Tornado Warning 41, NWS Jackson, KY

000 
WWUS53 KJKL 091926
SVSJKL

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
326 PM EDT FRI OCT 9 2009

KYC065-165-173-197-091945-
/O.CON.KJKL.TO.W.0041.000000T0000Z-091009T1945Z/
MONTGOMERY KY-MENIFEE KY-POWELL KY-ESTILL KY-
326 PM EDT FRI OCT 9 2009

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 345 PM EDT FOR EXTREME
NORTH CENTRAL ESTILL...NORTHERN POWELL...WEST CENTRAL MENIFEE AND
SOUTHEASTERN MONTGOMERY COUNTIES...

AT 325 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO
INDICATE A TORNADO.  THIS TORNADO WAS LOCATED NEAR FAGAN...OR NEAR
FRENCHBURG...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 45 MPH.

OTHER LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO
ROTHWELL AND TABOR

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

THE SAFEST PLACE TO BE DURING A TORNADO IS IN A BASEMENT. GET UNDER A
WORKBENCH OR OTHER PIECE OF STURDY FURNITURE. IF NO BASEMENT IS
AVAILABLE...SEEK SHELTER ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF THE BUILDING IN AN
INTERIOR HALLWAY OR ROOM SUCH AS A CLOSET. USE BLANKETS OR PILLOWS TO
COVER YOUR BODY AND ALWAYS STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS.

IF IN MOBILE HOMES OR VEHICLES...EVACUATE THEM AND GET INSIDE A
SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER. IF NO SHELTER IS AVAILABLE...LIE FLAT IN THE
NEAREST DITCH OR OTHER LOW SPOT AND COVER YOUR HEAD WITH YOUR HANDS.

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 600 PM EDT FRIDAY EVENING FOR
SOUTH CENTRAL KENTUCKY. A TORNADO WATCH ALSO REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL
700 PM EDT FRIDAY EVENING FOR EASTERN KENTUCKY.

TO REPORT TORNADOS...DAMAGING WINDS...LARGE HAIL OR FLOODING TO THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...CALL TOLL FREE AT...1...8 7 7...6 3 3...6
7 7 2...WHEN YOU CAN DO SO SAFELY.

&&

LAT...LON 3800 8378 3797 8363 3786 8367 3781 8398
      3785 8400
TIME...MOT...LOC 1926Z 245DEG 41KT 3793 8370

$$

GV

000 
WWUS53 KJKL 091945
SVSJKL

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
345 PM EDT FRI OCT 9 2009

KYC065-165-173-197-091955-
/O.EXP.KJKL.TO.W.0041.000000T0000Z-091009T1945Z/
MONTGOMERY KY-MENIFEE KY-POWELL KY-ESTILL KY-
345 PM EDT FRI OCT 9 2009

...THE TORNADO WARNING FOR EXTREME NORTH CENTRAL ESTILL...NORTHERN
POWELL...WEST CENTRAL MENIFEE AND SOUTHEASTERN MONTGOMERY COUNTIES
HAS EXPIRED...

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 700 PM EDT FRIDAY EVENING FOR
EASTERN KENTUCKY.

TO REPORT DAMAGE FROM SEVERE WEATHER...CALL THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE...TOLL FREE AT...1...8 7 7...6 3 3...6 7 7 2...WHEN YOU CAN
DO SO SAFELY.

LAT...LON 3800 8378 3797 8363 3786 8367 3781 8398
      3785 8400
TIME...MOT...LOC 1926Z 245DEG 41KT 3793 8369

$$

GV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
237 PM EDT FRI OCT 9 2009

.SHORT TERM.../TODAY/

A FAIR AMOUNT OF CLOUDS PERSISTS AND WILL PROBABLY KEEP TEMPS FROM
GETTING QUITE TO PREVIOUSLY FORECAST HIGHS...AND HAVE BACKED OFF
SLIGHTLY...ESPECIALLY IN THE S AND E. TRIED TO FINE TUNE THE PRECIP
FORECAST BASED ON THE 12Z RUN OF THE WRF...WITH PRECIP SPREADING
ACROSS THE AREA FROM NW TO SE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. HAVE
SOME CONCERN FOR SVR WX YET. THE MOST LIMITING FACTOR WILL BE
INSTABILITY. WINDS FIELDS REMAIN FAVORABLE...AND DRYING ALOFT IS
OCCURRING AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. BIGGEST THREAT IS WINDS...BUT WITH
HIGH STORM RELATIVE HELICITY...ROTATION IN CELLS CAN NOT BE RULED
OUT...ESPECIALLY IF ANY DISCRETE CELLS CAN MAINTAIN THEMSELVES.

THE PREVIOUS SHORT TERM FORECAST DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...

/TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/

06Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A QUASI STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY LYING
ALONG THE LOWER OHIO RIVER AND STRETCHED NORTHEAST. A DEVELOPING WARM
FRONT IS PUSHING ACROSS EAST KENTUCKY EARLY THIS MORNING AND SHOULD
HELP TO MIX THE AIR MASS BETTER TOWARD DAWN. IN THE MEANTIME...A
CENTER OF LOW PRESSURE IS DEEPENING OVER THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
AND THIS IS EXPECTED TO RIDE NORTHEAST ALONG THAT FRONT. A LONG LINE
OF THUNDERSTORMS IS BOILING ALONG THIS BOUNDARY WITH A LARGE AMOUNT OF
SHOWERS OFF TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF THE LINE. OVER EAST KENTUCKY...
THE EARLIER SCATTERED SHOWERS HAVE DRIED UP AND MOVED NORTHEAST OUT
OF THE AREA...THOUGH FAR NORTHWEST FLEMING COUNTY MAY BE BRUSHED BY A
PORTION OF THIS LINE OVER THE NEXT OUR OR SO AS IT TEMPORARILY LIFTS
NORTH. AHEAD OF THE WARM FRONT MIXING DOWN HIGHER WINDS...MANY OF THE
EASTERN VALLEYS HAVE DECOUPLED RESULTING IN TEMPERATURES DOWN INTO
THE LOWER 50S WHILE VERY MILD MID AND UPPER 60S ARE FOUND ON THE
RIDGES AND IN THE MORE OPEN TERRAIN. ASIDE FROM THE VALLEYS...
DEWPOINTS ARE IN THE LOWER 60S THROUGH THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING.
ON SATELLITE...THERE ARE CLEAR PATCHES ALSO CROSSING FAR EAST
KENTUCKY...OTHERWISE MID LEVEL CLOUDS DOMINATE.

THE MODELS AGREE ON THE LONGWAVE PATTERN THROUGH THE PERIOD AS LARGE
SCALE SOUTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES OVER THE EASTERN TWO THIRDS OF THE
NATION THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. THE BULK OF THE ENERGY IN THIS PATTERN
WILL STAY NORTH OF EAST KENTUCKY THROUGH MID DAY WHEN A SIGNIFICANT
BATCH PUSHES IN FROM THE WEST...CROSSING EAST KENTUCKY BY EARLY
EVENING. HAVE FOLLOWED THE NAM12 MOST CLOSELY ON THESE SPECIFICS
GIVEN ITS REASONABLE SOLUTION AND HIGHER RESOLUTION. THE CORE OF THE
ENERGY THEN SLIDES THROUGH EAST KENTUCKY LATER TONIGHT AND INTO
SATURDAY MORNING. THE PATTERN FLATTENS OUT A BIT IN THE WAKE OF
THIS AND AS A POTENT TROUGH ROLLS NORTH PAST THE GREAT LAKES
SATURDAY NIGHT.

SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL DEAL WITH WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS
AHEAD OF THE MAIN FRONT THROUGH MID DAY. WINDS WILL BE THE MOST
NOTABLE ASPECT AS THEY PICK UP LATER IN THE MORNING AND BECOME RATHER
GUSTY FROM THE SOUTHWEST. THESE WINDS WILL SEND TEMPERATURES UP INTO
THE 80S FOR MOST OF THE AREA...PARTICULARLY THE FAR EAST. THE WINDS
THROUGH THE LOWER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BE QUITE FAVORABLE
FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF ROTATING UPDRAFTS...SO ANY STORM THAT MANAGES
TO DEVELOP OUT AHEAD OF THE LINE WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED CLOSELY.
INSTABILITY WILL BE THE LIMITING FACTOR...THOUGH AND THE REAL SHOW
APPEARS TO BE WITH A SQUALL LINE PASSING THROUGH LATER IN THE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. FROM THIS FEATURE...SEVERE WIND GUSTS
WILL BE THE MAIN CONCERN WITH BOWING LINE SEGMENTS...THOUGH BOOK END
VORTICES AND WEAK TORNADOES WOULD BE A CONCERN AS WELL. WILL HIT THIS
HARD IN OUR WEB GRAPHICAST/WEATHER STORY AND THE HWO. SOUTHWEST WINDS
AHEAD OF AND ALONG THIS BOUNDARY WILL GUST TO BETWEEN 30 AND 35 MPH...
NECESSITATING A LAKE WIND ADVISORY THAT HAS ALREADY BEEN ISSUED FOR
10 AM THROUGH 6 PM...AND WILL BE CONTINUED. EXPECT THE SQUALL LINE
TO PASS THROUGH EAST KENTUCKY BY MID EVENING WITH SHOWERS AND
OCCASIONAL THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUING IN ITS WAKE FOR SEVERAL HOURS.
WINDS WILL TURN MORE TO THE WEST AND DIMINISH DURING THE LATE EVENING
BECOMING RELATIVELY LIGHT LATER TONIGHT. EXPECT THE STEADIER RAINS TO
CLEAR OUT OF EAST KENTUCKY AFTER MIDNIGHT FROM WEST TO EAST. OVERALL
THE RAINFALL SHOULD RANGE FROM A HALF AN INCH TO AN INCH AN A HALF
FROM THIS SYSTEM BY DAWN SATURDAY. HOWEVER...A FEW SHOWERS WILL
LINGER INTO SATURDAY MORNING...PARTICULARLY IN THE FAR EAST. PLENTY
OF LEFT BEHIND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL KEEP PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY
SKIES AROUND ON SATURDAY WITH CONTINUED WEAK CAA KEEPING
TEMPERATURES FROM CLIMBING TOO FAR INTO THE 60S...COLDEST NORTHWEST
AND WARMEST SOUTHEAST. FOR SATURDAY NIGHT...ANTICIPATE ENOUGH
CLEARING AND LIGHT WINDS TO RESULT IN A SMALL TO MODERATE RIDGE TO
VALLEY TEMPERATURE SPLIT ALONG WITH AREAS OF VALLEY FOG.

