Severe Thunderstorm Warning 312, NWS North Platte, NE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
300 PM CDT WED JUL 22 2009

.DISCUSSION...

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM THREAT MAIN CONCERN THROUGH EARLY THIS
EVENING...

.SHORT TERM DISCUSSION...

TONIGHT...MUCH OF ONGOING THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD PUSH SOUTHEAST OUT OF
SWRN NEBR BY 8 PM. UNTIL THEN...ISOLATED SEVERE STORM
POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY SWRN NEBR WITH LARGE HAIL UP TO GOLF BALL
IN DIAMETER. SB CAPES AT 19Z RANGED UP TO 2400 J/KG. STILL ENOUGH
INSTABILITY OVERNIGHT TO WARRANT SLIGHT CHC AFTER MAIN CONVECTION
EXITS.

THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT...A SECOND ROUND OF STORMS MAY OCCUR
THURSDAY AFTN/EVENING. UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE IN NWRLY FLOW ALOFT
WILL INTERACT WITH INSTABILITY IN WRN NEBR AHEAD OF SFC TROUGH.
THERE WILL BE STRONG HEATING WITH HIGHS REACHING THE LOWER TO MID
90S. SB CAPES THOUGH WILL BE RATHER MODEST FROM 1000-1500 J/KG AND
0-6KM SHEAR MARGINAL AT 25-30 KTS. THUS ANY SEVERE STORMS WOULD TEND
TO BE MARGINAL AND SHORT LIVED WITH STORMS TENDING TO BE PULSE IN
NATURE. ALSO...STORM INITIATION WILL TEND TO FORM ALONG EXISTING
BOUNDARIES MOST LIKELY EXTENDING NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
CENTRAL SANDHILLS.

FRIDAY...NAM CONTINUES TO BE ABOUT 6 HOURS FASTER WITH FROPA FRIDAY
THAN THE GFS. GOING FCST IN LINE WITH THE SLOWER GFS WITH A SLIGHT
CHC FOR TSTMS FRIDAY AFTN /FRIDAY EVENING. STILL A VERY WARM DAY
WITH HIGHS LIKELY REACHING THE MID 90S.

SATURDAY...LOOKS DRY WITH STRONG INFLUENCE FOR UPPER LOW OVER THE
GREAT LAKES. HIGHS COOLING TO NEAR 80 NORTHEAST TO THE MID 80S
SOUTHWEST.

.EXTENDED DISCUSSION...(SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
HIGHS SUNDAY WILL WARM TO THE MID 80S AHEAD OF NEXT COLD FRONT
SUNDAY NIGHT. A SLIGHT CHC SUNDAY AFTN/SUNDAY NIGHT ACROSS
SOUTHWESTERN HALF OF FA. MONDAY WILL BE STRONGLY INFLUENCED BY GREAT
LAKES UPPER LOW WITH HIGHS FROM THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S. IN NW
FLOW ALOFT...SOME MOISTURE AVAILABLE TO WARRANT A SLIGHT CHC THROUGH
MOST OF EXTENDED PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...
CONVECTION...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED...WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT TO
AIRCRAFT OPERATIONS AT THE KLBF AND KVTN TAF SITES THE NEXT 24
HOURS. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH MOST OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD HOWEVER STORMS IN THE VCNTY OF THE TERMINAL WILL BE CAPABLE
OF PRODUCING MVFR CONDITIONS IN MODERATE RAINFALL AND POSSIBLY HAIL.
WIND GUSTS NEAR STORMS THIS EVENING WILL ALSO BE CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING GUSTY WINDS...WITH OVER 60 MPH GUSTS POSSIBLE IN SEVERE
WARNED STORMS.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IN
EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM CDT/9 PM MDT FOR KEITH...LINCOLN...CUSTER...
PERKINS...CHASE...HAYES...AND FRONTIER.

