Severe Thunderstorm Warning 37, NWS North Platte, NE

000 
WWUS53 KLBF 312047
SVSLBF

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
247 PM MDT SUN MAY 31 2009

NEC161-312100-
/O.CON.KLBF.SV.W.0037.000000T0000Z-090531T2100Z/
SHERIDAN NE-
247 PM MDT SUN MAY 31 2009

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 300 PM MDT
FOR NORTHWESTERN SHERIDAN COUNTY...

AT 246 PM MDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO
INDICATE A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE
HAIL.  THIS STORM WAS LOCATED 8 MILES WEST OF INTERSECTION OF HIGHWAY
87 AND CRAVEN CREEK ROAD...OR 8 MILES WEST OF PINE RIDGE...MOVING
SOUTHEAST AT 15 MPH.

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
  6 MILES WEST OF INTERSECTION OF HIGHWAY 87 AND CRAVEN CREEK ROAD...
  6 MILES WEST OF INTERSECTION OF HIGHWAY 87 AND LARABEE ROAD...7
  MILES NORTHWEST OF HIGHWAY 87 MILE MARKER 70 AND 8 MILES NORTH OF
  METCALF STATE WILDLIFE MANAGEMENT AREA BY 300 PM MDT...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

DOPPLER RADAR HAS INDICATED SOME WEAK ROTATION WITHIN THIS STORM.
WHILE NOT IMMEDIATELY LIKELY...A TORNADO MAY STILL DEVELOP. IF A
TORNADO IS SPOTTED...ACT QUICKLY AND MOVE TO A PLACE OF SAFETY IN A
STURDY STRUCTURE...SUCH AS A BASEMENT OR SMALL INTERIOR ROOM.

&&

LAT...LON 4300 10231 4268 10276 4274 10279 4277 10278
      4278 10280 4298 10280 4300 10278
TIME...MOT...LOC 2047Z 312DEG 12KT 4299 10271

$$

SPRINGER

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
320 PM CDT SUN MAY 31 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
AT THE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE OVER EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA WITH
TRAILING COLD FRONT INTO NORTHWEST SOUTH DAKOTA TROUGH AXIS INTO
THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE. STATIONARY BOUNDARY OVER CENTRAL NEBRASKA.

H5 LOW SPINNING OVER FOUR CORNERS AS SEEN IN WATER VAPOR UNDER H5
RIDGE OVER WESTERN CONUS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
MODELS IN FAIR AGREEMENT IN NEAR TERM NAM WRF HAD BEST HANDLE ON
PRECIPITATION ALONG THE SOUTH DAKOTA NEBRASKA BORDER THIS MORNING
AND WILL TREND PRECIPITATION FORECAST TOWARDS THAT MODEL. OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY FROM CELL IN SOUTH DAKOTA HAS CELLS GOING UP OVER CHERRY
COUNTY. MAIN FOCUS WILL BE NORTHERN NEBRASKA AND THEN THE NEBRASKA
PANHANDLE EARLY ON. FOCUS WILL SHIFT ALONG THE TROUGH AXIS THROUGH
THE LATE EVENING. SB CAPES AROUND 800-1000 J/KG CELL IN SOUTH
DAKOTA HAS A HISTORY OF LARGE HAIL. BULK SHEAR A LITTLE LACKING
FOR SUSTAINED SUPER CELLS. FRONT TO DROP SOUTH AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH
NORTH CENTRAL BECOMING FOCUS. UPPER LOW WILL BRING MOISTURE
STREAMING INTO THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT WITH POOLING ALONG THE
FRONT. PWS APPROACHING 120 PERCENT OF NORMAL. SLOW STORM MOTION
ALONG THE FRONT WILL MAKE MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN FALL AMOUNTS
POSSIBLE. WITH ENERGY MOVING OUT OF FOUR CORNERS FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WILL BECOME FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN ON MONDAY WITH FOCUS
SHIFTING TOWARDS SOUTHERN NEBRASKA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. NAM AND
GFS DIFFER SOMEWHAT WITH ORIENTATION OF FRONT AND HAVE USED A
BLEND. TEMPERATURES TO THE NORTH OF THE FRONT EXPECTED IN THE LOW
70S WITH MID AND UPPER 70S SOUTH. FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL ENHANCE
CHANCES FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES. LARGE HAIL SHOULD REMAIN MAIN
THREAT. UPPER LOW WILL KEEP RAINSHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
IN THE FORECAST THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. HAVE LOWERED TEMPERATURES
TUESDAY WITH CONTINUING RAINSHOWERS. SLIGHT REBOUND WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY UNDER SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WITH SLIGHT CHANCES RETAINED
THURSDAY NIGHT WITH FROPA. BOUNDARY PLACEMENT DIFFERS AMONGST
EXTENDED MODELS FOR THE WEEKEND AND HAVE LEFT THE FORECAST DRY FOR
NOW.

