Severe Thunderstorm Warning 329, NWS North Platte, NE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
307 PM CDT FRI JUL 24 2009

.DISCUSSION...

FRONT MAKING ITS WAY THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON.
DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S POOLING ALONG THE FRONT. BEHIND THE
DRYLING IN THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE...TEMPS ARE IN THE MID 90S WITH
DEWPOINTS IN THE 30S AND 40S...ESPECIALLY THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE.
SFC VORTICITY ALONG THE FRONT AND CU STARTING TO DEVELOP IN THE
SOUTHERN PANHANDLE IS AN INDICATOR OF POSSIBLE LANDSPOUT TORNADO
DEVELOPMENT. IF 0-3KM CAPE INCREASES...MAY NEED TO ISSUE AN PNS
FOR SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA AND WATCH IT CLOSELY.

TONIGHT AND SATURDAY...EXPECT STORMS TO DEVELOP AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING AS MUCAPE VALUES FROM 2-4K COMBINE WITH 25-35KT EFFECTIVE
SHEAR TO PROVIDE SUPPORT FOR ISOLATED STORMS. ENOUGH WIND SHEAR
ALONG THE FRONT TO HAVE AN ISOLATED TORNADO THREAT. ONCE THE
STORMS DEVELOP...STORM MOTION WILL BE TO THE SOUTH. AFTER
06Z...700MB FRONTOGENESIS AND WEAK CAPE SETS UP FROM NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE FA BRINGING ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE
LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING HOURS. CAPE DIMINISHES BY 12Z AS THE
SURFACE HIGH PUSHES IN SO DO NOT CONTINUE THE STORMS INTO SATURDAY
MORNING.

SUNDAY...SFC LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS SUN PM
WITH SOUTHEAST WINDS TRANSPORTING MOISTURE BACK INTO THE AREA.
NORTHWEST FLOW IN THE UPPER LEVELS BRINGNING PLENTY OF
DISTURBANCES TO PROVIDE LIFT FOR SCATTERES THUNDERSTORMS ONCE
AGAIN.

MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...TEMPERATURES START TO COOL AT THE INTENSE
UPPER LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES PIVOTS AROUND AND PULLS THE UPPER
LOW THAT HAS BEEN SITUATED OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST INTO THE
NORTHWEST FLOW...BREAKING DOWN THE WESTERN CONUS RIDGE. THIS SETS
THE STAGE FOR COOLER TEMPS...UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S...AND
INCREASED PCPN CHANCES AS A NUMBER OF COLD FRONTS MOVE THROUGH THE
FA.

.AVIATION...

FRONT ALREADY THROUGH KVTN...AS WINDS HAVE SHIFTED TO THE NORTH.
THIS IS EXPECTED TO KEEP KVTN VFR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. WILL SEE SOME
MID/HIGH CLOUDS...HOWEVER RAIN IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN SOUTH OF THE
TERMINAL.

GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR KLBF...EXCEPT WITHIN
ANY THUNDERSTORM...WHICH MAY DROP VSBY/CIGS TO MVFR OR IFR. KLBF IS
STILL SOUTH OF THE FRONT...AND HAS A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO
IMPACT THE TERMINAL SITE. WHILE THERE IS A HIGH CHANCE OF STORMS
DEVELOPING OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL NEBRASKA THIS AFTERNOON...DUE TO
SCT COVERAGE...HAVE DETERMINED TO KEEP OUT OF TAF AT THIS TIME. WILL
MONITOR CLOSELY AND UPDATE WHEN/IF THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
IMPACT THE TERMINAL SITE. OVERNIGHT A SECOND ROUND WILL BE POSSIBLE
AT KLBF DUE TO THE LOW LEVEL JET...HOWEVER COVERAGE TO BE LESS THAN
DURING THE EVENING EVENT. AGAIN HAVE CB CIGS DURING BEST CHANCE OF
OCCURRENCE.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM/EXTENDED...DDB
AVIATION...MASEK

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
847 PM CDT FRI JUL 24 2009

NEZ004>010-022>029-035>038-056>059-069>071-094-260200-
SHERIDAN-EASTERN CHERRY-KEYA PAHA-BOYD-BROWN-ROCK-HOLT-GARDEN-
GRANT-HOOKER-THOMAS-BLAINE-LOUP-GARFIELD-WHEELER-ARTHUR-MCPHERSON-
LOGAN-CUSTER-DEUEL-KEITH-PERKINS-LINCOLN-CHASE-HAYES-FRONTIER-
WESTERN CHERRY-
847 PM CDT FRI JUL 24 2009 /747 PM MDT FRI JUL 24 2009/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF WESTERN AND
NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS EVENING SOUTH OF A LINE
FROM LISCO TO SARGENT...SOME STORMS MAY BE SEVERE SOUTH OF A LINE
FROM LISCO...TO ANSLEY. IN THESE AREAS STRONG DAMAGING WINDS AND
HAIL UP TO AN INCH IN DIAMETER ARE THE MAIN THREATS. IN ADDITION
TO HAIL AND STRONG WINDS...THE THREAT FOR HEAVY RAIN EXISTS ACROSS
THE SOUTHEASTERN NEBRASKA PANHANDLE AND FAR SOUTHWESTERN NEBRASKA.

ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT ALONG AND SOUTH OF
HIGHWAY 26 FROM LISCO TO OGALLALA AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 80 FROM
OGALLALA TO BRADY. THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SEVERE LIMITS
OVERNIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

THE NEXT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT LOOKS TO ARRIVE
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AS ANOTHER BOUNDARY WILL DROP INTO
NEBRASKA ALONG WITH FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT. THIS FRONT
WILL USHER IN COOLER AIR FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...HOWEVER
SEVERAL UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES MOVING ACROSS THE PLAINS WILL
CONTINUE TO BRING THE CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS NEARLY EVERY DAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

&&

THIS PRODUCT IS NOW AVAILABLE...ALONG WITH OTHER WEATHER...
HYDROLOGICAL AND CLIMATOLOGICAL INFORMATION...AT
HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/NORTHPLATTE

CLB

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
846 PM CDT FRI JUL 24 2009

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0840 PM     TSTM WND GST     4 SW CHAPPELL           41.05N 102.52W
07/24/2009  E50 MPH          DEUEL              NE   PUBLIC

            THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS ESTIMATED TO BE AT LEAST 50 MPH.
            THE WINDS WERE ACCOMPANIED BY HEAVY RAIN AND A BIT OF PEA
            SIZE HAIL.

&&

CJS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
852 PM CDT FRI JUL 24 2009

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0845 PM     TSTM WND GST     6 SE CHAPPELL           41.03N 102.39W
07/24/2009  E50 MPH          DEUEL              NE   PUBLIC

            THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH ACCOMPANIED BY VERY
            HEAVY RAIN.

&&

CJS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
912 PM CDT FRI JUL 24 2009

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0905 PM     TSTM WND GST     BIG SPRINGS             41.06N 102.07W
07/24/2009  M69.00 MPH       DEUEL              NE   CO-OP OBSERVER

            NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COOPERATIVE WEATHER OBSERVER
            MEASURED A 69 MPH THUNDERSTORM WIND GUST.

&&

CJS