&&

DISCUSSION...ROBERG
AVIATION...13

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
315 PM CDT WED JUL 22 2009

NEZ004>010-022>029-035>038-056>059-069>071-094-232015-
SHERIDAN-EASTERN CHERRY-KEYA PAHA-BOYD-BROWN-ROCK-HOLT-GARDEN-
GRANT-HOOKER-THOMAS-BLAINE-LOUP-GARFIELD-WHEELER-ARTHUR-MCPHERSON-
LOGAN-CUSTER-DEUEL-KEITH-PERKINS-LINCOLN-CHASE-HAYES-FRONTIER-
WESTERN CHERRY-
315 PM CDT WED JUL 22 2009 /215 PM MDT WED JUL 22 2009/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF WESTERN AND
NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVING THROUGH WESTERN NEBRASKA WILL
LEAD TO THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS ACROSS
MUCH OF SOUTHWEST AND CENTRAL NEBRASKA. A FEW OF THESE STORMS WILL
BE CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL AND WIND DAMAGE. IN ADDITION...VERY HEAVY
RAINFALL...UP TO AN INCH PER HOUR...WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THESE
STORMS.

JULY IS THE MOST FAVORABLE MONTH FOR VERY LARGE HAIL ACROSS
WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA. BE ALERT TO INTENSE SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

THURSDAY...HEAT...MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL INCREASE. WINDS
ALOFT WILL BE STRONG AND ANOTHER WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE OUT OF WYOMING AND ACROSS NEBRASKA LATE IN THE
DAY. ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL AND WIND
DAMAGE ARE POSSIBLE FROM LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON ONWARD. THE
THUNDERSTORMS COULD LAST UNTIL LATE AT NIGHT AS MOISTURE CONTINUES
TO INCREASE AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WHICH WILL MOVE THROUGH FRIDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED THROUGH TONIGHT.

&&

THIS PRODUCT IS NOW AVAILABLE...ALONG WITH OTHER WEATHER...
HYDROLOGICAL AND CLIMATOLOGICAL INFORMATION...AT
HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/NORTHPLATTE

13

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
329 PM CDT WED JUL 22 2009

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0327 PM     HAIL             5 NW BRANDON            40.85N 102.00W
07/22/2009  E1.00 INCH       PERKINS            NE   PUBLIC

            PUBLIC REPORTED QUARTER SIZE HAIL FROM STORM.

&&

SJACOBS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
333 PM CDT WED JUL 22 2009

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0330 PM     TSTM WND GST     2 W BRANDON             40.80N 101.97W
07/22/2009  E70 MPH          PERKINS            NE   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS WERE ESTIMATED AT 70 MPH. THE
            WINDS WERE ACCOMPANIED BY HAIL RANGING FROM PEA SIZE TO
            ONE HALF INCH IN DIAMETER.

&&

CJS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
336 PM CDT WED JUL 22 2009

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0336 PM     HEAVY RAIN       5 W BRULE               41.10N 101.98W
07/22/2009  M1.90 INCH       KEITH              NE   PUBLIC

            PUBLIC REPORTED 1.90 INCHES OF RAIN IN 20 TO 25 MINUTES
            WITH 50 MPH WIND GUSTS. THIS IS A DELAYED REPORT.

&&

SJACOBS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
342 PM CDT WED JUL 22 2009

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0341 PM     HAIL             3 W BRANDON             40.80N 101.99W
07/22/2009  M2.00 INCH       PERKINS            NE   PUBLIC

            THE PUBLIC REPORTED HAIL UP TO 2 INCHES WITH THUNDERSTORM
            WIND DAMAGE TO TREES.

&&

SJACOBS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
343 PM CDT WED JUL 22 2009

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0342 PM     TSTM WND DMG     3 W BRANDON             40.80N 101.99W
07/22/2009                   PERKINS            NE   PUBLIC

            THE PUBLIC REPORTED 3-4 INCH DIAMETER TREE LIMBS BROKEN
            FROM 70 MPH WIND GUSTS.

&&

SJACOBS