&&

.AVIATION...
SURFACE TROUGH IS MOVING SE ACROSS THE WESTERN PLAINS THIS AFTN. AS
IT PUSHES ACROSS THE TAF SITES...THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT...ISOLD TO
SCT THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE. CONFIDENCE HIGH ENOUGH TO TEMPO
TSRA FOR KVTN. FURTHER S FOR KLBF...MOISTURE IS LIMITED AND LOWER
CONFIDENCE...ESPECIALLY IN TIMING. HAVE MENTIONED CB WITH NO TEMPO
OF TSRA YET FOR KLBF...AND WILL MONITOR DEVELOPMENT OF TSRA TO THE
NORTH AND WEST. ATTM THINK ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN VFR WITH ONLY A
BRIEF/IN ANY/MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH THE ISOLD ACTIVITY. ALSO
WILL WATCH WINDS SHIFT TO THE NW ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE TROUGH.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM/EXTENDED...POWER
AVIATION...MASEK

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
309 PM CDT SUN MAY 31 2009

NEZ004>010-022>029-035>038-056>059-069>071-094-012015-
SHERIDAN-EASTERN CHERRY-KEYA PAHA-BOYD-BROWN-ROCK-HOLT-GARDEN-
GRANT-HOOKER-THOMAS-BLAINE-LOUP-GARFIELD-WHEELER-ARTHUR-MCPHERSON-
LOGAN-CUSTER-DEUEL-KEITH-PERKINS-LINCOLN-CHASE-HAYES-FRONTIER-
WESTERN CHERRY-
309 PM CDT SUN MAY 31 2009 /209 PM MDT SUN MAY 31 2009/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF WESTERN AND
NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

A SURFACE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL ACT AS A FOCUS FOR
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THIS EVENING...AND WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
OUTLOOK AREA FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST.

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK FOR ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS...GENERALLY
NORTH OF A LINE FROM OGALLALA IN KEITH COUNTY THROUGH MASON CITY
IN CUSTER COUNTY. A FEW STORMS MAY BECOME SEVERE AND CONTAIN HAIL
ONE INCH OR GREATER IN DIAMETER WITH DAMAGING WINDS AS WELL. THE
SEVERE THREAT SHOULD DIMINISH SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

ON MONDAY...A SURFACE FRONT WILL BECOME POSITIONED NEAR THE
NEBRASKA AND KANSAS BORDER. MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL
INCREASE NORTH OF THE FRONT ACROSS SOUTHERN NEBRASKA. A FEW
STORMS MAY BECOME SEVERE...MAINLY SOUTH OF HIGHWAYS 2 AND 91. THE
THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO BE SLOW MOVING WITH HEAVY RAINFALL AN
ADDITIONAL THREAT.

THE FRONT WILL PUSH WELL SOUTH OF THE AREA TUESDAY...WITH THE
NEXT CHANCE FOR ORGANIZED STORMS THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
NORTH OF A LINE OGALLALA IN KEITH COUNTY THROUGH MASON CITY IN
CUSTER COUNTY.

&&

THIS PRODUCT IS NOW AVAILABLE...ALONG WITH OTHER WEATHER...
HYDROLOGICAL AND CLIMATOLOGICAL INFORMATION...AT
HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/NORTHPLATTE

MASEK