA TO CAMERON, LA EXTENDING FROM
20 NM TO 60 NM-
WATERS FROM LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO INTRACOASTAL CITY, LA
EXTENDING FROM 20 NM TO 60 NM-VERNON-RAPIDES-AVOYELLES-BEAUREGARD-
ALLEN-EVANGELINE-ST. LANDRY-CALCASIEU-JEFFERSON DAVIS-ACADIA-
LAFAYETTE-UPPER ST. MARTIN-CAMERON-VERMILION-IBERIA-ST. MARY-
LOWER ST. MARTIN-TYLER-JASPER-NEWTON-HARDIN-JEFFERSON-ORANGE-
454 AM CDT SUN MAY 3 2009

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF THE NORTHWEST
GULF OF MEXICO...CENTRAL LOUISIANA...SOUTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA...
SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA...WEST CENTRAL LOUISIANA AND SOUTHEAST TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT
ACTIVE WEATHER IS EXPECTED ALONG AND AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT
WILL ADVANCE ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. WIND PROFILES AND
INSTABILITY ARE FAVORABLE FOR A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. PRIMARY
THREAT WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL...BUT ISOLATED TORNADOES
WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE. ALONG WITH THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WILL
BE THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINS PARTICULARLY NORTH OF INTERSTATE
10 WHERE 1 TO 2 INCHES WILL BE COMMON WITH ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS.
SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DIMINISH MONDAY WITH AN OVERALL DRY
PATTERN EXPECTED THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED TODAY AND TONIGHT.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
252 PM CDT SUN MAY 03 2009

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0245 PM     HAIL             KINDER                  30.49N 92.85W
05/03/2009  E0.50 INCH       ALLEN              LA   PUBLIC

            PUBLIC REPORTS DIME SIZE HAIL ON JESSE JOHNSON RD IN
            KINDER.

&&

MGRIFFIN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
254 PM CDT SUN MAY 03 2009

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0247 PM     HAIL             2 S KINDER              30.46N 92.85W
05/03/2009  E0.50 INCH       ALLEN              LA   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            POLICE REPORTS DIME SIZE HAIL NEAR KINDER.

&&

MGRIFFIN

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
254 PM CDT SUN MAY 3 2009

LAZ042-043-032100-
ACADIA LA-JEFFERSON DAVIS LA-
254 PM CDT SUN MAY 3 2009

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT FOR ACADIA AND JEFFERSON DAVIS PARISHES
UNTIL 400 PM CDT...

AT 252 PM CDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS INDICATED BY NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR 10 MILES SOUTHWEST OF ELTON...OR ABOUT
6 MILES EAST OF FENTON...MOVING EAST AT 30 MPH.

* THE STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
  HATHAWAY AND ELTON BY 310 PM CDT
  IOTA BY 330 PM CDT

FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING...PEA SIZE HAIL...AND WIND GUSTS
TO 50 MPH ARE LIKELY WITH THIS STORM. HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CAUSE
PONDING OF WATER ON AREA ROADWAYS...ESPECIALLY THOSE IN POOR DRAINAGE
AREAS. RESIDENTS ARE ENCOURAGED TO MONITOR THE SITUATION CLOSELY AND
BE PREPARED TO TAKE THE PROPER ACTIONS SHOULD A WARNING BE ISSUED.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 400 PM CDT SUNDAY
AFTERNOON FOR SOUTHWESTERN LOUISIANA.

24

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
257 PM CDT SUN MAY 3 2009

LAZ030-TXZ180>182-201-032100-
BEAUREGARD LA-NEWTON TX-JASPER TX-TYLER TX-HARDIN TX-
257 PM CDT SUN MAY 3 2009

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT FOR BEAUREGARD PARISH...SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER ALERT FOR NEWTON...JASPER...TYLER AND HARDIN COUNTIES UNTIL
400 PM CDT...

AT 256 PM CDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS INDICATED BY NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR 6 MILES SOUTHWEST OF KIRBYVILLE...
MOVING EAST AT 35 MPH.

* THE STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
  CALL AND KIRBYVILLE BY 305 PM CDT
  BLEAKWOOD BY 310 PM CDT
  FIELDS BY 335 PM CDT

FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING...PEA SIZE HAIL...AND WIND GUSTS
TO 50 MPH ARE LIKELY WITH THIS STORM. HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CAUSE
PONDING OF WATER ON AREA ROADWAYS...ESPECIALLY THOSE IN POOR DRAINAGE
AREAS. RESIDENTS ARE ENCOURAGED TO MONITOR THE SITUATION CLOSELY AND
BE PREPARED TO TAKE THE PROPER ACTIONS SHOULD A WARNING BE ISSUED.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 400 PM CDT SUNDAY
AFTERNOON FOR SOUTHWESTERN LOUISIANA.

24

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
310 PM CDT SUN MAY 03 2009

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0305 PM     HAIL             KIRBYVILLE              30.66N 93.90W
05/03/2009  E0.50 INCH       JASPER             TX   PUBLIC

            PUBLIC REPORTS MARBLE SIZE HAIL FOR A FEW MINUTES.

&&

MGRIFFIN

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
331 PM CDT SUN MAY 3 2009

LAZ031>033-042-043-032130-
EVANGELINE LA-ALLEN LA-ST. LANDRY LA-ACADIA LA-JEFFERSON DAVIS LA-
331 PM CDT SUN MAY 3 2009

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT FOR EVANGELINE...ALLEN...ST. LANDRY...
ACADIA AND JEFFERSON DAVIS PARISHES UNTIL 430 PM CDT...

AT 329 PM CDT...A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WAS INDICATED BY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 6
MILES NORTH OF OBERLIN TO 3 MILES NORTHEAST OF KINDER...MOVING EAST
AT 35 MPH.

* STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE NEAR...
  ELTON BY 340 PM CDT
  HATHAWAY BY 345 PM CDT
  BASILE BY 350 PM CDT
  PINE PRAIRIE BY 355 PM CDT
  REDDELL AND MAMOU BY 400 PM CDT
  EUNICE BY 405 PM CDT

FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING...PEA SIZE HAIL...AND WIND GUSTS
TO 50 MPH ARE LIKELY WITH THIS STORM. HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CAUSE
PONDING OF WATER ON AREA ROADWAYS...ESPECIALLY THOSE IN POOR DRAINAGE
AREAS. RESIDENTS ARE ENCOURAGED TO MONITOR THE SITUATION CLOSELY AND
BE PREPARED TO TAKE THE PROPER ACTIONS SHOULD A WARNING BE ISSUED.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 400 PM CDT SUNDAY
AFTERNOON FOR SOUTHWESTERN LOUISIANA.

24