Tornado Warning 31, NWS Jackson, KY

000 
WWUS53 KJKL 162116
SVSJKL

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
516 PM EDT TUE JUN 16 2009

KYC121-125-147-199-203-231-235-162145-
/O.CON.KJKL.TO.W.0031.000000T0000Z-090616T2145Z/
ROCKCASTLE KY-PULASKI KY-LAUREL KY-KNOX KY-WAYNE KY-WHITLEY KY-
MCCREARY KY-
516 PM EDT TUE JUN 16 2009

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 545 PM EDT FOR
NORTHEASTERN MCCREARY...NORTHWESTERN WHITLEY...NORTHEASTERN WAYNE...
EXTREME NORTHWESTERN KNOX...WESTERN LAUREL...SOUTHERN PULASKI AND
EXTREME SOUTH CENTRAL ROCKCASTLE COUNTIES...

THIS IS A POTENTIALLY DANGEROUS STORM AND PERSONS IN THE PATH OF THE 
STORM SHOULD TAKE SHELTER IMMEDIATELY.

AT 514 PM EDT...TRAINED WEATHER SPOTTERS REPORTED A FUNNEL CLOUD IN 
THE VICINITY OF BURNSIDE. TREE DAMAGE HAS ALSO BEEN REPORTED NEAR 
MONTICELLO AND SOMERSET AREAS WITH THIS STORM.  

THIS STORM WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST AT ABOUT 50 MPH AND WILL BE 
MOUNT VICTORY BY 520 PM EDT. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 900 PM EDT 
TUESDAY EVENING FOR EASTERN KENTUCKY.

TO REPORT TORNADOS...DAMAGING WINDS...LARGE HAIL OR FLOODING TO THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...CALL TOLL FREE AT...1...8 7 7...6 3 3...6
7 7 2...WHEN YOU CAN DO SO SAFELY.

&&

LAT...LON 3725 8420 3704 8408 3686 8410 3688 8471
      3706 8475
TIME...MOT...LOC 2114Z 263DEG 44KT 3700 8448

$$

000 
WWUS53 KJKL 162127
SVSJKL

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
527 PM EDT TUE JUN 16 2009

KYC231-162136-
/O.CAN.KJKL.TO.W.0031.000000T0000Z-090616T2145Z/
WAYNE KY-
527 PM EDT TUE JUN 16 2009

...THE TORNADO WARNING FOR NORTHEASTERN WAYNE COUNTY IS CANCELLED...

THE STORM HAS MOVED OFF TO THE EAST. THUS THE TORNADO WARNING FOR 
NORTHEASTERN WAYNE COUNTY HAS BEEN CANCELLED. 

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 900 PM EDT
TUESDAY EVENING FOR EASTERN KENTUCKY.

TO REPORT DAMAGE FROM SEVERE WEATHER...CALL THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE...TOLL FREE AT...1...8 7 7...6 3 3...6 7 7 2...WHEN YOU CAN
DO SO SAFELY.

LAT...LON 3714 8451 3725 8420 3704 8408 3686 8410
      3687 8446
TIME...MOT...LOC 2126Z 262DEG 33KT 3701 8436

$$

KYC121-125-147-199-203-235-162145-
/O.CON.KJKL.TO.W.0031.000000T0000Z-090616T2145Z/
ROCKCASTLE KY-PULASKI KY-LAUREL KY-KNOX KY-WHITLEY KY-MCCREARY KY-
527 PM EDT TUE JUN 16 2009

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 545 PM EDT FOR
NORTHEASTERN MCCREARY...NORTHWESTERN WHITLEY...EXTREME NORTHWESTERN
KNOX...WESTERN LAUREL...SOUTHEASTERN PULASKI AND EXTREME SOUTH
CENTRAL ROCKCASTLE COUNTIES...

AT 526 PM EDT...TRAINED WEATHER SPOTTERS REPORTED A FUNNEL CLOUD. 
THIS TORNADO WAS LOCATED NEAR MOUNT VICTORY...OR 15 MILES EAST OF
SOMERSET...MOVING EAST AT 40 MPH.

