Flash Flood Warning 56, NWS JSJ

000 
WGCA72 TJSJ 120046
FFSSJU

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
846 PM AST WED NOV 11 2009

PRC073-075-107-113-149-120055-
/O.EXP.TJSJ.FF.W.0056.000000T0000Z-091112T0045Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
JAYUYA PR-OROCOVIS PR-VILLALBA PR-JUANA DIAZ PR-PONCE PR-
846 PM AST WED NOV 11 2009

...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING HAS EXPIRED FOR PONCE...JUANA DIAZ...
VILLALBA...OROCOVIS AND JAYUYA MUNICIPALITIES...

DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED THAT THE MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN WHICH 
AFFECTED THIS AREA HAD DISSIPATED OR MOVED AWAY. NO SIGNIFICANT 
ADDITIONAL RAINFALL IS EXPECTED ACROSS THESE AREAS OVER THE NEXT FEW 
HOURS. THEREFORE THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING HAS EXPIRED.

LAT...LON 1815 6666 1822 6657 1821 6644 1800 6642
      1800 6668

$$

EM

ADDITIONAL INFORMATION CAN BE FOUND AT /USE LOWER CASE LETTERS/:
     HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SANJUAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
427 PM AST WED NOV 11 2009

.SYNOPSIS...MID TO UPPER LEVEL LOW AND ASSOCIATED TROUGHINESS...
WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE LOCAL AREA TONIGHT INTO EARLY
THURSDAY...BEFORE LIFTING OUT TO THE EAST NORTHEAST LATER THURSDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY. BRIEF SHORT WAVE RIDGING WILL TAKE PLACE ACROSS
THE LOCAL AREA LATER THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT INTO AT LEAST A
PART OF FRIDAY...BEFORE HEIGHTS BEGIN TO FALL AGAIN AHEAD OF NEXT
APPROACHING MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH/LOW BEGINNING LATE FRIDAY
OR FRIDAY NIGHT AND THEN PROBABLY CONTINUING THROUGH MUCH OF THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...DEEPER MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO ADVECT SLOWLY
NORTHWEST ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY
AND IS THEN STILL EXPECTED TO LINGER NEARBY (MOST LIKELY
NORTHWEST HALF OF FA) FOR LATER THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...WITH
APPROACHING COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO MOVE EAST SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE
LOCAL ISLANDS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...PROBABLY PUSHING THIS
MOISTURE BACK ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS (SIMILAR TO PRE-FRONTAL
TROUGH)...WITH COLD FRONTAL MOISTURE THEN OUTLOOKED ACROSS THE FA
FOR THE SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY TIME FRAME.

SO...FOR TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY...SURFACE TROUGH
EXTENDING ACROSS PUERTO RICO LATE THIS AFTERNOON...WILL CONTINUE
MOVING SLOWLY NORTHWEST ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE LOCAL AREA.
THIS FEATURE AND ITS ASSOCIATED DEEP MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO
INTERACT WITH GENERALLY FAVORABLE DYNAMICS AND LOCAL EFFECTS TO
PRODUCE A GOOD DEAL OF CLOUDINESS...SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS. ALTHOUGH RAINFALL HAS NOT
BEEN WIDESPREAD...SHOWERS AND STORMS THAT HAVE FORMED HAVE BEEN
INTENSE...WITH VERY HEAVY TO TORRENTIAL RAINFALL. ALTHOUGH OUR
FEELING TODAY AND INTO TONIGHT HAS BEEN THAT A SIGNIFICANT AND/OR
WIDESPREAD FLASH FLOOD EVENT IS NOT LIKELY...GIVEN WSR-88D AND
SATELLITE TRENDS...THIS STILL CANNOT BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT AND
CERTAINLY URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOODING WILL OCCUR IN SOME AREAS
TONIGHT...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR AT LEAST SOME LOCALIZED FLASH OR
RIVER FLOODING. FOR THIS REASON...WE HAVE OPTED TO KEEP THE FLASH
FLOOD WATCH IN PLACE FOR NOW.

FOR LATER THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...PERIODS OF UNSETTLED
WEATHER ARE STILL EXPECTED...AS MOISTURE LINGERS NEARBY AND
CONTINUES TO INTERACT WITH DIURNAL AND NOCTURNAL PROCESSES.
ALTHOUGH IT IS TOO EARLY TO BE SURE AT THIS TIME...SUNDAY THROUGH
MONDAY AND POSSIBLY TUESDAY...COULD BECOME ACTIVE AGAIN FOR AT
LEAST A TIME...AS COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES INTO OR ACROSS THE
LOCAL ISLANDS. STAY TUNED.

A HIGH SURF ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHWEST THROUGH
NORTHEAST COASTS OF ALL OF THE LOCAL ISLANDS THROUGH 4 AM AST
THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...EXPECT PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS MOST OF THE
LOCAL ISLANDS AND TAF SITES TONIGHT. HOWEVER...MVFR AND LOCALLY
IFR CONDITIONS...MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS AND LOCALLY STRONG SURFACE
WIND GUSTS WILL CONTINUE IN BANDS AND PATCHES OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH AT LEAST 12/01Z. ANY VOLCANIC ASH AND STEAM
SHOULD MOVE NORTHWEST TO NORTH NORTHWEST AND COULD EVENTUALLY
BECOME AN ISSUE FOR TIST AND TISX.

