Coastal Flood Statement 2, NWS Key West, FL

000 
WHUS42 KKEY 200405
CFWKEY

COASTAL HAZARD MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
1205 AM EDT SUN SEP 20 2009

FLZ076>078-200600-
/O.CON.KKEY.CF.S.0002.000000T0000Z-090920T0600Z/
MONROE UPPER KEYS-MONROE MIDDLE KEYS-MONROE LOWER KEYS-
1205 AM EDT SUN SEP 20 2009

...MINOR STREET FLOODING EXPECTED FROM PERIGEAN SPRING TIDES...

A LUNAR PERIGEE EARLIER THIS WEEK CONTINUES TO RESULT IN TIDE
LEVELS HIGHER THAN NORMALLY SEEN IN THE FLORIDA KEYS. MINOR TIDAL
OVERFLOW WILL OCCUR AT SOME LOCATIONS IN THE KEYS DURING THE
HIGHER HIGH TIDES TONIGHT. WATER LEVELS NEAR 3 FEET ABOVE MEAN
LOWER LOW WATER ARE EXPECTED A COUPLE OF HOURS ON EITHER SIDE OF
THE TIMES OF HIGHER HIGH TIDE TONIGHT.

AT KEY WEST HARBOR...THE HIGHER HIGH TIDE OCCURRED AT 1100 PM
SATURDAY NIGHT.

AT VACA CUT...THE HIGHER HIGH TIDE OCCURRED AT 949 PM SATURDAY
NIGHT.

AT WHALE HARBOR CHANNEL...THE HIGHER HIGH TIDE OCCURRED AT 
1008 PM SATURDAY NIGHT.

IN ADDITION...MINOR TIDAL OVERFLOW IS POSSIBLE AROUND THE TIMES
OF HIGHER HIGH TIDES SUNDAY NIGHT.

MAXIMUM TIDAL CURRENT SPEED WILL EXCEED 3 KNOTS IN SOME CHANNELS
BETWEEN TIMES OF HIGH AND LOW TIDE. A FEW OF THE CHANNELS WITH
THE HIGHEST CURRENT SPEED INCLUDE MOSER CHANNEL...BAHIA HONDA
CHANNEL...AND THE KEY WEST SHIPPING CHANNEL NEAR FORT ZACHARY
TAYLOR STATE PARK.

PLEASE REPORT COASTAL FLOODING TO YOUR FLORIDA KEYS NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE. DIAL 305-295-1316 EXTENSION 3.

ADDITIONAL STATEMENTS WILL BE ISSUED AS NEEDED CONCERNING THESE
ABOVE NORMAL TIDES.

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
255 PM EDT SAT SEP 19 2009

.DISCUSSION...
.CURRENTLY...
KBYX DETECTS ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGHOUT THE
FORECAST AREA. SKIES OVER THE ISLAND CHAIN ARE PARTLY CLOUDY. WINDS
OVER LAND ARE SOUTHEAST NEAR 5 MPH. C-MAN WINDS...ON AVERAGE...ARE
SOUTHEAST AT 5 TO 10 KNOTS. TEMPERATURES ARE NEAR 90 DEGREES. ONLY
ABOUT SEVEN DEGREES OF COOLING IS EXPECTED TONIGHT DUE TO LIGHT EAST
TO SOUTHEAST SURFACE WINDS OVER WATER WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER
80S.

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)...
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE OVER SOUTH FLORIDA WILL DISSIPATE TONIGHT.
THE SERVICE AREA WILL BE LOCATED ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A
LARGE ANTICYCLONE...CENTERED IN THE NORTHWEST ATLANTIC OCEAN...
SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. LACK OF LARGE SCALE LIFT WILL LIMIT POPS TO
SLIGHT CHANCE CATEGORY TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. WINDS WILL BACK
TO MORE OF A NORTHEASTERLY DIRECTION MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...AHEAD
OF A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE...FORMERLY KNOWN AS HURRICANE FRED. A
NORTHEASTERLY STEERING FLOW OF 10 TO 15 KNOTS WILL PUSH CONVECTION
THAT DEVELOPS OVER THE SOUTH FLORIDA PENINSULA TOWARD THE FLORIDA
KEYS MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EARLY MONDAY NIGHT. AS A RESULT...RAIN
CHANCES WILL BE A LITTLE HIGHER MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT COMPARED TO
TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.

A LUNAR PERIGEE EARLIER THIS WEEK CONTINUES TO RESULT IN TIDE LEVELS
HIGHER THAN NORMALLY SEEN IN THE FLORIDA KEYS. TIDES THIS MORNING
PEAKED AT JUST ABOVE 2.8 FEET ABOVE MEAN LOWER LOW WATER. A HIGHER
HIGH TIDE WILL OCCUR FROM 900 PM TO 1100 PM TONIGHT. GIVEN A
CONSTANT TIDAL ANOMALY OF AROUND THREE QUARTERS OF A FOOT...TIDE
LEVELS TONIGHT SHOULD PEAK AT AROUND 3 FEET ABOVE MEAN LOWER LOW
WATER. THIS WOULD RESULT IN MINOR STREET FLOODING OF LOW LYING AREAS
(2 FEET ABOVE MEAN SEA LEVEL). A COASTAL FLOOD STATEMENT WILL BE
ISSUED LATER THIS AFTERNOON FOR MINOR STREET FLOODING OF LOW LYING
AREAS TONIGHT.

.LONG TERM (MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...
MOST LIKELY...THE AFOREMENTIONED THROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE SHOULD PASS
ACROSS THE FLORIDA KEYS TUESDAY OR TUESDAY NIGHT. BROAD LOW LEVEL
CYCLONIC FLOW TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY WILL BE RESPONSIBLE FOR
MIDDLE OF THE ROAD CHANCE POPS. AN ATLANTIC RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
SHOULD EXTEND ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES THURSDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SATURDAY. RAIN CHANCES THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY WILL
BE NEAR NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

&&

.MARINE...
GENTLE EAST TO SOUTHEAST SURFACE WINDS EXPECTED ON ALL KEYS WATERS
TONIGHT. NO ADVISORIES OR CAUTIONARY STATEMENTS EXPECTED TONIGHT
THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THIS EVENING AT THE MARATHON AND KEY
WEST TERMINALS...WITH LIGHT WINDS AND SCT CLOUDS. AS ALWAYS...
ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL BE PRESENT WITHIN OUR SERVICE AREA. IF THUNDER
THREATENS EITHER TERMINAL...WE WILL ISSUE A TIMELY AMENDMENT.

&&

.CLIMATE...
ON THIS DATE IN KEYS WEATHER HISTORY...IN 1917...THE HIGH
TEMPERATURE IN KEY WEST WAS ONLY 79 DEGREES. THIS SET THE DAILY
RECORD FOR COOLEST HIGH TEMPERATURE MEASURED IN KEY WEST ON
SEPTEMBER 19TH...A RECORD WHICH STILL STANDS 92 YEARS LATER.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KEY WEST  82 90 81 90 / 20 20 20 30
MARATHON  82 91 81 91 / 20 20 20 30

&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

PUBLIC/MARINE/FIRE/CLIMATE/DIGITAL...BS
AVIATION/NOWCASTS....................DFM
DATA ACQUISITION.....................DR

VISIT US ON THE WEB AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/KEYWEST

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
600 AM EDT SAT SEP 19 2009

FLZ076>078-GMZ031>033-052>054-072>075-201000-
MONROE UPPER KEYS-MONROE MIDDLE KEYS-MONROE LOWER KEYS-
FLORIDA BAY-GULF SIDE OF THE LOWER KEYS OUT 20 NM-
GULF WATERS FROM EAST CAPE SABLE TO CHOKOLOSKEE 20 TO 60 NM OUT-
OCEAN REEF TO CRAIG KEY OUT 20 NM-
CRAIG KEY TO THE WEST END OF THE 7 MILE BRIDGE OUT 20 NM-
WEST END OF THE 7 MILE BRIDGE TO KEY WEST OUT 20 NM-
OCEAN REEF TO CRAIG KEY 20 TO 60 NM OUT-
CRAIG KEY TO THE WEST END OF THE 7 MILE BRIDGE 20 TO 60 NM OUT-
WEST END OF THE 7 MILE BRIDGE TO KEY WEST 20 TO 60 NM OUT-
KEY WEST TO 20 NM WEST OF DRY TORTUGAS OUT 60 NM-
600 AM EDT SAT SEP 19 2009

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS AND ADJACENT
COASTAL WATERS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE ISLAND CHAIN AND THE
SURROUNDING WATERS TODAY. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG
THE ISLAND CHAIN AND THE SURROUNDING WATERS TONIGHT. THE PRIMARY
THUNDERSTORM HAZARDS WILL BE LIGHTNING STRIKES AND GUSTY WINDS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

ISOLATED OR SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE FLORIDA
KEYS AND THE ADJACENT WATERS. THE PRIMARY THUNDERSTORM HAZARDS WILL
BE LIGHTNING STRIKES AND GUSTY WINDS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

DAF