OTHER LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO 
ROCKCASTLE SPRINGS...BALDROCK...BILLOWS...YOUNGS CREEK...HOLLY BAY 
REC. AREA...GROVE....WOOD CREEK...DORTHAE...NORTH CORBIN AND CORBIN

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 900 PM EDT
TUESDAY EVENING FOR EASTERN KENTUCKY.

TO REPORT TORNADOS...DAMAGING WINDS...LARGE HAIL OR FLOODING TO THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...CALL TOLL FREE AT...1...8 7 7...6 3 3...6
7 7 2...WHEN YOU CAN DO SO SAFELY.

&&

LAT...LON 3714 8451 3725 8420 3704 8408 3686 8410
      3687 8446
TIME...MOT...LOC 2126Z 262DEG 33KT 3701 8436

$$

000 
WWUS53 KJKL 162143
SVSJKL

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
543 PM EDT TUE JUN 16 2009

KYC121-125-147-199-203-235-162152-
/O.EXP.KJKL.TO.W.0031.000000T0000Z-090616T2145Z/
ROCKCASTLE KY-PULASKI KY-LAUREL KY-KNOX KY-WHITLEY KY-MCCREARY KY-
543 PM EDT TUE JUN 16 2009

...THE TORNADO WARNING FOR NORTHEASTERN MCCREARY...NORTHWESTERN
WHITLEY...EXTREME NORTHWESTERN KNOX...WESTERN LAUREL...SOUTHEASTERN
PULASKI AND EXTREME SOUTH CENTRAL ROCKCASTLE COUNTIES WILL EXPIRE AT
545 PM EDT...

THE STORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO HAS MOVED OFF TO THE EAST. 
HOWEVER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE 
AREA THROUGH 615 PM EDT. 

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH ALSO REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 900 PM EDT 
TUESDAY EVENING FOR EASTERN KENTUCKY.

TO REPORT DAMAGE FROM SEVERE WEATHER...CALL THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE...TOLL FREE AT...1...8 7 7...6 3 3...6 7 7 2...WHEN YOU CAN
DO SO SAFELY.

LAT...LON 3714 8451 3725 8420 3704 8408 3686 8410
      3687 8446
TIME...MOT...LOC 2142Z 262DEG 33KT 3703 8418

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
302 PM EDT TUE JUN 16 2009

.SHORT TERM.../TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...UPDATED

AN ACTIVE PERIOD IS IN STORE. UNFORTUNATELY...THE MODELS STILL ARE
NOT HANDLING CONVECTION VERY WELL...AND CONVECTION WILL BE OUR
PRIMARY ISSUE.

THE FIRST CONCERN IS THE MCS WITH HIGH WINDS MARCHING THROUGH WESTERN
KY ON ITS WAY EAST. IT IS SHOWING SOME INCLINATION TO DEVELOP FURTHER
SOUTH...BUT NOT NORTHWARD. WILL EXPECT THIS GENERAL TREND TO
CONTINUE...WITH THE MOST UNSTABLE AIR IN OUR AREA BEING IN OUR SW
COUNTIES. EXTRAPOLATING THE MOVEMENT IT SHOULD ENTER OUR SW COUNTIES
AROUND 5 PM AND MOVE EAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA OVER ABOUT A 3 HOUR
WINDOW.

PRECIP MAY LINGER FOR A WHILE BEHIND THE INITIAL LINE...BUT WILL
EXPECT A RELATIVE LULL FOR A WHILE LATER IN THE EVENING. THE
POTENTIAL FOR PRECIP WILL INCREASE AGAIN OVERNIGHT AS LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENT FLOW STRENGTHENS IN OUR ZONE OF WARM AIR ADVECTION. THIS
WILL BE DUE TO A SURFACE LOW MOVING THROUGH THE MIDWEST. CONSIDERING
THE PRECIP THREAT AS A WHOLE...LIKELY POPS APPEAR IN ORDER FOR THE
FIRST 12 HOUR PERIOD. HOWEVER...CATEGORICAL POPS MAY BE NEEDED IN A
PRE 1ST PERIOD FOR THE SQUALL LINE.

