Severe Thunderstorm Warning 251, NWS North Platte, NE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
338 PM CDT MON JUL 13 2009

.DISCUSSION...
ANOTHER ACTIVE DAY IS INSTORE FOR THE FORECAST AREA. SURFACE LOW
DEVELOPING OVER FAR NW SD THIS AFTERNOON...WHILE A TROF LIES
ACROSS THE FRONT RANGE OF THE ROCKIES. ALSO HAVE A NORTH/SOUTH
THERMAL BOUNDARY OVER THE CENTRAL NEBRASKA...CAUSE BY CLOUDS OVER
CENTRAL/EASTERN NEB.

TONIGHT...THUNDERSTORMS ARE HIGHLY LIKELY EVENTUALLY...AND A GOOD
CHANCE FOR SOME TO REACH SEVERE LIMITS. ALREADY HAVE WATCH BOXES TO
THE NORTH AND WEST. AFTERNOON HEATING HAS ERODED MOST OF THE CAP
OVER CENTRAL NEBRASKA...WHERE DEW PTS AROUND 70 DEGREES. FURTHER
WEST DEW PTS LOWER...HAVE STILL HAVE A SMALL CAP IN PLACE. 12Z
MODELS HAVING A VERY DIFFICULT TIME WITH THE NUMEROUS
BOUNDARIES...AS NONE HAVE QPF WHERE THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN SO FAR
THIS AFTERNOON. 18Z RUN STARTING TO COME IN...AND QUICK ANALYSIS
HAS MUCH BETTER PLACEMENT OF CURRENT ACTIVITY...ALTHOUGH MODELS
DID NOT HANDLE LAST NIGHTS ACTIVITY VERY WELL. 18Z KLBF SOUNDINGS
SHOWED LI/S ALREADY AT -7.0 AND WHEN MODIFIED FOR LATEST
OB...STILL HAVE A SMALL CAP /-15 J/KG/ AND A VERY UNSTABLE
ATMOSPHERE.

COLD FRONT TO PUSH ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT AND TOMORROW
MORNING...AND AM EXPECTING TO SEE THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP ALONG THE
FRONT. ALSO HAVE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR DEVELOP OVER EASTERN ZONES
WELL AHEAD OF THE FRONT...MAINLY THIS EVENING. CLOUDS MAY HAVE
BEEN ENOUGH TO KEEP THIS FROM FIRING. SHEER IS GOOD AND EXPECT
SOME ROTATING THUNDERSTORMS...HOWEVER OVERNIGHT FAVORS HAIL...BUT
A TORNADO CAN NOT BE RULED OUT.

SLIGHTLY COOLER AND DRIER AIR FILLS IN BEHIND THE FRONT FOR
TUESDAY. EXPECT THE FRONT LOCATION TO BE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE
AREA...THUS HAVE GONE DRY. HOWEVER...DRY SPELL TO BE SHORT
LIVED...AS FRONT LIFTS BACK NORTH FOR WEDNESDAY. MEANWHILE A RIDGE
BEGINS TO BUILD NORTH FROM THE DESERT SOUTHWEST INTO THE WESTERN
ROCKIES. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP US IN AN ACTIVE PATTERN FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES TO BE
SEASONAL /80S AND LOWER 90S/ AND MOISTURE WILL RETURN TO THE
REGION...THUS LATE AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN IN
THE FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA
LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT.
VISIBILITIES MAY DROP TO LOW MVFR CONDITIONS IN HEAVY RAIN WITH
THE THUNDERSTORMS. CIGS WILL REMAIN VFR. THE COLD FRONT WILL
LIKELY EXTEND ALONG A LINE FROM NEAR KANW TO KLBF BY 12Z TUE. EAST
OF THIS FRONT...EXPECT THE SOUTHERLY WINDS USHERING ABUNDANT
MOISTURE INTO THE AREA TO PRODUCE MVFR/IFR CIGS IN STRATUS CLOUDS.
WEST OF THE FRONT...WESTERLY DOWNSLOPE WINDS WILL KEEP SKIES VFR.
THE ONE CAVEAT IS THE ACTUAL LOCATION OF THE FRONT. COMPUTER
MODELS ARE NOT IN AGREEMENT WITH THIS SO THE LOCATION GIVEN ABOVE
IS MY BEST ESTIMATION SO THEREFORE DID NOT INCLUDE THE MVFR CIGS
IN THE KLBF TAF. THE FRONT WILL MARCH EASTWARD WITH MVFR CIGS
BECOMING VFR IN THE KBBW AREA BY 17Z AND KONL BY 19Z.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

SHORT TERM/EXTENDED...MASEK
AVIATION...DDB

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
328 PM CDT MON JUL 13 2009

NEZ004>010-022>029-035>038-056>059-069>071-094-142030-
SHERIDAN-EASTERN CHERRY-KEYA PAHA-BOYD-BROWN-ROCK-HOLT-GARDEN-
GRANT-HOOKER-THOMAS-BLAINE-LOUP-GARFIELD-WHEELER-ARTHUR-MCPHERSON-
LOGAN-CUSTER-DEUEL-KEITH-PERKINS-LINCOLN-CHASE-HAYES-FRONTIER-
WESTERN CHERRY-
328 PM CDT MON JUL 13 2009 /228 PM MDT MON JUL 13 2009/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF WESTERN AND
NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER ALL OF
WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE EAST ACROSS WESTERN NEBRASKA TONIGHT WITH THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOPING ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THE MAIN THREAT WITH
THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP WILL BE LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS AND
HEAVY RAIN. HOWEVER...AN ISOLATED TORNADO CAN NOT BE RULED OUT
ACROSS WESTERN CHERRY COUNTY AND THE EASTERN PANHANDLE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE EACH NIGHT FROM WEDNESDAY
NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT AS SOUTHEAST UPSLOPE WINDS COMBINE WITH
WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES TO PROVIDE A MOIST...UNSTABLE
ENVIRONMENT FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. THE MAIN THREAT FROM THE
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE HEAVY RAIN...GUSTY WINDS...DEADLY LIGHTNING.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED TONIGHT ACROSS MUCH OF WESTERN
AND NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA.

&&

THIS PRODUCT IS NOW AVAILABLE...ALONG WITH OTHER WEATHER...
HYDROLOGICAL AND CLIMATOLOGICAL INFORMATION...AT
HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/NORTHPLATTE

DDB

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
829 PM CDT MON JUL 13 2009

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0820 PM     FUNNEL CLOUD     10 SW VALENTINE         42.77N 100.69W
07/13/2009                   CHERRY             NE   PUBLIC

&&

CARMEL

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
841 PM CDT MON JUL 13 2009

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0839 PM     HAIL             8 SW VALENTINE          42.79N 100.66W
07/13/2009  M1.00 INCH       CHERRY             NE   PUBLIC

&&

CARMEL

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
845 PM CDT MON JUL 13 2009

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0843 PM     HAIL             VALENTINE               42.87N 100.55W
07/13/2009  M1.75 INCH       CHERRY             NE   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            SHERIFF REPORTED GOLFBALL SIZED HAIL ON HIGHWAY 97 AT THE
            NIOBRARA RIVER.

&&

CARMEL