Severe Thunderstorm Warning 91, NWS Jackson, KY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
1001 PM EDT SAT MAY 30 2009

.SHORT TERM.../THE REST OF TONIGHT/...UPDATED

AFTER A BRIEF LULL... THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOW FIRING ONCE AGAIN IN
RESPONSE TO THE APPROACH OF MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE AND COLD FRONT. UPPER
POPS A BIT FURTHER AND WILL ADVERTISE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS... ENDING BY DAWN AS THE
SHORTWAVE EXITS. WILL NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE WATCH EXTENDED BEYOND
MIDNIGHT BUT WILL HAVE TO WATCH HOW STORMS UPSTREAM HOLD UP NOW THAT
THE SUN HAS SET. ADJUSTED TEMPS UP SLIGHTLY BUT NO OTHER SUBSTANTIVE
CHANGES MADE TO INHERITED FORECAST FOR NOW...

THE PREVIOUS SHORT TERM FORECAST DISCUSSIONS FOLLOW...

/THIS EVENING/...ISSUED AT 750 PM EDT SAT MAY 30 2009

CONVECTION HAS REORIENTED ITSELF TO OUR NORTH ALONG THE WARM FRONT
AND THE JKL FORECAST AREA IS IN THE CLEAR FOR A FEW HOURS AT LEAST.
UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE AND COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP SOUTHEAST INTO THE
STATE LATER THIS EVENING AND THIS SHOULD CONTINUE TO SPAWN
ADDITIONAL STORMS THAT WILL WORK SOUTHEAST INTO THE AREA TOWARDS
MIDNIGHT. WILL KEEP THE WATCH UP FOR NOW AND MONITOR PROGRESS OF
UPSTREAM STORMS. AM A LITTLE CONCERNED THAT WE WILL NOT BE ABLE TO
MAINTAIN ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR SEVERE CONVECTION AFTER SUNSET BUT
PROGS SUGGEST OTHERWISE AT THIS TIME AT LEAST FOR OUR NORTHWEST
COUNTIES.

/THIS EVENING/...ISSUED AT 512 PM EDT SAT MAY 30 2009

COMBINATION OF WARM MOIST AIR AT THE SFC WITH A COOL 85H JET NOSING
INTO THE AREA HAS SET THE STAGE FOR POTENTIALLY SEVERE TSRA. MAIN
THREAT WILL BE FROM DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL. WEAK CAP FROM
THIS AFTERNOON HAS BEEN ERODED AND CELLS HAVE BEGUN TO FORM AS THEY
PRESS INTO THE NORTHERN HALF OF ERN KY. THE SRN HALF OF THE CWFA
COULD ALSO SEE SOME ISOLATED TSRA BUT WITH A STRONGER CAP AND LESS
WIND AT 85H...THEY SHOULD STAY BELOW SEVERE LIMITS.

/TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...ISSUED AT 248 PM EDT SAT MAY 30
2009

ISOLATED SHRA ACROSS OUR NRN COUNTIES WITH VERY LITTLE IMPACT HAVE
MOVED EAST. BNDRY STILL AVAILABLE FOR ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT...BUT
RATHER DENSE CI SHIELD HAS LIMITED HEATING IS OUR RIPEST ZONE...NRN
HALF OF THE CWFA...AND PCPN ADVECTING INTO THE AREA HAS SHOWN A LACK
OF CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY. STILL FEEL THERE IS A CHC FOR TSRA BUT WITH
THE MID LVL WARMING AND LOW LVL COOLING...WE ARE LOOKING AT
INCREASED STABILITY OVERNIGHT IN SPITE OF THE FNTL BNDRY. UPSTREAM
SHORT WAVES ARE POISED TO FOLLOW THE FNTL BNDRY THRU CNTRL KY AND
SOUTH OF ERN KY. BY MORNING ALL ACTIVITY WILL BE WEST AND SOUTH OF
THE AREA. STILL EXPECTING GOOD CLOUD COVER AND HENCE SLIGHTLY COOL
MAX TEMPS. HAVE FOLLOWED THE GFS FOR TEMPS WITH A RIDGE/VALLEY SPLIT
SHOWING UP SUNDAY NIGHT.

.LONG TERM.../MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/

NOT MANY CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST
THIS TIME AROUND. AFTER COMPARING THE LATEST SOLUTIONS OF THE
ECMWF...CANADIAN...GFS MODELS...AND HPC GUIDANCE...THE ECMWF WAS BY
FAR THE SLOW OUTLIER. THE ECMWF DOESNT BRING PRECIPITATION INTO THE
FORECAST AREA UNTIL WELL AFTER 12Z ON WEDNESDAY. THE OTHER MODELS
ARE TIMING PRECIP ONSET AT AROUND 6Z TUESDAY NIGHT. WITH SUPPORT
FROM THE CANADIAN...THE GFS SOLUTION WAS PREFERRED. THE FEW TWEAKS
MADE TO THE FORECAST WERE TO ADJUST THE POP AND TIMING OF PRECIP
ONSET AND END TOWARD THE PREVIOUS TWO RUNS OF THE GFS MODEL.
TEMPERATURES WERE ALREADY IN GOOD SHAPE...WITH A COMPROMISE BETWEEN
THE LATEST MEXMOS AND HPC NUMBERS. WILL CONTINUE WITH THE TREND OF
VERY WARM WEATHER ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY...AS THE LATEST FORECAST
SOUNDINGS AND MOS AND HPC GUIDANCE CONTINUE TO SUPPORT IT. ONCE THE
RAIN BEGINS ON WEDNESDAY...DAY TIME HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED
TO BE SEVERAL DEGREES COOLER THAN MONDAY AND TUESDAYS HIGH EACH DAY
THROUGH SATURDAY. THE REST OF THE FORECAST WAS IN GOOD SHAPE OVERALL
WITH ONLY A FEW MINOR TWEAKS MADE HERE AND THERE.