AS FOR TEMPERATURES...HAVE GONE WITH THE WARMEST VALUES FROM THE
ADJMET FOR HIGHS TODAY AND TWEAKED THEM HIGHER IN THE FAR EAST...
WHERE MORE SUNSHINE IS EXPECTED AND THE RAIN WILL ARRIVE LAST. FOR
TONIGHT AND SATURDAY...FOLLOWED THE MET NUMBERS MOST CLOSELY...WHILE
ON SATURDAY NIGHT TWEAKED THEM FOR RELATIVE TERRAIN BASED
DIFFERENCES. AS FOR POPS...ENDED UP CLOSEST TO THE NAM TIMING...
THOUGH WITH HIGHER NUMBERS...SIMILAR TO THE MAV FOR TONIGHT. THEN ON
SATURDAY THE MAV NUMBERS WERE CLOSEST FOR THOSE LINGERING MORNING
SHOWERS.

.LONG TERM.../SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/

THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH SHOWING A ZONAL PATTERN RULING
ACROSS THE CONUS THROUGH MUCH OF THE LONG TERM. TOWARDS THE END OF
THE PERIOD...THERE ARE DIFFERENCES IN TRANSITIONING TO TROUGHING IN
THE WEST. DESPITE THE DECENT AGREEMENT WITH THE BROAD
PATTERN...DETAILS DIFFER WITH TRANSITING SHORT WAVE ENERGY IN THE
LONG WAVE PATTERN. THE GFS HAS BEEN CONSISTENT WITH BRINGING A SHORT
WAVE TROUGH ALONG THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND EVENTUALLY INTO THE GREAT
LAKES...ALLOWING FOR A CLIPPER-TYPE SYSTEM TO AFFECT THE AREA MONDAY
INTO MONDAY NIGHT. THE LATEST GFS RUN HAS ALLOWED FOR MORE MOISTURE
RETURN FROM THE GULF...BRINGING HIGHER RAIN CHANCES IN THE MOS
GUIDANCE THAN THE 12Z RUN FROM YESTERDAY. THE ECMWF ON THE OTHER
HAND...ALLOWS FOR MORE DIGGING OF THIS SHORT WAVE OUT WEST...ALLOWING
FOR LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING MUCH FURTHER SOUTH AND A GOOD SHOT OF
RAIN FOR THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. FOR NOW...HAVE
LEANED MORE TOWARDS THE GFS SOLUTION GIVEN ITS CONSISTENCY...BUT WILL
MAINTAIN SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM.

THE COLD AIR INTRUSION BEHIND THIS SYSTEM ALSO REMAINS IN
QUESTION...AS THE MODELS AREA MODIFYING. WILL STAY COOLER THAN
GUIDANCE...CLOSER TO PERSISTENCE FOR NOW. THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL
THREATEN TOWARDS THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. GIVEN THE TRANSITION
IN THE LONG WAVE PATTERN...KEPT THINGS ON THE SLOWER-SIDE WITH THE
ARRIVAL TIME OF THE BEST RAIN CHANCES.

