Special Marine Warning 13, NWS JSJ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
511 AM AST MON AUG 17 2009

.SYNOPSIS...TROPICAL STORM ANA IS MOVING THROUGH THE SOUTHERN-MOST
PERIPHERY OF THE SAN JUAN FORECAST AREA TODAY AND WILL LEAVE
DURING THE EVENING. BILL IS STILL PROJECTED TO PASS TO THE
NORTHEAST ON THURSDAY A SUFFICIENT DISTANCE SO AS TO HAVE ONLY A
LIMITED EFFECT ON PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...THE FIRST RAIN BANDS OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION ANA HAVE
PASSED THROUGH SAINT CROIX LEAVING 0.06 INCHES OF RAIN AND GUSTS
TO 31 MPH. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEGUN TO DEVELOP ACROSS
THE ATLANTIC WATERS JUST NORTH OF SAN JUAN AND ALL SHOWERS ARE
MOVING AROUND 26 MPH. GIVEN THE PACE OF THE SHOWERS AND THE
COVERAGE IT HAS NOT SEEMED NECESSARY TO ISSUE A FLASH FLOOD WATCH
FOR ANY OF THE FORECAST AREA...ALTHOUGH SOME AREAS WILL RECEIVE
BLASTS OF VERY HEAVY RAIN WITH GUSTY WINDS AND THERE COULD BE SOME LOCAL
FLOODING DUE TO POOR DRAINAGE. OTHERWISE SHOWERS ARE MOVING
THROUGH SUFFICIENTLY QUICKLY SUCH THAT VERY HEAVY AMOUNTS ARE NOT
EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. WINDS AT ANTIGUA REACHED 25 KNOTS SUSTAINED
AND THESE ARE THE HIGHEST OF ANY OBSERVATIONS AVAILABLE. CURRENT
FORECAST TRACK AND INTENSITY APPEAR REASONABLE.

&&

.AVIATION...
A WEAK TROPICAL WAVE NEAR 63.5W BUT MAINLY SOUTH OF 19 NORTH WILL PASS
THROUGH THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE LOCAL AREA BETWEEN 17/10Z AND
18/00Z SPREADING ADDITIONAL MOISTURE...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. AREAS OF MVFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY
ESPECIALLY OVER SOUTHWEST PUERTO RICO AND INTERIOR MOUNTAIN
SECTIONS AS CLOUDS DEVELOP AND OBSCURE THE HIGHER MOUNTAIN TOPS.
WINDS AT LOWER LEVELS COULD REACH 40 KNOTS DURING THE PASSAGE OF
TROPICAL DEPRESSION ANA TO THE SOUTH. GUSTY SURFACE WINDS ARE A GIVEN.

&&

.MARINE...TROPICAL STORM ANA WILL BRING A RAPID INCREASE IN SEAS
AND WINDS. STRONGEST GUSTS HAVE ALREADY PASSED SAINT CROIX ON
THEIR WAY WEST AND ARE MOVING AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS ACROSS THE
CARIBBEAN. CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN TO IMPROVE TONIGHT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  88  79  90  79 /  70  20  20  50
STT  88  81  91  80 /  80  20  20  40

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR CENTRAL INTERIOR-CULEBRA-EASTERN
     INTERIOR-MAYAGUEZ AND VICINITY-NORTH CENTRAL-NORTHEAST-
     NORTHWEST-PONCE AND VICINITY-SAN JUAN AND VICINITY-
     SOUTHEAST-SOUTHWEST-VIEQUES-WESTERN INTERIOR.
     SCA...ALL ZONES.

VI...TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR ST CROIX-ST. THOMAS/ST. JOHN/ADJACENT
     ISLANDS.
     SCA...ALL ZONES.

&&

71/12

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