&&

.AVIATION.../00Z TO 24Z/

A COLD FRONT APPROACHING THE AREA COMBINED WITH AN UNSTABLE BOUNDARY
LAYER AND STRONGER WINDS ALOFT ADVANCING INTO THE AREA PRODUCED AN
EARLY ROUND OF FAIRLY INTENSE CONVECTION. THE MOST SUBSTANTIAL STORMS
STAYED WELL TO THE NORTH OF THE TAF SITES...HOWEVER ANOTHER ROUND OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COULD BE POSSIBLE AROUND MIDNIGHT TONIGHT.
ATTM...IT APPEARS KLOZ AND KSME SHOULD STAY MAINLY DRY AND VFR
CONDITIONS TONIGHT...EXCEPT FOR SOME MVFR/IFR FOG AROUND DAWN.
ALSO...A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA JUST AFTER DAWN
TOMORROW...CIGS COULD DROP TO MVFR WITH POST FRONTAL STRATUS DURING
THIS TIME. SKIES WILL QUICKLY CLEAR OUT AFTER THE FRONT PASSES AND
EXPECT BEAUTIFUL VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD.

FEEL THAT KJKL AND OTHER AIRPORTS FURTHER NORTH WILL HAVE THE BETTER
CHANCE AT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN AROUND MIDNIGHT TONIGHT SO
HAVE LEFT VCTS IN THE TAFS. TOWARD DAWN...EXPECT THE POSSIBILITY OF
MVFR VISIBILITIES AND A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS W/ FROPA SHORTLY
AFTER DAWN...THEN VFR THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD
THEREAFTER.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR KYZ044-
050>052-058>060-069-104-106>114-119-120.

&&

SHORT TERM...DUSTY/ABE
LONG TERM....AR
AVIATION...SCHOETTMER

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
501 PM EDT SAT MAY 30 2009

KYZ044-050>052-058>060-069-104-106>114-119-120-010015-
FLEMING-MONTGOMERY-BATH-ROWAN-ESTILL-POWELL-MENIFEE-JACKSON-ELLIOTT-
MORGAN-JOHNSON-WOLFE-MAGOFFIN-FLOYD-LEE-BREATHITT-KNOTT-OWSLEY-
MARTIN-PIKE-
501 PM EDT SAT MAY 30 2009

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 316 IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT
TONIGHT...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN KENTUCKY.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

THERE IS A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT. SOME STORMS MAY CONTAIN
DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL.

PATCHY FOG WILL DEVELOP IN THE VALLEYS AFTER MIDNIGHT AND DISSIPATE
SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE. SOME FOG COULD BE LOCALLY DENSE WITH
VISIBILITIES OF LESS THAN A HALF A MILE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.

KYZ068-079-080-083>088-115>118-010015-
ROCKCASTLE-PULASKI-LAUREL-WAYNE-MCCREARY-WHITLEY-KNOX-BELL-HARLAN-
PERRY-CLAY-LESLIE-LETCHER-
501 PM EDT SAT MAY 30 2009

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN KENTUCKY.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

THERE IS A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT. SOME STORMS MAY CONTAIN
GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL.

PATCHY FOG WILL DEVELOP IN THE VALLEYS AFTER MIDNIGHT AND DISSIPATE
SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE. SOME FOG COULD BE LOCALLY DENSE WITH
VISIBILITIES OF LESS THAN A HALF A MILE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.

DUSTY

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
951 PM EDT SAT MAY 30 2009

KYZ052-060-104-106-310230-
ROWAN-ELLIOTT-MENIFEE-MORGAN-
951 PM EDT SAT MAY 30 2009

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM TO AFFECT SOUTHERN ROWAN...SOUTHWESTERN
ELLIOTT...NORTHWESTERN MORGAN AND NORTHEASTERN MENIFEE COUNTIES
THROUGH 1030 PM EDT SATURDAY EVENING...

AT 951 PM EDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED NEAR COGSWELL...
MOVING EAST AT 30 MPH.

THIS STORM WILL BE NEAR BANGOR AROUND 1000 PM EDT...PARAGON AROUND
1005 PM EDT...ZAG AROUND 1010 PM EDT...BLAZE AROUND 1015 PM EDT...
WRIGLEY AROUND 1020 PM EDT...

RESIDENTS SHOULD EXPECT VERY HEAVY RAIN...GUSTY WINDS OF 30 TO 40
MPH...FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND SMALL HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF NICKELS IN
THESE AREAS.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT
SUNDAY MORNING FOR EASTERN KENTUCKY.

ABE