&&

.AVIATION.../18Z TO 18Z/...UPDATED

A LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED AS
IT MOVES SE INTO THE FORECAST AREA. AT THE START OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD IT EXTENDED FROM AROUND MOUNT STERLING TO FLEMINGSBURG. IT
WILL PROGRESS SE...REACHING THE VA BORDER BY AROUND 00Z. THE STORMS
WILL BRING A THREAT OF HIGH WINDS. UNTIL THIS LINE OF STORMS
ARRIVES...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. CONDITIONS WILL WORSEN
AS THE STORMS ARRIVE...WITH A POTENTIAL FOR IFR OR WORSE. A COLD
FRONT WILL FOLLOW THE STORMS THIS EVENING. SOME BRIEF IMPROVEMENT IS
POSSIBLE AFTER THE STORMS BEFORE THE COLD FRONT ARRIVES. HOWEVER...
ONCE THE FRONT GOES THROUGH...LOW CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. CEILINGS WILL FALL AT LEAST AS FAR
AS LOW END MVFR...AND POSSIBLY LOWER. THIS CHANGE IS EXPECTED TO
PROGRESS SE OVER THE FORECAST AREA BETWEEN ABOUT 00Z AND 04Z.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR KYZ044-
050>052-058>060-068-069-079-080-083>088-104-106>120.

TORNADO WATCH UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR KYZ068-079-080-083-
084.

&&

SHORT TERM...GREIF/HAL
LONG TERM....GEOGERIAN
AVIATION...GREIF

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
425 AM EDT FRI OCT 9 2009

KYZ044-050>052-058>060-068-069-079-080-083>088-104-106>120-101130-
FLEMING-MONTGOMERY-BATH-ROWAN-ESTILL-POWELL-MENIFEE-ROCKCASTLE-
JACKSON-PULASKI-LAUREL-WAYNE-MCCREARY-WHITLEY-KNOX-BELL-HARLAN-
ELLIOTT-MORGAN-JOHNSON-WOLFE-MAGOFFIN-FLOYD-LEE-BREATHITT-KNOTT-
OWSLEY-PERRY-CLAY-LESLIE-LETCHER-MARTIN-PIKE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...FLEMINGSBURG...MOUNT STERLING...
OWINGSVILLE...MOREHEAD...IRVINE...STANTON...FRENCHBURG...
MOUNT VERNON...MCKEE...SOMERSET...LONDON...MONTICELLO...
WHITLEY CITY...CORBIN...WILLIAMSBURG...BARBOURVILLE...MIDDLESBORO...
PINEVILLE...HARLAN...SANDY HOOK...WEST LIBERTY...PAINTSVILLE...
CAMPTON...SALYERSVILLE...PRESTONSBURG...BEATTYVILLE...JACKSON...
HINDMAN...BOONEVILLE...HAZARD...MANCHESTER...HYDEN...WHITESBURG...
INEZ...PIKEVILLE
425 AM EDT FRI OCT 9 2009

...LAKE WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 PM EDT
THIS EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN KENTUCKY.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE EVENING AS A STRONG COLD FRONT
PRESSES ACROSS THE AREA FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST. THERE IS A
SLIGHT RISK THAT SOME OF THE STORMS COULD BE SEVERE...WITH THE MAIN
THREAT BEING DAMAGING WINDS...HOWEVER DUE TO STRONG SHEARING IN THE
LOWER PARTS OF THE ATMOSPHERE...THE SPIN-UP OF A WEAK TORNADO CANNOT
BE RULED OUT.

WINDS WILL ALSO BE GUSTY OUTSIDE OF THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE DAYTIME
HOURS...WITH SOME GUSTS REACHING 35 MPH. THIS WILL MAKE BOATING
HAZARDOUS ON AREA LAKES DUE TO ROUGH WATER.

IN ADDITION...HEAVY TO EXCESSIVE RAINS WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM ANY TRAINING
SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

GREIF

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
308 PM EDT FRI OCT 9 2009

KYZ052-058>060-068-069-079-080-083>088-104-106>120-100715-
ROWAN-ESTILL-POWELL-MENIFEE-ROCKCASTLE-JACKSON-PULASKI-LAUREL-WAYNE-
MCCREARY-WHITLEY-KNOX-BELL-HARLAN-ELLIOTT-MORGAN-JOHNSON-WOLFE-
MAGOFFIN-FLOYD-LEE-BREATHITT-KNOTT-OWSLEY-PERRY-CLAY-LESLIE-LETCHER-
MARTIN-PIKE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...MOREHEAD...IRVINE...STANTON...FRENCHBURG...
MOUNT VERNON...MCKEE...SOMERSET...LONDON...MONTICELLO...
WHITLEY CITY...CORBIN...WILLIAMSBURG...BARBOURVILLE...MIDDLESBORO...
PINEVILLE...HARLAN...SANDY HOOK...WEST LIBERTY...PAINTSVILLE...
CAMPTON...SALYERSVILLE...PRESTONSBURG...BEATTYVILLE...JACKSON...
HINDMAN...BOONEVILLE...HAZARD...MANCHESTER...HYDEN...WHITESBURG...
INEZ...PIKEVILLE
308 PM EDT FRI OCT 9 2009

A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS AND SHOWERS ARE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA. WIND
GUSTS OF 40 TO 50 MPH ARE POSSIBLE AS THIS LINE MOVES ACROSS THE
AREA.

JJ