Severe Thunderstorm Warning 303, NWS North Platte, NE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
325 PM CDT MON JUL 20 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
UPPER LOW OVER SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA...DEEP TROUGH THROUGH THE
GREAT LAKES AND H5 RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN CONUS. AT THE SURFACE
WEAK COLD FRONT THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS. WEAK SURFACE LOW OVER
EASTERN COLORADO WITH INVERTED TROUGH THROUGH WESTERN NEBRASKA.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THURSDAY ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PLAINS.  BY FRIDAY SOME DIFFERENCES ENTER INTO THE FORECAST
INVOLVING THE STRENGTH OF THE WESTERN RIDGE.  GFS MAINTANAINS A
RIDGE ACROSS THE ROCKIES EXTENDING INTO BRITISH COLUMBIA AND
BRINGING NORTH NORTHWEST FLOW OVER NEBRASKA.  THE EUROPEAN DAMPENS
THE RIDGE AND BRINGS MORE WESTERLY FLOW.  THIS DIFFERENCE IS DUE TO
THE DIFFERENT HANDLING OVER THE GREAT LAKES.  THE GFS DEVELOPS A
CLOSED LOW OVER THE LAKES AND ROTATES IT DEEP INTO THE UPPER
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY AND THEN BACK OVER LAKE MICHIGAN. GFS
ENSEMBLE RUNS SHOW THE OPERATIONAL RUN WITH THE WANDERING CLOSED LOW
TO BE AN OUTLIER.  HOWEVER AM NOT CONFIDENT IN THIS EUROPEAN
SOLUTION OF A BROAD FLAT WESTERN RIDGE AND NONE OF THE GFS ENSEMBLES
SHOW THE RIDGE FLATTENING.  SO WILL TRY TO HOLD ON TO THE STATUS QUO
IN THE FORECAST AND SEE WHAT LATER MODEL RUNS BRING.  AM INCLINED TO
LEAN NEW DAY SEVEN IN THE DIRECTION OF DAY 6 AND ASSUME THE WESTERN
RIDGE REMAINS IN PLACE UTILIZING A PERSISTANCE TYPE FORECAST
MODEL...UNTIL I SEE GREATER MODEL CONSISTENCY.

TONIGHT TDS IN THE 60S AND POOLED ALONG FRONTAL BOUNDARY. SB
CAPES IN THE 1500-2000 J/KG RANGE. MODERATELY UNSTABLE WITH
ISOLATED ONGOING PRECIPITATION. AS THE FRONT BEGINS IS SOUTHWARD
PUSH EXPECT STORMS TO FIRE WITH INCREASING COVERAGE AND SOME
STORMS COULD BECOME SEVERE.

.TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...THE FRONT PASSES OUT OF THE STATE HOWEVER SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES QUICKLY SOUTH AND ALL MODELS SHOWING RESULTANT
UPSLOPE FLOW BRINGING THUNDERSTORMS BACK INTO THE SOUTHWEST BY 12Z
WEDNESDAY. POPS ALREADY IN THE GRIDS AND LEFT BUT THE TRAJECTORY OF
THE HIGH SEEMS TO BE SUCH THAT ANY UPSLOPE SHOULD BE JUST OUTSIDE OF
OUR CWA.

.THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...A FRONTAL BOUNDARY CROSSES THE AREA AND THIS
SHOULD PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WHICH WILL BE THE
FOCUS.

.IN THE EXTENDED...THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK SHOW THE
POTENTIAL FOR WARMER TEMPERATURES IF THE EUROPEAN IS FOLLOWED.  WE
MAY SEE A RETURN TO THE 90S.

&&

.AVIATION...
FRONT HAS PUSHED THROUGH KVTN BUT POST FRONTAL TRW OVER THE
DAKOTAS PUSHING SOUTHEAST HAVE INCLUDED TEMPO GROUPS FOR KVTN
THROUGH EARLY EVENING WITH MVFR CONDITIONS VISIBILITIES. KLBF
LOOKS MORE UNCERTAIN FOR THUNDERSTORMS HAVE LEFT OUT OF THE TAF
THIS EVENING. STRATUS SIGNATURE SEEN AT KLBF FOR EARLY MORNING
POST FRONTAL WILL TAKE A CLOSER LOOK AT TAF ISSUANCE.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH UNTIL
11 PM CDT /10 PM MDT/ THIS EVENING FOR
NEZ004-005-022>027-035>038-056>059-069>071-094.

