Severe Thunderstorm Warning 349, NWS North Platte, NE

000 
WWUS53 KLBF 040248
SVSLBF

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
848 PM MDT MON AUG 3 2009

NEC161-040315-
/O.CON.KLBF.SV.W.0349.000000T0000Z-090804T0315Z/
SHERIDAN NE-
848 PM MDT MON AUG 3 2009

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 915 PM MDT
FOR NORTHERN SHERIDAN COUNTY...

AT 848 PM MDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO
INDICATE A LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING
WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH.  THESE STORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE
EXTENDING FROM INTERSECTION OF HIGHWAY 87 AND LARABEE ROAD TO
RUSHVILLE TO HIGHWAY 87 MILE MARKER 30...OR ALONG A LINE EXTENDING
FROM 6 MILES SOUTH OF PINE RIDGE TO RUSHVILLE TO 20 MILES SOUTH OF
HAY SPRINGS...MOVING EAST AT 30 MPH.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE NEAR...
  HIGHWAY 87 MILE MARKER 60 AND RUSHVILLE BY 855 PM MDT...
  HIGHWAY 250 CROSSING THE NIOBRARA RIVER BY 900 PM MDT...
  CLINTON BY 905 PM MDT...
  SMITH LAKE STATE WILDLIFE MANAGEMENT AREA AND HIGHWAY 250 MILE
  MARKER 30 BY 910 PM MDT...
  HIGHWAY 27 CROSSING THE NIOBRARA RIVER...HIGHWAY 250 MILE MARKER
  20...INTERSECTION OF HIGHWAY 27 AND MILLS ROAD AND HIGHWAY 27 MILE
  MARKER 230 BY 915 PM MDT...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 200 AM MDT
TUESDAY MORNING FOR NORTHWESTERN NEBRASKA.

&&

LAT...LON 4296 10277 4296 10211 4269 10208 4227 10215
      4230 10275
TIME...MOT...LOC 0248Z 282DEG 26KT 4294 10256 4269 10252
          4240 10270

$$

13

000 
WWUS53 KLBF 040311
SVSLBF

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
911 PM MDT MON AUG 3 2009

NEC161-040320-
/O.EXP.KLBF.SV.W.0349.000000T0000Z-090804T0315Z/
SHERIDAN NE-
911 PM MDT MON AUG 3 2009

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR NORTHERN SHERIDAN COUNTY WILL
EXPIRE AT 915 PM MDT...

THE LINE OF STORMS WHICH HAD PROMPTED THE WARNING HAVE WEAKENED 
BELOW SEVERE LIMITS. HOWEVER WIND GUSTS NEAR 40 MPH...BRIEF HEAVY 
RAINFALL AND POSSIBLY SMALL HAIL WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE 
NEXT HOUR OR SO ACROSS NORTHERN SHERIDAN COUNTY. 

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 200 AM MDT
TUESDAY MORNING FOR WESTERN NEBRASKA.

LAT...LON 4296 10277 4296 10211 4269 10208 4227 10215
      4230 10275
TIME...MOT...LOC 0310Z 282DEG 26KT 4291 10234 4266 10231
          4237 10249

$$

13

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
303 PM CDT MON AUG 03 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
H5 ANALYSIS FROM THIS MORNING INDICATING A TROUGH ANCHORED OVER THE
EASTERN CONUS...RIDGING AND AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH ALONG THE AZ/NM
BORDER...STRONG BERMUDA HIGH AND A TROUGH ALONG THE PACIFIC COAST.
AT THE SURFACE...A COLD FRONT EXTENDED SWD FROM SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
OVER SWRN ONTARIO...INTO NRN SD. TEMPERATURES AT 2 PM CDT WERE IN
THE MID TO UPPER 80S OVER WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

NEAR TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...MAIN FORECASTING CHALLENGE
OVER THE NEXT THREE DAYS DEALS WITH PRECIPITATION CHANCES AND
CONVECTION RESULTING FROM DISTURBANCES OVER TOPING THE RIDGE OFF TO
THE WEST.

