Severe Thunderstorm Warning 99, NWS North Platte, NE

000 
WWUS53 KLBF 160120
SVSLBF

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
720 PM MDT MON JUN 15 2009

NEC031-161-160130-
/O.CAN.KLBF.SV.W.0099.000000T0000Z-090616T0200Z/
SHERIDAN NE-CHERRY NE-
720 PM MDT MON JUN 15 2009

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR NORTHWESTERN CHERRY AND
NORTHEASTERN SHERIDAN COUNTIES IS CANCELLED...

LAT...LON 4299 10227 4300 10198 4299 10193 4287 10192
      4289 10235 4300 10236 4300 10228
TIME...MOT...LOC 0120Z 269DEG 13KT 4298 10212

$$

SPRINGER

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
240 PM CDT SUN JUN 14 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
    HAND ANALYSIS OF THE 18Z SURFACE DATA SHOWED SEVERAL LOW
PRESSURE CENTERS ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS. THERE WAS A TROUGH ACROSS
WESTERN NEBRASKA AND SOUTHWEST SOUTH DAKOTA. A FRONT WAS STRETCHED
FROM WESTERN MISSOURI ACROSS NORTHERN AND WESTERN KANSAS TO
SOUTHEAST COLORADO. DEWPOINTS OF 60-65 REACHED UP INTO SOUTH CENTRAL
AND EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA. THE 18Z NORTH PLATTE SOUNDING SHOWED AN
ELEVATED MIXED LAYER FROM ABOUT 800MB TO ABOUT 550MB...THOUGH THERE
WAS AN INVERSION FROM 850MB TO 800MB. RAISING THE SURFACE
TEMPERATURE TO 77F...THE CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL ENERGY INCREASES TO
3300J/KG. THE SATELLITE DERIVED PRECIPITABLE WATER SHOWED A PLUME OF
30MM OR MORE INTO CENTRAL AND EASTERN NEBRASKA. IN THE 6.7 MICRON
IMAGERY...THERE WAS A WAVE LOCATED IN EAST CENTRAL COLORADO AND A
MATURING VORTEX JUST OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST NEAR THE BAY AREA.
&&

.SHORT RANGE...TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.
    ONCE AGAIN...THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED ALONG ONE OR
BOTH OF THE BOUNDARIES IN WESTERN NEBRASKA AND NORTHERN KANSAS. ON
THE NORTH PLATTE SOUNDING TOTAL SHEAR IN THE 0-6KM AGL LAYER IS
ABOUT 30KT...AND THE LOW LEVEL WIND FIELD DOES NOT SHOW THE NICE
VEERING THAT WOULD FAVOR SUPER CELL DEVELOPMENT. HOWEVER...IN THE
VICINITY OF THE SURFACE BOUNDARIES...THE WIND IS PROBABLY MORE
FAVORABLE. THE RUC SHOWS SURFACE BASED CAPE EXCEEDING 4000J/KG
REACHING ABOUT THE I-80 CORRIDOR AND 2500-3500J/KG TO THE SOUTH
DAKOTA BORDER AND NORTHWEST TO ABOUT MERRIMAN. AFTER MIDNIGHT...
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CLEAR THE WEST. THEN...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ARE EXPECTED TO END BY TUESDAY EVENING OVER CENTRAL AND NORTH
CENTRAL NEBRASKA.

.MEDIUM TO LONG RANGE...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.
    AS THE BOUNDARY LIFTS NORTHWARD AGAIN WEDNESDAY...THE THETA-E
RIDGE MAKES ITS WAY INTO SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA. MOIST
VERY UNSTABLE AIR LIFTS UP OVER THE BOUNDARY TO GENERATE
THUNDERSTORMS. THERE IS A SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCE AMONG THE GFS...NAM
AND EURO IN THEIR PRECIPITATION FORECAST...BUT THE EURO...NAM AND
SREF SEEM TO FAVOR A MORE NORTHERLY DISPLACEMENT OF THE
PRECIPITATION FIELDS. IT IS PROBABLY SAFE TO SAY THAT CENTRAL
THROUGH WEST CENTRAL NEBRASKA WILL HAVE SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH THE STORMS DECREASING THURSDAY MORNING. WE HAVE
A LITTLE LESS CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST FOR NORTH CENTRAL THROUGH
NORTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL THROUGH SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA.
    WITH THE BOUNDARY CONTINUING OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS...THERE IS
A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT.
    ANOTHER WAVE IS EXPECTED SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...BUT
CONFIDENCE IS NOT REAL HIGH AT THAT RANGE.
    VERY WARM TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED AGAIN WEDNESDAY...THEN
SLIGHTLY LOWER TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY.
&&

.AVIATION...
    ACTIVE EVENING EXPECT OVER THE REGION. THUNDERSTORMS ALREADY
FIRING TO THE WEST OF THE TAF SITES...AND ARE EXPECTED TO EVENTUALLY
PUSH INTO BOTH KLBF AND KVTN. NOT IN THE TAF YET...BUT GUSTY WINDS
AND HAIL MAY ACCOMPANY THE THUNDERSTORMS...AND WILL MONITOR TO ADD
ONCE HIGHER CONFIDENCE OF AIRPORT IMPACT. THUNDERSTORMS MAY ALSO
NEED TO BE EXTENDED INTO THE EVENING...AS SPEED OF STORMS MOVING TO
THE EAST OF THE TAF SITES STILL UNSURE. OVERNIGHT THE LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE IS HIGH AND EXPECT A RETURN OF STRATUS AND POSSIBLY
FOG...SIMILAR TO THIS MORNING...MAY DROP AS LOW AS VLIFR FOR BOTH
CIGS AND VSBY. ANY RESTRICTIONS SHOULD LIFT TO VFR SHORTLY AFTER
SUNRISE.
&&