&&

SHORT TERM/EXTENDED...POWER/HIRSCH
AVIATION...KECK

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
355 PM CDT MON JUL 20 2009

NEZ004>010-022>029-035>038-056>059-069>071-094-212100-
SHERIDAN-EASTERN CHERRY-KEYA PAHA-BOYD-BROWN-ROCK-HOLT-GARDEN-
GRANT-HOOKER-THOMAS-BLAINE-LOUP-GARFIELD-WHEELER-ARTHUR-MCPHERSON-
LOGAN-CUSTER-DEUEL-KEITH-PERKINS-LINCOLN-CHASE-HAYES-FRONTIER-
WESTERN CHERRY-
355 PM CDT MON JUL 20 2009 /255 PM MDT MON JUL 20 2009/

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH TONIGHT FOR WESTERN AND PORTIONS OF
NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF WESTERN AND
NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE TO THE SOUTH OVER WESTERN AND NORTH
CENTRAL NEBRASKA TONIGHT. THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP ALONG THE
FRONT WILL BECOME SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING THUNDERSTORM
WINDS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...HEAT...MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL
RETURN. A STATIONARY FRONT WILL BE LOCATED SOMEWHERE ACROSS THE
CENTRAL PLAINS. THE FRONT AND ANY DISTURBANCE WHICH CROSSES THE
CENTRAL PLAINS COULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT.
WINDS ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO BE STRONG SUPPORTIVE OF ISOLATED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL OR WIND DAMAGE.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED.

&&

THIS PRODUCT IS NOW AVAILABLE...ALONG WITH OTHER WEATHER...
HYDROLOGICAL AND CLIMATOLOGICAL INFORMATION...AT
HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/NORTHPLATTE

POWER

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
550 PM CDT MON JUL 20 2009

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0546 PM     HAIL             7 SW BRANDON            40.73N 102.03W
07/20/2009  E1.75 INCH       PERKINS            NE   PUBLIC

            PUBLIC REPORT OF GOLF BALL SIZED HAIL OCCURRING IN
            VENANGO.

&&

CARMEL

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
554 PM CDT MON JUL 20 2009

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0551 PM     HAIL             5 SW BRANDON            40.75N 102.00W
07/20/2009  M1.00 INCH       PERKINS            NE   FIRE DEPT/RESCUE

            TRAINED FIRE DEPARTMENT SPOTTER REPORTED AN ESTIMATED 50
            MPH WINDS OCCURRING WITH THE HAIL...AT A LOCATION 2 MILES
            SOUTHEAST OF VENANGO.

&&

CARMEL

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
601 PM CDT MON JUL 20 2009

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0526 PM     HAIL             7 SE WHITMAN            41.97N 101.44W
07/20/2009  E1.00 INCH       GRANT              NE   PUBLIC

&&

BHIRSCH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
607 PM CDT MON JUL 20 2009

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0430 PM     HAIL             7 N LEMOYNE             41.39N 101.80W
07/20/2009  E2.50 INCH       KEITH              NE   PUBLIC

&&

POWER

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
611 PM CDT MON JUL 20 2009

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0605 PM     HAIL             5 SW IMPERIAL           40.47N 101.71W
07/20/2009  M2.75 INCH       CHASE              NE   PUBLIC

&&

CARMEL

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
642 PM CDT MON JUL 20 2009

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0630 PM     HAIL             10 NE OSHKOSH           41.51N 102.21W
07/20/2009  M0.50 INCH       GARDEN             NE   CO-OP OBSERVER

            PEA TO MARBLE SIZE HAIL OCCURRED FROM 630 PM CDT THROUGH
            638 PM CDT.

&&

CARMEL