Flash Flood Warning 11, NWS JSJ

000 
WGCA72 TJSJ 081929
FFSSJU

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
329 PM AST FRI MAY 8 2009

PRC127-081938-
/O.EXP.TJSJ.FF.W.0011.000000T0000Z-090508T1930Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
SAN JUAN PR-
329 PM AST FRI MAY 8 2009

...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING WILL EXPIRE AT 330 PM AST FOR SAN JUAN
MUNICIPALITY...

FOR THE RIO PIEDRAS NEAR HATO REY- 
     FLOOD STAGE - 15 FEET.
     AT 328 PM AST THE USGS SENSOR INDICATED THE RIVER HAD FALLEN    
     BELOW FLOOD STAGE AND WATER LEVELS ARE RECEDING IN THE SAN JUAN 
     METRO AREA. 

LAT...LON 1846 6604 1833 6605 1834 6608 1846 6607

$$

ROSA

ADDITIONAL INFORMATION CAN BE FOUND AT /USE LOWER CASE LETTERS/:
     HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SANJUAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1047 AM AST FRI MAY 8 2009

.UPDATE...MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES PREVAILED ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA THIS
MORNING. FOR THE REST OF THE DAY...AND THE AFTERNOON
HOURS...AVAILABLE MOISTURE WILL COMBINE WITH LOCAL EFFECTS...TO
PRODUCE SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
MAINLY ACROSS THE CORDILLERA CENTRAL THIS AFTERNOON. LATEST 12Z
TJSJ SOUNDING INDICATED PW VALUES OF 2.01 INCHES...WHICH INDICATED
A MOIST ATMOSPHERE MAINLY AT THE SURFACE...WHICH WILL HELP IN THE
DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON. A LITTLE ADJUSTMENT WAS
MADE TO MAX TEMP FOR THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE SAN JUAN METRO
AREA...INCREASING A COUPLE OF DEGREES...DUE TO MORE SUNSHINE..AND
LESS CLOUD COVER THIS MORNING...WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR BETTER DAYTIME
HEATING THIS AFTERNOON. NO OTHER CHANGES WERE MADE TO FORECAST
REASONING.

&&

.AVIATION...EXPECT SURFACE WINDS GENERALLY FROM THE EAST AT 10-20KTS AT
ALL TAF SITES...EXCEPT ACROSS TJMZ...WHERE VARIABLE WINDS ARE
EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECT SHRA DEVELOPMENT POSSIBLE ACROSS
EASTERN PR AND THE VI 17-22Z. IN ADDITION...ISOLATED TSRA WILL BE
POSSIBLE OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL AND WEST INTERIOR SECTIONS OF PR
AS WELL AS IN THE VICINITY OF TJMZ...TJBQ...AND TJPS AFTER 18Z.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 549 AM AST FRI MAY 8 2009/

SYNOPSIS...UPPER LEVEL TROUGHFINESS EXPECTED TO DOMINATE THE
LOCAL AREA THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY...THEN A MORE ZONAL FLOW
EXPECTED TO TAKE OVER THE CARIBBEAN FOR THE REST OF THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND. AFTERWARD...A RIDGING NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BE WITH US FOR
MUCH OF THE APPROACHING WEEK.

AT MID LEVELS...A WEAK SOUTHERLY FLOW PROJECTED TO PREVAIL ACROSS
THE LOCAL AREA FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE
WEAKENS NORTHEAST OF THE FORECAST AREA...AND AN AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS NORTH OF BAHAMAS.

AT LOW LEVELS...HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM IS CONTROLLING THE ATLANTIC
BASIN...CREATING A MODERATE TO FRESH EASTERLY WIND FLOW ACROSS THE CWA.
THIS HIGH WILL REMAIN IN PLACE FOR THE NEXT FOUR TO FIVE DAYS AT
LEAST. THEREFORE...WE WILL CONTINUE UNDER THE SAME TRADE WIND FLOW
REGIME.

ON THE OTHER HAND...THIS FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO BRING PATCHY CLOUDS
AND SHOWERS ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS FOR DAYS AND DAYS TO COME.

DISCUSSION...LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWING SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. THIS FLOW IS STREAMING MID TO
UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS ACROSS THE AREA DISCUSSION FROM CENTRAL AMERICA AND
THE NORTHERN PART OF SOUTH AMERICA. AS APPEARS ON
SATELLITE...THESE CLOUDS LOOK LIKE THEY WILL BE LINGERING AROUND
FOR ONE OR TWO DAYS. THEREFORE...VARIABLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES TO
GOVERN THE LOCAL AREA FOR THIS PERIOD.

AT LOW LEVELS...A MOIST TROPICAL AIR MASS WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH
GROUP OF CLOUDS AND SHOWERS FROM THE NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN
TOWARDS THE FORECAST AREA. THIS WET WEATHER PATTERN IS ANTICIPATED
TO PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH A SMALL BREAK PROJECTED FOR
LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. AFTERWARD...A WET PATTERN RETURNS FOR
MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.