FOR TONIGHT...UPSTREAM DISTURBANCE PER WV IMAGERY...WILL CROSS
WYOMING AND COLORADO...EMERGING OVER WRN NEBRASKA BY 00Z TONIGHT.
THOUGH PRECIPITATION CHANCES LOOK FAVORABLE OVER THE ENTIRE FORECAST
AREA...AM FAVORING THE NRN ZONES AS A COLD FRONT (CURRENTLY OVR THE
SD/ND BORDER)...WILL APPROACH NRN NEBRASKA BY MIDNIGHT. THIS FRONT
WILL SERVE AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER FOCAL POINT WHICH SEEMS TO BE
LACKING ATTM...PER ISOLATED POPCORN LIKE CONVECTION OFF TO THE WEST.
DEEP SHEAR BETTER THAN 40 KTS RESIDES NORTH OF THE INTERSTATE FOR
TONIGHT...SO SEVERE THREAT SHOULD BE CONFINED TO LOCATIONS NORTH OF
THE INTERSTATE. FCST SOUNDINGS FROM NRN NEBRASKA ARE INDICATIVE OF
LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS...AS THE BOUNDARY FOCUS SHOULDNT BE A
PLAYER TILL OVERNIGHT TONIGHT.

THE COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH NORTHERN AND EASTERN SECTIONS OF
THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT TONIGHT...BEFORE STALLING ACROSS THE
CENTRAL CWA TOMORROW. SERLY WINDS WILL PUSH MOISTURE INTO THE
CENTRAL AND WESTERN PANHANDLE TOMORROW. THETA E RIDGING..ABUNDANT
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...AND A WEAK AFTERNOON CAP...WILL LEAD TO
THUNDERSTORM INITIATION OFF TO THE WEST LATE TOMORROW AFTERNOON.
THIS ACTIVITY WILL LIFT TO THE ESE TUESDAY EVENING...IMPACTING THE
FORECAST AREA. BULK OF THE SEVERE WEATHER TOMORROW AND TOMORROW
NIGHT...SHOULD STAY WEST OF HIGHWAY 83...HOWEVER IF THE FRONT
DECIDES TO STALL FURTHER EAST...LOCATIONS EAST OF THIS ROUTE WILL
SEE THEIR CHANCES FOR SEVERE WEATHER INCREASE.

ROUNDS OF THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE LATE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA AS THE PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL
HIGH SLOWLY TRANSITIONS EAST ACROSS THE SRN ROCKIES. TIMING OF
PRECIPITATION WILL BE PROBLEMATIC AS IT WILL BE DEPENDENT ON WAVE
TIMING. HOWEVER...FEEL BETTER CHANCES WILL BE ACROSS THE NORTH AS A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL STALL ACROSS THE DAKOTAS.

LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...RIDGING ALOFT WHICH IS
LOCKED IN OVER THE FOUR CORNERS AND INTERMOUNTAIN WEST...WILL
TRANSITION EWD LATE IN THE WEEK AS A DEEP TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE
LIFTS INTO NRN CA AND NEVADA. BASED ON THE LATEST 12Z GFS FROM THIS
MORNING...A DECENT POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR A TORCH OUT ON FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY...WITH H85 TEMPS ECLIPSING 35C IN THE SOUTHWEST. UTILIZED
HPC TEMPS AS A STARTING POINT...BOOSTING THEM 2 TO 4 DEGREES BASED
ON THE H85 TEMP REGIME BOTH DAYS. FOR THE SUNDAY AND MONDAY TIME
PERIODS...ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS WILL CONTINUE...EVEN WITH EVIDENCE OF A
WEAK FROPA EARLY SUNDAY. ENSEMBLE FCSTS CONTINUE TO INDICATE A
PERSISTENT TROUGH OVER THE PACIFIC COAST WHICH WOULD FAVOR
DOWNSTREAM RIDGING ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CONUS. OTHER
EVIDENCE FOR ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS EARLY NEXT WEEK IS THE TRANSITION TO
A POSITIVE PHASE OF THE NORTH ATLANTIC OSCILLATION...WHICH FAVORS
INCREASED RIDGING ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS AND RESULTANT WARM
TEMPS.