.HYDROLOGY...
    THE ONE HOUR EXCESSIVE RUNOFF GUIDANCE IS LESS THAN AN INCH IN
NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA ALONG THE ELKHORN RIVER BASIN AND 1.0-1.25
INCH IN SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA ALONG THE FRENCHMAN BASIN. AT THIS
TIME...IT APPEARS THAT THE MOST FAVORABLE MOISTURE FOR EXCESSIVE
RAINFALL IS SOUTH AND EAST OF THE NORTH PLATTE-CURTIS-IMPERIAL
AREA...AND WE ARE NOT PLANNING ON ISSUING A FLOOD WATCH FOR
SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA. ALTHOUGH NOT IN THE EXPECTED HEAVY RAIN
AREA...THE ELKHORN BASIN WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED THIS EVENING AND
TONIGHT.
&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

SHORT AND MEDIUM TO LONG RANGE...SPRINGER
AVIATION...MASEK
HYDROLOGY...SPRINGER

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
343 PM CDT MON JUN 15 2009

NEZ004>010-022>029-035>038-056>059-069>071-094-162045-
SHERIDAN-EASTERN CHERRY-KEYA PAHA-BOYD-BROWN-ROCK-HOLT-GARDEN-
GRANT-HOOKER-THOMAS-BLAINE-LOUP-GARFIELD-WHEELER-ARTHUR-MCPHERSON-
LOGAN-CUSTER-DEUEL-KEITH-PERKINS-LINCOLN-CHASE-HAYES-FRONTIER-
WESTERN CHERRY-
343 PM CDT MON JUN 15 2009 /243 PM MDT MON JUN 15 2009/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF WESTERN AND
NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL
NEBRASKA THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT. THOUGH SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE ENTIRE OUTLOOK AREA...THE GREATEST THREAT
FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IS SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 2 FROM ANTIOCH TO
DUNNING AND SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 91 FROM DUNNING TO BURWELL. LARGE
HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS ARE THE MAIN THREATS...HOWEVER ISOLATED
TORNADOES WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

A SURFACE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK ACROSS THE OUTLOOK
AREA ON TUESDAY. AS THIS TROUGH PUSHES INTO CENTRAL AND EASTERN
NEBRASKA TUESDAY AFTERNOON...THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP. SOME
STORMS MAY BE SEVERE EAST OF HIGHWAY 83.

THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ON WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. AT
THIS TIME NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED.

ON THURSDAY A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL CROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. AS
THIS BOUNDARY CRASHES INTO DECENT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE OVER EASTERN
NEBRASKA...THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP. THUNDERSTORMS
ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE ENTIRE OUTLOOK AREA WITH THE GREATEST
THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER EAST OF A LINE FROM NAPER...TO
BRADY...TO MAYWOOD.

AFTER THURSDAY...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL BUILD ACROSS
THE CENTRAL PLAINS. TRANQUIL WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR
FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAYBE BE NEEDED ALONG AND SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 92
THIS EVENING.

&&

THIS PRODUCT IS NOW AVAILABLE...ALONG WITH OTHER WEATHER...
HYDROLOGICAL AND CLIMATOLOGICAL INFORMATION...AT
HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/NORTHPLATTE

MASEK

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
737 PM CDT MON JUN 15 2009

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0736 PM     HAIL             4 W IMPERIAL            40.52N 101.71W
06/15/2009  E1.00 INCH       CHASE              NE   PUBLIC

            QUARTER SIZE HAIL.

&&

CJS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
742 PM CDT MON JUN 15 2009

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0741 PM     HAIL             14 E VALENTINE          42.87N 100.27W
06/15/2009  E1.75 INCH       CHERRY             NE   PUBLIC

            MOSTLY NICKEL SIZE HAIL BUT A FEW STONES WERE AS LARGE AS
            GOLFBALLS.

&&

SJACOBS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
743 PM CDT MON JUN 15 2009

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0742 PM     HAIL             2 W IMPERIAL            40.52N 101.68W
06/15/2009  E1.75 INCH       CHASE              NE   TRAINED SPOTTER

            GOLF BALL SIZE HAIL REPORTED TWO MILES WEST OF IMPERIAL.

&&

CJS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
749 PM CDT MON JUN 15 2009

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0728 PM     HAIL             4 W IMPERIAL            40.52N 101.71W
06/15/2009  M1.00 INCH       CHASE              NE   PUBLIC

            HEAVY RAIN WITH QUARTER SIZE HAIL.

&&

SJACOBS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
750 PM CDT MON JUN 15 2009

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0740 PM     HAIL             3 S NORTH PLATTE        41.09N 100.77W
06/15/2009  E1.00 INCH       LINCOLN            NE   NWS EMPLOYEE

            QUARTER SIZE HAIL.

0745 PM     HAIL             IMPERIAL                40.52N 101.64W
06/15/2009  E2.75 INCH       CHASE              NE   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            BASEBALL SIZE HAIL REPORTED IN IMPERIAL.

&&

CJS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
758 PM CDT MON JUN 15 2009

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0752 PM     HAIL             1 E IMPERIAL            40.52N 101.62W
06/15/2009  E1.00 INCH       CHASE              NE   PUBLIC

            QUARTER SIZE HAIL.

&&

CJS