Areal Flood Warning 2, NWS JSJ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
449 PM AST SUN MAR 22 2009

.DISCUSSION...RATHER BUSY AFTERNOON WITH SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS...SOME WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AFFECTING CENTRAL
AND EASTERN INTERIOR PUERTO RICO.

MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WITH AXIS STILL TO THE WEST OF THE
LOCAL AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON...WILL CONTINUE SWINGING SLOWLY
EAST...WITH MAIN ENERGY LIFTING PAST THE LOCAL ISLANDS TONIGHT AND
MONDAY...BUT WITH LEFTOVER TROUGHINESS HANGING BACK TO THE WEST
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY AND PROBABLY BEYOND. ASSOCIATED
WEAK COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM THE SOUTHERN MONA PASSAGE TO
NORTHWEST PUERTO RICO AND THEN CONTINUING NORTHEAST ACROSS THE
ATLANTIC LATE THIS AFTERNOON...WILL CONTINUE MOVING SLOWLY
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY.

GIVEN DECENT DYNAMICS...AVAILABLE MOISTURE...SURFACE BOUNDARY AND
LOCAL EFFECTS...STILL EXPECT A GOOD DEAL OF CLOUDINESS...SHOWERS
AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS...AS FRONT CONTINUES MOVING ACROSS THE
LOCAL ISLANDS TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY AND BEST MOISTURE IS NOW
EXPECTED TO LINGER A BIT LONGER OVER THE ISLANDS THROUGH AT LEAST
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...MAINTAINING THE UNSETTLED CONDITIONS.
LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLOODING ARE STILL EXPECTED TONIGHT
INTO MONDAY AND PROBABLY TUESDAY ALSO...BUT STILL DO NOT SEE A
WIDESPREAD EVENT AT THIS POINT. FOR WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
NIGHT/THURSDAY...SHOULD REMAIN SOMEWHAT UNSETTLED...AS A SECOND
FRONTAL BOUNDARY HEADS OUR WAY...WITH DRIER WEATHER EXPECTED
FOR FRIDAY.

THE HIGH SURF ADVISORY WAS CANCELLED LATE THIS AFTERNOON...AS
BREAKING WAVES OF 10 FEET OR GREATER ARE NO LONGER EXPECTED. A NEW
ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED LATER MONDAY...AS A NEW SURGE OF NORTH
SWELLS AFFECT THE NORTHERN COASTS.

&&

.AVIATION...GENERALLY EXPECT PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE
LOCAL ISLANDS AND AT ALL LOCAL TAF SITES TONIGHT. HOWEVER...MORE
FREQUENT THAN NORMAL MVFR...AND POSSIBLY EVEN BRIEF IFR...
CONDITIONS AND MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS WILL OCCUR IN SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY OVER
THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF PUERTO RICO.

&&

.MARINE...MODERATE...LONG PERIOD NORTH NORTHEAST SWELLS WILL
CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WATERS AND THE CARIBBEAN
PASSAGES TONIGHT. A NEW SURGE OF NORTH SWELLS WILL BEGIN TO AFFECT
THESE WATERS MONDAY AND THEN LINGER THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY.
ROUGH AND HAZARDOUS SEAS CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE
REGIONAL WATERS FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AND WILL INCREASE AGAIN
ON THURSDAY ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WATERS AND THE CARIBBEAN
PASSAGES...IN LARGE...LONG PERIOD NORTH SWELLS. ALL SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES ARE DONE FOR NOW...BUT WILL GO BACK INTO EFFECT EARLY
MONDAY MORNING FOR THE LOCAL ATLANTIC OFF SHORE WATERS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  72  84  72  84 /  50  50  40  40
STT  73  82  73  82 /  30  50  40  40

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S. VIRGIN
ISLANDS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
519 AM AST SUN MAR 22 2009

AMZ710>745-PRZ001>013-230930-
SAN JUAN AND VICINITY-NORTHEAST-SOUTHEAST-EASTERN INTERIOR-
NORTH CENTRAL-CENTRAL INTERIOR-PONCE AND VICINITY-NORTHWEST-
WESTERN INTERIOR-MAYAGUEZ AND VICINITY-SOUTHWEST-CULEBRA-VIEQUES-
THE NEARSHORE AND OFF SHORE ATLANTIC AND CARIBBEAN COASTAL WATERS-
519 AM AST SUN MAR 22 2009

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PUERTO RICO AND THE
ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THE PASSAGE OF A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH AND THEN THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
ITSELF LATE TODAY INTO MONDAY...WILL INCREASE THE CHANCES OF
RAINFALL AND LOCALIZED FLOODING MAINLY ACROSS THE MUNICIPALITIES
ALONG THE CORDILLERA CENTRAL AND NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN SLOPES.

IN ADDITION...MODERATE...LONG PERIOD NORTH NORTHEAST SWELLS WILL
CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE AREA WATERS FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
DANGEROUS SURF CONDITIONS...CALLED RIP CURRENTS AND LARGE
BREAKING WAVES OF 10 TO 14 FEET AND LOCALLY HIGHER ALONG THE LOCAL
REEFS... BEACHES AND SHOALS OF THE NORTHWEST THROUGH NORTHEAST
COASTS OF THE LOCAL ISLANDS. A HIGH SURF ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR
THE NORTHWEST THROUGH NORTHEAST COASTS OF ALL OF THE LOCAL
ISLANDS THROUGH LATE THIS AFTERNOON.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

LINGERING MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY MENTIONED
ABOVE...WILL COMBINE WITH LOCAL ISLAND EFFECTS TO ENHANCE SHOWER
ACTIVITY FOR THE FIRST PART OF THE UPCOMING WEEK...WHICH MAY CAUSE
SOME MINOR FLOODING ACROSS LOCALIZED SPOTS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

REPORTS OF LARGE BREAKING WAVES AND DANGEROUS SURF WOULD BE
GREATLY APPRECIATED AS WELL AS THOSE OF MINOR FLOODING ALONG
ROADWAYS...UNDER PASSAGES AND LOW LYING AREAS.

AMZ715-725-VIZ001-002-230930-
ST. THOMAS ST. JOHN ADJACENT ISLANDS-ST CROIX-
NEARSHORE ATLANTIC AND ADJACENT CARIBBEAN COASTAL WATERS-
519 AM AST SUN MAR 22 2009

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS AND
THE ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED TODAY OR TONIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

LINGERING MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY...WILL
COMBINE WITH LOCAL ISLAND EFFECTS TO ENHANCE SHOWER ACTIVITY FOR
THE FIRST PART OF THE UPCOMING WEEK...WHICH MAY CAUSE SOME MINOR
FLOODING ACROSS LOCALIZED SPOTS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED.