Flash Flood Warning 18, NWS JSJ

000 
WGCA72 TJSJ 220044
FFSSJU

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
844 PM AST THU MAY 21 2009

PRC037-053-220052-
/O.CAN.TJSJ.FF.W.0018.000000T0000Z-090522T0130Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
CEIBA PR-FAJARDO PR-
844 PM AST THU MAY 21 2009

...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING HAS BEEN CANCELLED FOR FAJARDO AND CEIBA
MUNICIPALITIES...

USGS GAGE AT FAJARDO RIVER AT PARAISO SHOWS THAT THE RIVER LEVEL 
CONTINUES TO DROP THIS EVENING WITH NO ADDITIONAL RAINFALL EXPECTED. 
THEREFORE...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING HAS BEEN CANCELED.



LAT...LON 1828 6568 1826 6571 1828 6577 1830 6576
      1830 6575 1828 6572 1830 6570 1831 6568
      1834 6562 1832 6562 1830 6565

$$

ROSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
303 PM AST THU MAY 21 2009

.SYNOPSIS...UPPER LEVEL TROUGHFINESS ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN
CARIBBEAN AND A WESTERLY SUBTROPICAL JET FLOW DOMINATING
ALOFT...IS KEEPING THE LOCAL AREA UNDER MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES DUE TO
THE THUNDERSTORM BLOW-OFF CLOUD MASS ASSOCIATED TO A MID TO UPPER
DISTURBANCE THAT COVERS MUCH OF THE WINDWARD PASSAGE/HAITI/HISPANIOLA.

AT LOW LEVELS...SURFACE TROUGH ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN
WILL MAINTAIN A GENTLE TO MODERATE SOUTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...WHILE BRINGING MOIST
TROPICAL AIRMASS ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...BIT OF A BREAK OF THE MID TO HIGH CLOUD COVERAGE WITHIN
THE PAST FEW HOURS...HAS RESULTED IN MODERATE TO HEAVY SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF THE NORTHERN SLOPES AND
NORTHERN COASTAL MUNICIPALITIES. THESE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL
PERSIST ACROSS THOSE AREAS FOR AT LEAST THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING HOURS.

MINOR FLOODING ARE EXPECTED ACROSS SOME OF THESE LOCATIONS...INCLUDING
ROADWAYS...HIGHWAYS...POOR DRAINAGE AREAS AND SMALL RIVER STREAMS. ALSO...THE
RISK OF MUDSLIDES REMAIN HIGH. SIMILAR WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS ABUNDANT TROPICAL MOISTURE
CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA AND COASTAL WATERS.

&&

.AVIATION...BRIEF MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN A QUICK
PASSING SHRA OR TSRA ACROSS...TJBQ AND TJMZ AT LEAST THROUGH
22Z...WITH MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE
REMAINDER OF THE LOCAL TAF SITES. WINDS WILL BE MAINLY FROM THE
SOUTHEAST AT 10 TO 15 KTS BETWEEN THE SURFACE TO NEAR 10K FEET.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  75  87  75  86 /  40  50  30  40
STT  75  85  75  84 /  40  50  40  40

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
&&

71/17

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S. VIRGIN
ISLANDS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
412 AM AST THU MAY 21 2009

AMZ710>745-PRZ001>013-221000-
SAN JUAN AND VICINITY-NORTHEAST-SOUTHEAST-EASTERN INTERIOR-
NORTH CENTRAL-CENTRAL INTERIOR-PONCE AND VICINITY-NORTHWEST-
WESTERN INTERIOR-MAYAGUEZ AND VICINITY-SOUTHWEST-CULEBRA-VIEQUES-
THE NEARSHORE AND OFF SHORE ATLANTIC AND CARIBBEAN COASTAL WATERS-
412 AM AST THU MAY 21 2009

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PUERTO RICO AND THE
ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH A LARGE DISTURBANCE NEAR HISPANIOLA MAY
TRACK EASTWARD...INCREASING THE THREAT OF HEAVY RAINS ESPECIALLY
OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF PUERTO RICO. CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY
REMAINS REGARDING THE PLACEMENT AND STRENGTH OF THIS SYSTEM OVER
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...NEVERTHELESS...THE CHANCES OF RAINFALL
ARE CURRENTLY EXPECTED TO INCREASE TOWARDS THIS WEEKEND.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

AMZ715-725-VIZ001-002-221000-
ST. THOMAS ST. JOHN ADJACENT ISLANDS-ST CROIX-
NEARSHORE ATLANTIC AND ADJACENT CARIBBEAN COASTAL WATERS-
412 AM AST THU MAY 21 2009

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS AND
THE ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...