&&

.AVIATION...
PROGRESSIVE NORTHWEST FLOW WILL CAUSE THE NEXT IN A SERIES OF SHORT
WAVES TO MOVE OVER THE REGION THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT. MAIN AREA OF
CONCERN WILL BE NORTHERN NEBRASKA....INCLUDING THE KVTN
AREA...ALTHOUGH SW NEBRASKA AND KLBF DOES HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO SEE
SOME STORMS. IN GENERAL VFR CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED...AS IS THE
GOING FORECAST THROUGH THE PERIOD...HOWEVER ANY THUNDERSTORM THAT
DEVELOPS WILL BE CAPABLE OF BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS...FROM VSBY IN
HEAVY RAIN. THE TAF WILL BE AMENDED TO ACCOUNT FOR THESE CONDITIONS
AS TIMING THESE SHORT PERIODS ARE DIFFICULT BEYOND A COUPLE OF HOURS.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE

.AVIATION...MASEK
.SHORT AND LONG TERM...BUTTLER

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
824 PM CDT MON AUG 3 2009

NEZ004>010-022>029-035>038-056>059-069>071-094-050130-
SHERIDAN-EASTERN CHERRY-KEYA PAHA-BOYD-BROWN-ROCK-HOLT-GARDEN-
GRANT-HOOKER-THOMAS-BLAINE-LOUP-GARFIELD-WHEELER-ARTHUR-MCPHERSON-
LOGAN-CUSTER-DEUEL-KEITH-PERKINS-LINCOLN-CHASE-HAYES-FRONTIER-
WESTERN CHERRY-
824 PM CDT MON AUG 3 2009 /724 PM MDT MON AUG 3 2009/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF WESTERN AND
NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

WITH MODERATE INSTABILITY AND FAVORABLE WIND PROFILES IN PLACE
ACROSS THE SANDHILLS AND NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA...SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE EVENING
HOURS WEST OF HIGHWAY 183...NORTH OF INTERSTATE 80. THIS THREAT
WILL SHIFT TO AREAS MAINLY EAST OF HIGHWAY 183 AFTER MIDNIGHT.
LARGE HAIL...POSSIBLY AROUND GOLF BALL SIZE IN THE STRONGEST
STORMS...AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS OVER 60 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THESE STORMS.

AREAS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE INTO SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA SOUTH
OF INTERSTATE 80 SHOULD MAINLY SEE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT...WITH A LIMITED THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT AGAIN
OVER WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING ALONG A STATIONARY BOUNDARY AS WEAK WAVES
MOVE THROUGH NORTHWEST FLOW. THE MAIN THREAT AREA IS ALONG AND
NORTH OF INTERSTATE 80 NORTH TO THE SOUTH DAKOTA BORDER. THE MAIN
THREAT WITH THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP WILL BE LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS.

NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL KEEP WEAK WAVES MOVING ACROSS WESTERN
AND NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA THROUGH THE WEEK. ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT MAINLY NORTHERN NEBRASKA. NO
WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED THROUGH TONIGHT.

&&

THIS PRODUCT IS NOW AVAILABLE...ALONG WITH OTHER WEATHER...
HYDROLOGICAL AND CLIMATOLOGICAL INFORMATION...AT
HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/NORTHPLATTE

13

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
842 PM CDT MON AUG 03 2009

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0830 PM     TSTM WND GST     40 SSE MERRIMAN         42.39N 101.40W
08/03/2009  E70 MPH          CHERRY             NE   PUBLIC

            THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS WERE BRIEFLY ESTIMATED TO BE
            BETWEEN 60 AND 70 MPH. ACCOMPANIED BY NICKEL SIZE
            HAIL...AS WELL AS HEAVY RAINFALL OF 1.10 INCHES.

&&

CJS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
901 PM CDT MON AUG 03 2009

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0850 PM     HAIL             12 N GORDON             42.98N 102.20W
08/03/2009  E1.00 INCH       SHERIDAN           NE   PUBLIC

&&

13

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
904 PM CDT MON AUG 03 2009

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0850 PM     HAIL             40 SW MERRITT RESERVOIR 42.24N 101.42W
08/03/2009  E0.75 INCH       CHERRY             NE   PUBLIC

            THE LARGEST HAIL WAS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR PENNY SIZE.

&&

CJS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
909 PM CDT MON AUG 03 2009

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0907 PM     HAIL             NE GORDON               42.81N 102.20W
08/03/2009  E2.50 INCH       SHERIDAN           NE   PUBLIC

&&

13

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
924 PM CDT MON AUG 03 2009

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0924 PM     HAIL             17 SW MERRIMAN          42.75N 101.94W
08/03/2009  E1.00 INCH       CHERRY             NE   PUBLIC

&&

13

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
929 PM CDT MON AUG 03 2009

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0915 PM     HAIL             5 ENE WHITMAN           42.07N 101.45W
08/03/2009  E1.00 INCH       GRANT              NE   PUBLIC

            HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF QUARTERS LASTED BETWEEEN 5 AND 10
            MINUTES.

&&

CJS