Severe Thunderstorm Warning 174, NWS North Platte, NE

000 
WWUS53 KLBF 260047
SVSLBF

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
647 PM MDT THU JUN 25 2009

NEC029-085-260100-
/O.CON.KLBF.SV.W.0174.000000T0000Z-090626T0100Z/
HAYES NE-CHASE NE-
647 PM MDT THU JUN 25 2009

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 700 PM
MDT/800 PM CDT/ FOR CHASE AND WESTERN HAYES COUNTIES...

AT 743 PM CDT/643 PM MDT/...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR
CONTINUED TO INDICATE A LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING GOLF BALL SIZE HAIL...AND DESTRUCTIVE WINDS IN EXCESS OF 70
MPH.  THESE STORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 7 MILES
NORTHEAST OF HAMLET TO 6 MILES SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 6 MILE MARKER 10...OR
ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 8 MILES SOUTHWEST OF HAYES CENTER TO 11
MILES WEST OF IMPERIAL...MOVING NORTH AT 30 MPH.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE NEAR...
  HIGHWAY 6 MILE MARKER 10 BY 655 PM MDT...
  HIGHWAY 61 MILE MARKER 50...LAMAR AND 7 MILES SOUTHWEST OF HIGHWAY
  25 MILE MARKER 50 BY 800 PM CDT...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

THIS STORM HAS A HISTORY OF PRODUCING DESTRUCTIVE WINDS AND LARGE
DAMAGING HAIL. SEEK SHELTER NOW INSIDE A STURDY STRUCTURE AND STAY
AWAY FROM WINDOWS

&&

LAT...LON 4034 10205 4068 10205 4069 10104 4034 10104
TIME...MOT...LOC 0047Z 175DEG 26KT 4049 10116 4049 10185

$$

TAYLOR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
308 PM CDT THU JUN 25 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
H5 RIDGE CONTINUES TO DOMINATE CENTRAL CONUS WITH TROUGHS ON BOTH
COASTS AS SEEN IN VISIBLE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN NEAR TERM AND WILL USE A BLEND FOR THE
FORECAST. MID AND HIGH CLOUDS CONTINUE TO DISSIPATE AS THEY MOVE
INTO WESTERN NEBRASKA THIS AFTERNOON. MASSIVE SB CAPES THIS
AFTERNOON WITH UNSTABLE BOUNDARY LAYER. PWATS 150 PERCENT OF
NORMAL AND STORM MOTION 7KTS. STRONG CAP OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF
THE CWA. HAVE INCREASED POPS TO THE WEST. FRIDAY A COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WITH GOOD FORCING IN THE 700MB TO
850MB LAYER. TDS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S. CAPES NOT AS HIGH BUT
AMPLE FORCING WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND A 40+KT LLJ FEEDING
INTO THE AREA JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT ANOTHER ROUND OF SEVERE
WEATHER. TEMPERATURES TO COOL SATURDAY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS INTO WESTERN NEBRASKA. HAVE DROPPED HIGHS INTO THE 80S
THIS WEEKEND. EXTENDED MODELS IN FAIR AGREEMENT HAVE NOT MADE TOO
MANY MODIFICATIONS AND FOLLOWED THE GFS. THE H5 RIDGE WILL BEGIN
TO BUILD INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS AGAIN SUNDAY INTO TUESDAY.
ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE ONLY ONE STANDARD DEVIATION WITH TEMPERATURES IN
THE 90S. NEXT NORTHERN SYSTEM TO IMPACT CWA ON TUESDAY NIGHT WEDNESDAY.
HAVE RETAINED SCHC. LEFT THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST DRY.

&&

.AVIATION...
NEAR TERM MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE UPPER RIDGE TO
AMPLIFY AND BUILD EAST ON FRIDAY. TONIGHT DISTURBANCES EMBEDDED IN
THE FLOW WILL LIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS THE PANHANDLE AND SOUTHWEST THIS
EVENING WITH CONVECTION ON THE HIGH PLAINS TO MOVE NORTHEAST
INITIALLY THEN MORE EAST OVERNIGHT. AT 18Z WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
DOMINATED THE NORTH AND CENTRAL PLAINS AS WEAK BOUNDARIES WILL SERVE
AS FOCUSES FOR CONVECTION WITH THE HEATING OF THE DAY. VISUAL FLIGHT
RULES ARE ANTICIPATED AT TERMINALS KLBF AND KVTN WITH KLBF MOST
LIKELY TO BE IMPACTED BY CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT TONIGHT. IN THE KLBF
TERMINAL USED VCTS AS IMPACTS BY CONVECTION MAY BE LATE WITH 00Z TAF
ISSUANCE TO PROVIDE BETTER DEFINITION AS TO AREAL COVERAGE FOR
STORMS TONIGHT. THE STORMS WILL BE HIGH BASED WHILE BOUNDARY LAYER
MOISTURE DEEPENS OVERNIGHT FOR CEILINGS TO LOWER TO 070 TO 090 KFT
TOWARD DAYBREAK FRIDAY.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM/EXTENDED...POWER
AVIATION...KECK

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
234 PM CDT THU JUN 25 2009

NEZ004>010-022>029-035>038-056>059-069>071-094-261000-
SHERIDAN-EASTERN CHERRY-KEYA PAHA-BOYD-BROWN-ROCK-HOLT-GARDEN-
GRANT-HOOKER-THOMAS-BLAINE-LOUP-GARFIELD-WHEELER-ARTHUR-MCPHERSON-
LOGAN-CUSTER-DEUEL-KEITH-PERKINS-LINCOLN-CHASE-HAYES-FRONTIER-
WESTERN CHERRY-
234 PM CDT THU JUN 25 2009 /134 PM MDT THU JUN 25 2009/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF WESTERN AND
NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

STRONG AFTERNOON HEATING AND ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...COMBINED
WITH APPROACHING DISTURBANCES...WILL LEAD TO ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. STRONG INSTABILITY AND SUFFICIENT WIND
SHEAR WILL ALLOW THUNDERSTORMS TO REACH SEVERE LIMITS WITH LARGE
HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS THE PRIMARY THREATS...ALTHOUGH AN ISOLATED
TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED OUT.

THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE ENTIRE OUTLOOK AREA...THE
GREATEST THREAT FOR ORGANIZED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IS WEST OF A
LINE FROM VALENTINE TO STOCKVILLE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL
NEBRASKA LATE ON FRIDAY. AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES
EAST...THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT.
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE ENTIRE OUTLOOK AREA
WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS THE MAIN THREATS.

THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
AT THIS TIME...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT IN
AREAS WEST OF HIGHWAY 83.

&&

THIS PRODUCT IS NOW AVAILABLE...ALONG WITH OTHER WEATHER...
HYDROLOGICAL AND CLIMATOLOGICAL INFORMATION...AT
HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/NORTHPLATTE

KECK