ON WEDNESDAY...THE SAME GENERAL SCENARIO CONTINUES...WITH CONVERGENT
LOW LEVEL FLOW AND WARM AIR ADVECTION. HOWEVER...THE DEEP MOISTURE
WANES AS THE AIR ALOFT WARMS SLIGHTLY AND DRIES CONSIDERABLY. THIS
SHOULD BRING AN OVERALL DECREASE IN PRECIP COVERAGE AS THE DAY GOES
BY. BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT THE COVERAGE SHOULD BE MINIMAL AND WILL GO
WITH JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE IN THE NE.

MODELS DISAGREE ON THURSDAY...WITH THE WRF INDICATING CONVECTION
DEVELOPING AS WEAK WAVES MOVE OVER ALOFT. MEANWHILE...THE GFS SHOWS
WARMING MID LEVEL TEMPS AND KEEPS US MORE CAPPED. WILL COMPROMISE ON
POPS BETWEEN MAV AND MET AND USE CHANCE VALUES OF 30-40 PERCENT.

ON THURSDAY NIGHT WE WILL MOVE FURTHER INTO THE WARM SECTOR AS THE
WARM FRONT CONTINUES TO MOVE NORTHEAST. WITH LOSS OF HEATING AS
WELL...POPS WILL DROP FURTHER...TO 20-30 PERCENT.

.LONG TERM.../FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/

CHANGES MADE TO THE EXTENDED INCLUDE THE FOLLOWING...DUE TO
UNCERTAINTY AMONGST THE VARIOUS MODELS AND MOS DATA REGARDING TIMING
OF PRECIPITATION ONSET ON FRIDAY...DECIDED TO GO WITH THE MORE
RELIABLE ECMWF MODEL SOLUTION. FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY APPEAR TO
BE THE BEST TIMES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS OVER THE WEEKEND. THE
QUESTIONS WILL BE WHAT WILL BE THE ORIENTATION OF THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY THAT TRIGGERS CONVECTION...THE TIMING OF THE BOUNDARY...AND
THE TIMING AND AMOUNT OF MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVEL JET ENERGY AND LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE THAT WILL BE AVAILABLE FOR CONVECTIVE INITIATION AND
STORM MAINTENANCE. THE GFS AND ECMWF BOTH SHOWED PRETTY JET DYNAMICS
FOR FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY MORNING. THE TIMING IN TODAYS MODELS WAS A
BIT FASTER THAN PREVIOUS RUNS SO ADJUSTED POP...SKY...AND WEATHER
GRIDS TO REFLECT THIS. ALSO MODIFIED QPF GRIDS A BIT FOR THE SAME
REASON. ONCE PRECIPITATION ENDS ON SATURDAY THE MODELS ALL AGREE
THAT SUNDAY...MONDAY...AND TUESDAY WILL ALL BE DRY WITH LIGHT WINDS
AND WARM MUGGY TEMPERATURES. THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST WAS ADJUSTED
SLIGHTLY TOWARD THE LATEST HPC AND MEXMOS VALUES...BUT NOT TO THE
EXTREMELY WARM READINGS THE MEXMOS WAS DEPICTING FOR FRIDAY. LOOKS
LIKE QUITE A FEW LOCATIONS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 80S AND LOWER 90S ON
FRIDAY WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S SATURDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION.../18Z TO 18Z/