&&

.MARINE...HAZARDOUS MARINE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH LATER
TONIGHT OR EARLY THURSDAY...DEPENDING ON THE MARINE ZONE. LONG
PERIOD...NORTH NORTHEAST SWELLS HAVE PEAKED...BUT WILL CONTINUE TO
AFFECT THE ATLANTIC WATERS AND THE CARIBBEAN PASSAGES TONIGHT
THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY...WHILE SLOWLY SUBSIDING. A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR MOST OF THE LOCAL ATLANTIC AND
CARIBBEAN WATERS AND THE CARIBBEAN PASSAGES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  75  88  76  88 /  50  50  30  30
STT  78  87  79  86 /  50  40  40  40

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL MIDNIGHT AST TONIGHT FOR CENTRAL
     INTERIOR-CULEBRA-EASTERN INTERIOR-MAYAGUEZ AND VICINITY-
     NORTH CENTRAL-NORTHEAST-NORTHWEST-PONCE AND VICINITY-SAN
     JUAN AND VICINITY-SOUTHEAST-SOUTHWEST-VIEQUES-WESTERN
     INTERIOR.

     HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM AST THURSDAY FOR CULEBRA-MAYAGUEZ
     AND VICINITY-NORTH CENTRAL-NORTHEAST-NORTHWEST-SAN JUAN AND
     VICINITY-VIEQUES.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY AMZ710...712...715...722...725...732...
     741 AND 742.

VI...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL MIDNIGHT AST TONIGHT FOR ST CROIX-ST.
     THOMAS/ST. JOHN/ADJACENT ISLANDS.

     HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM AST THURSDAY FOR ST CROIX-ST.
     THOMAS/ST. JOHN/ADJACENT ISLANDS.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY AMZ710...715...722...725 AND 732.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S. VIRGIN
ISLANDS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
539 AM AST WED NOV 11 2009

AMZ710>745-PRZ001>013-120945-
SAN JUAN AND VICINITY-NORTHEAST-SOUTHEAST-EASTERN INTERIOR-
NORTH CENTRAL-CENTRAL INTERIOR-PONCE AND VICINITY-NORTHWEST-
WESTERN INTERIOR-MAYAGUEZ AND VICINITY-SOUTHWEST-CULEBRA-VIEQUES-
THE NEARSHORE AND OFF SHORE ATLANTIC AND CARIBBEAN COASTAL WATERS-
539 AM AST WED NOV 11 2009

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PUERTO RICO AND THE
ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

A MID TO UPPER LEVEL LOW...JUST NORTH OF PUERTO RICO THIS
MORNING IS PRODUCING A LARGE AREA OF CLOUDINESS EXTENDING FROM
PUERTO RICO EASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS AND
ACROSS THE ATLANTIC FOR SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES. THE ABUNDANT
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY IN COMBINATION WITH THE AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE...MAY PROVIDE FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR SIGNIFICANT
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT TODAY ACROSS PUERTO RICO INCLUDING VIEQUES
AND CULEBRA. ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS ACROSS THE CENTRAL INTERIOR AND WESTERN PUERTO
RICO WITH THE ADDITION OF DAYTIME HEATING AND LOCAL TERRAIN
EFFECTS. MUDSLIDES WILL BE LIKELY IN AREAS OF HEAVY RAINFALL AND
STEEP TERRAIN. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF
PUERTO RICO...VIEQUES AND CULEBRA THROUGH THIS EVENING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

THE LINGERING MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION WILL COMBINE WITH DAYTIME
HEATING AND LOCAL TERRAIN EFFECTS TO INDUCE THE DEVELOPMENT OF
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS WESTERN AND
INTERIOR PUERTO RICO WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

ANY HEAVY RAINFALL OR FLOODING REPORTS WOULD BE GREATLY
APPRECIATED.

AMZ715-725-VIZ001-002-120945-
ST. THOMAS ST. JOHN ADJACENT ISLANDS-ST CROIX-
NEARSHORE ATLANTIC AND ADJACENT CARIBBEAN COASTAL WATERS-
539 AM AST WED NOV 11 2009

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS AND
THE ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

A MID TO UPPER LEVEL LOW...JUST NORTH OF THE LOCAL ISLANDS THIS
MORNING IS PRODUCING A LARGE AREA OF CLOUDINESS EXTENDING FROM
PUERTO RICO EASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS AND
ACROSS THE ATLANTIC FOR SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES. THE ABUNDANT
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY IN COMBINATION WITH THE AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE...MAY PROVIDE FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR SIGNIFICANT
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT TODAY ACROSS THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS.
A FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF THE U.S. VIRGIN
ISLANDS THROUGH THIS EVENING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

LINGERING MOISTURE WILL INDUCE THE DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE LOCAL
ISLANDS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

ANY HEAVY RAINFALL OR FLOODING REPORTS WOULD BE GREATLY
APPRECIATED.