Flash Flood Warning 10, NWS JSJ

000 
WGCA72 TJSJ 061514
FFSSJU

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1114 AM AST WED MAY 6 2009

PRC075-113-133-061519-
/O.EXP.TJSJ.FF.W.0010.000000T0000Z-090506T1515Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
JUANA DIAZ PR-PONCE PR-SANTA ISABEL PR-
1114 AM AST WED MAY 6 2009

...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING WILL EXPIRE AT 1115 AM AST FOR SANTA
ISABEL...PONCE AND JUANA DIAZ MUNICIPALITIES...

DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED THAT THE HEAVY RAIN WHICH AFFECTED THIS AREA
HAD DISSIPATED OR MOVED AWAY. NO SIGNIFICANT ADDITIONAL RAINFALL IS 
EXPECTED ACROSS THESE AREAS AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER...EXIST THE 
POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN LATER THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THESE 
AREAS...AND NEW FLASH FLOODING COULD OCCUR. RESIDENTS AND MOTORISTS 
ACROSS THESE AREAS SHOULD HOWEVER BE ALERT TO PONDING OF WATER ON 
ROADWAYS AND ALLOW TIME FOR STREAMS...CREEKS AND RIVERS TO RETURN TO 
NORMAL LEVELS.

LAT...LON 1797 6660 1809 6660 1802 6636 1793 6638

$$

FC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
414 AM AST WED MAY 6 2009

.SYNOPSIS...EAST SOUTHEAST FLOW AROUND AN AREA OF HIGH PRES NORTH OF
30N WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AND
MAINTAIN A VERY MOIST AIR MASS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN. A
BROAD TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE CNTRL CARIBBEAN TO THE NORTH OF
HISPANIOLA WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO.

&&

.DISCUSSION...DRY MID LVL AIR WAS DETRIMENTAL TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF
CONVECTION YDAY. HOWEVER...LATEST WATER VAPOR AND MICROWAVE IMAGERY
EARLY THIS MORNING INDICATE THAT AMS CONTINUES TO MOISTEN UP WITH
PWATS NOW AOA 2.0 INCHES. MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST THAT
U/L PATTERN WILL REMAIN HIGHLY DIFFLUENT ACROSS ERN PR AND THE USVI
OVR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WITH VORTICES ROTATING AROUND THE BROAD
UPPER TROUGH TO KEEP RAIN CHANCES HIGH FOR THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS.
GIVEN THE ABNORMALLY HIGH PWAT VALUES AND EXPECTED SLOW
MOVEMENT...SHRAS WILL BE VERY EFFICIENT WITH HIGH RAINFALL RATES
PRODUCING HEAVY RAINS IN A SHORT PERIOD OF TIME. THE GREATEST RISK
FOR FLASH FLOODING REMAINS OVER ERN THIRD OF PR...VIEQUES...CULEBRA
AND THE USVI. THERE WILL LIKELY BE A SHADOW EFFECT SOMEWHERE ON THE
ISLAND AND THIS LOOKS TO BE OVER NW AND WRN PR HOWEVER CONFIDENCE IS
NOT HIGH ENOUGH THAT THEY WILL NOT EXPERIENCE ANY FLOODING SO FLASH
FLOOD WATCH WILL REMAIN AS IS.

FOR THE WEEKEND...TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AND BECOME DIFFUSE
WHICH SHOULD ACT TO DECREASE RAINFALL CVRG SOMEWHAT.
HOWEVER...MOISTURE WILL REMAIN HIGH THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH GFS
INDICATING PWAT VALUES REMAINING AOA 2.0 INCHES. SO OVERALL...WET
PATTERN IN STORE.

&&

.AVIATION...MODERATE TO HEAVY SHOWERS AND OCCASIONAL TSRA WITH GUSTY
WINDS WILL BE AFFECTING MOST OF THE LOCAL TAF SITES THROUGHOUT THE
DAY...ESPECIALLY TNCM...TKPK...TISX...TIST AND TJSJ. BY MID
AFTERNOON AND PART OF THE EVENING...MOISTURE INCREASES WITH MVFR AND
LOWER CIGS/VSBYS AT MOST SITES...WITH AFTERNOON CONVECTION AND TSRA
AFFECTING A GREAT DEAL OF THE LOCAL AREA.

&&

.MARINE...CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING/TSTMS WILL BE THE MAIN HAZARD
OVER THE WATERS OVR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. SEAS WILL ALSO REMAIN
HAZARDOUS MAINLY ACROSS THE OFFSHORE ATLC WATERS WITH SEAS OF UP TO
8 FEET.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  84  75  85  75 /  80  70  90  80
STT  83  74  85  74 /  90  90  90  80

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR CENTRAL INTERIOR-
     CULEBRA-EASTERN INTERIOR-NORTH CENTRAL-NORTHEAST-SAN JUAN
     AND VICINITY-SOUTHEAST-VIEQUES.

     FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM NOON AST TODAY THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR
     MAYAGUEZ AND VICINITY-NORTHWEST-PONCE AND VICINITY-
     SOUTHWEST-WESTERN INTERIOR.

VI...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR ST CROIX-ST.
     THOMAS/ST. JOHN/ADJACENT ISLANDS.

&&

17/64

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S. VIRGIN
ISLANDS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
523 AM AST WED MAY 6 2009

AMZ710>745-PRZ001>013-071000-
SAN JUAN AND VICINITY-NORTHEAST-SOUTHEAST-EASTERN INTERIOR-
NORTH CENTRAL-CENTRAL INTERIOR-PONCE AND VICINITY-NORTHWEST-
WESTERN INTERIOR-MAYAGUEZ AND VICINITY-SOUTHWEST-CULEBRA-VIEQUES-
THE NEARSHORE AND OFF SHORE ATLANTIC AND CARIBBEAN COASTAL WATERS-
523 AM AST WED MAY 6 2009

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PUERTO RICO AND THE
ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR TODAY THROUGH THIS EVENING.
PLEASE REFER TO HAZARD MESSAGE /FFASJU/ FOR MORE DETAILS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

VERY WET PATTERN TO CONTINUE INTO AT LEAST THURSDAY WITH THE
CONTINUED THREAT OF HEAVY RAINS AND FLASH FLOODING. GREATEST
RISK OF FLASH FLOODING WILL BE OVER THE EASTERN THIRD OF PUERTO
RICO INCLUDING VIEQUES AND CULEBRA. FLASH FLOOD WATCH MAY NEED TO
BE EXTENDED INTO THURSDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED TODAY. HOWEVER...REPORTS OF
RAINFALL AMOUNTS AND FLOODING WOULD BE GREATLY APPRECIATED.

AMZ715-725-VIZ001-002-071000-
ST. THOMAS ST. JOHN ADJACENT ISLANDS-ST CROIX-
NEARSHORE ATLANTIC AND ADJACENT CARIBBEAN COASTAL WATERS-
523 AM AST WED MAY 6 2009

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS AND
THE ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR TODAY THROUGH THIS EVENING.
PLEASE REFER TO HAZARD MESSAGE /FFASJU/ FOR MORE DETAILS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

VERY WET PATTERN TO CONTINUE INTO AT LEAST THURSDAY WITH THE
CONTINUED THREAT OF HEAVY RAINS AND FLASH FLOODING. FLASH FLOOD
WATCH MAY NEED TO BE EXTENDED INTO THURSDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED TODAY. HOWEVER...REPORTS OF
RAINFALL AMOUNTS AND FLOODING WOULD BE GREATLY APPRECIATED.