EXPECT MODERATE TO HEAVY INTENSITY SHOWERS AND EVEN A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS TO POP ACROSS THE AREA WATERS AND OVER THE CENTRAL
INTERIOR...PARTS OF THE NORTHERN COASTS AND NORTHWEST PUERTO RICO
THIS AFTERNOON. ONCE THE EVENING...ARRIVE...MOST OF THIS ACTIVITY
SHOULD BE CALMING DOWN. HOWEVER...WITH THIS AFTERNOON SHOWER
ACTIVITY...SOME MINOR FLOODING ARE EXPECTED TO OCCUR OVER SOME
AREAS. ALSO...THE RISK OF MUDSLIDES STILL EXIST MAINLY ACROSS THOSE
AREAS AFFECTED EARLY IN THE WEEK AS SOILS ARE NEAR SATURATION STAGE.

AVIATION...PERIODS OF IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS TNCM AND
TKPK AT LEAST THROUGH 10Z DUE TO PASSING SHOWERS. PREVAILING VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS ALL OTHER THE LOCAL TAF SITES DURING THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS WITH CIGS BETWEEN 4-10 KFT...AND WINDS GENERALLY
FROM THE EAST SOUTHEAST 5 TO 15 KNOTS. HOWEVER...EXPECT INTERMITTENT
MVFR IN PASSING SHRA AT LEAST THROUGH 12Z ENROUTE BTWN EASTERN
PUERTO RICO AND THE VIRGIN ISLANDS. THEREAFTER...EXPECT SFC WNDS
GENERALLY FROM THE EAST AT 10-20KTS AT ALL TAF SITES...WITH MORE
SHRA DEVELOPMENT POSSIBLE ACROSS EASTERN PR AND THE VI 17-22Z. IN
ADDITION...ISOLATED TSRA WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL AND
WEST INTERIOR SECTIONS OF PR AS WELL AS IN THE VCNTY OF TJMZ AND TJPS
AFTER 18Z.

MARINE...WIND DRIVEN WAVES FROM THE NORTHEAST WILL BE DOMINATING
THE REGIONAL WATERS FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. FOR THE OFF SHORE
ATLANTIC WATERS...SCA IS IN EFFECT THROUGH LATE TONIGHT. SMALL
CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION ELSEWHERE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  84  75  84  75 /  50  50  50  40
STT  83  73  84  73 /  60  60  60  40

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
&&

71/64

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S. VIRGIN
ISLANDS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
614 AM AST FRI MAY 8 2009

AMZ710>745-PRZ001>013-091015-
SAN JUAN AND VICINITY-NORTHEAST-SOUTHEAST-EASTERN INTERIOR-
NORTH CENTRAL-CENTRAL INTERIOR-PONCE AND VICINITY-NORTHWEST-
WESTERN INTERIOR-MAYAGUEZ AND VICINITY-SOUTHWEST-CULEBRA-VIEQUES-
THE NEARSHORE AND OFF SHORE ATLANTIC AND CARIBBEAN COASTAL WATERS-
614 AM AST FRI MAY 8 2009

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PUERTO RICO AND THE
ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT
STILL AN ABUNDANCE OF TROPICAL MOISTURE SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION
TODAY. THIS COMBINED WITH DIURNAL AND LOCAL EFFECTS...AND A PREVAILING
EAST SOUTHEAST WIND FLOW WILL LEAD TO MODERATE TO HEAVY SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF PUERTO RICO...ESPECIALLY
OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL AND WEST SECTIONS OF THE ISLAND. THEREFORE
THE POTENTIAL FOR FLASH FLOODING AND MUDSLIDES DUE TO SATURATED
SOIL IN AREAS OF STEEP TERRAIN...REMAIN HIGH THROUGH THE EVENING
HOURS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
AT LEAST THROUGH SUNDAY...SHOWERS DEVELOPMENT WILL CONCENTRATE
MAINLY ACROSS THE WESTERN INTERIOR SECTIONS OF THE ISLAND...WHERE
MINOR FLOODING MAY OCCUR ESPECIALLY ACROSS LOW LYING AND POOR
DRAINAGE AREAS...URBAN LOCATIONS AND LOCAL STREET AND HIGHWAYS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION NOT REQUIRED AT THE MOMENT. HOWEVER...REPORTS
OF RAINFALL AMOUNTS AND FLOODING WOULD BE GREATLY APPRECIATED.

AMZ715-725-VIZ001-002-091015-
ST. THOMAS ST. JOHN ADJACENT ISLANDS-ST CROIX-
NEARSHORE ATLANTIC AND ADJACENT CARIBBEAN COASTAL WATERS-
614 AM AST FRI MAY 8 2009

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS AND
THE ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT
STILL AN ABUNDANCE OF TROPICAL MOISTURE SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION
TODAY. THIS COMBINED WITH THE PREVAILING EAST SOUTHEAST WIND FLOW
WILL BRING PERIODS OF MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY SHOWERS ACROSS PARTS
OF THE ISLANDS ESPECIALLY DURING THE MORNING HOURS. THIS WILL LEAD
TO MINOR PONDING OF WATER ON STREETS AND ROADWAYS AND POORLY DRAINED
AREAS. NO OTHER HAZARDOUS WEATHER CONDITIONS EXPECTED THEREAFTER.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
NO WEATHER HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THIS PERIOD.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED TODAY.