ISOLATED SHOWERS WERE DEVELOPING SHORTLY BEFORE THE START OF THE TAF
PERIOD. THEY WILL INCREASE SOMEWHAT IN COVERAGE THIS AFTERNOON...BUT
PROBABLY NOT ENOUGH TO WARRANT INCLUSION IN TAFS INITIALLY. AN
ORGANIZED LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WAS ENTERING THE WESTERN
PORTION OF THE STATE AND MOVING EASTWARD AT THE SAME TIME. IF IT
MAINTAINS ITS MOTION AND INTEGRITY...IT WILL ARRIVE AROUND 21Z AND
PASS THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING. THE AREA MOST LIKELY TO BE AFFECTED
BY THESE STORMS AND THE AREA WITH THE GREATEST RISK OF HIGH WINDS IS
IN OUR SW COUNTIES IN THE VICINITY OF KSME AND KLOZ. WIND GUSTS OF
60 TO 70 MPH...FREQUENT LIGHTNING...AND VERY HEAVY RAIN WILL BE
LIKELY WITH THIS LINE OF STORMS AS IT PASSES THROUGH SME AND LOZ
BETWEEN 21 AND 22Z. ONCE THIS PASSES...THERE WILL STILL BE A
POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS AT TIMES THROUGH THE NIGHT. THE
THREAT WILL INCREASE AGAIN WITH TIME...WITH THE MOST LIKELY TIME FOR
ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS BEGINNING AROUND DAWN AND
LASTING INTO THE MORNING ON WEDNESDAY. ANY THUNDERSTORM COULD BRING
IFR OR WORSE CONDITIONS. OUTSIDE OF STORMS...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS
ARE FORECAST.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

SHORT TERM...HAL
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...HAL

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
416 AM EDT TUE JUN 16 2009

KYZ044-050>052-058>060-068-069-079-080-083>088-104-106>120-171115-
FLEMING-MONTGOMERY-BATH-ROWAN-ESTILL-POWELL-MENIFEE-ROCKCASTLE-
JACKSON-PULASKI-LAUREL-WAYNE-MCCREARY-WHITLEY-KNOX-BELL-HARLAN-
ELLIOTT-MORGAN-JOHNSON-WOLFE-MAGOFFIN-FLOYD-LEE-BREATHITT-KNOTT-
OWSLEY-PERRY-CLAY-LESLIE-LETCHER-MARTIN-PIKE-
416 AM EDT TUE JUN 16 2009

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN KENTUCKY.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE TODAY AND TONIGHT. SOME OF THESE
THUNDERSTORMS COULD BECOME SEVERE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH
DAMAGING WINDS BEING THE MAIN THREAT. IN ADDITION...A SATURATED
GROUND COMBINED WITH THE POTENTIAL OF HEAVY RAINFALL IN THE STRONGEST
THUNDERSTORMS COULD LEAD TO SOME LOCALIZED FLOODING PROBLEMS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR MOST LOCATIONS...MAINLY IN THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. AN
ALREADY WET GROUND FROM RECENT RAINFALL...COMBINED WITH THE POTENTIAL
FOR SEVERAL ROUNDS OF RAIN THIS WEEK COULD PRODUCE SOME LOCALIZED
FLOODING PROBLEMS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

RAY

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
237 PM EDT TUE JUN 16 2009

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0130 AM     DENSE FOG        2 SE MCANDREWS          37.55N 82.24W
06/16/2009                   PIKE               KY   EMERGENCY MNGR

            AT AROUND 1 AM...TWO INCHES OF PRECIPITATION FELL IN A
            SHORT TIME IN THE BALL FORK AND BALL BRANCH AREA. THE
            EMERGENCY MANAGER ESTIMATES THE FLOWING WATER WAS ABOUT
            18 INCHES DEEP. THIS CAUSED EXTENSIVE DAMAGE TO ROADWAYS
            AND CULVERTS.

&&

JJ

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
327 PM EDT TUE JUN 16 2009

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0130 AM     FLASH FLOOD      2 SE MCANDREWS          37.55N 82.24W
06/16/2009                   PIKE               KY   EMERGENCY MNGR

            AT AROUND 1 AM...TWO INCHES OF PRECIPITATION FELL IN A
            SHORT TIME IN THE BALL FORK AND BALL BRANCH AREA. THE
            EMERGENCY MANAGER ESTIMATES THE FLOWING WATER WAS ABOUT
            18 INCHES DEEP. THIS CAUSED EXTENSIVE DAMAGE TO ROADWAYS
            AND CULVERTS.

&&

JJ