Alert archive / Kentucky / Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in 2009

Severe Thunderstorm Warning 80, NWS Jackson, KY

May 16, 20097 counties in Kentucky

NWS Jackson, KY issued this severe thunderstorm warning at May 16, 2009, 6:24 PM EDT for 7 counties in Kentucky. It was in force for 36 min. No storm report in the archive falls inside the area while it was in force.

The area

The counties it named.

The facts

Issued: May 16, 2009, 6:24 PM EDT (22:24 UTC)
Expired: May 16, 2009, 7:00 PM EDT
In force: 36 min
Issued by: NWS Jackson, KY
Area: Storm-based polygon

Counties Breathitt County, KY, Floyd County, KY, Knott County, KY, Leslie County, KY, Letcher County, KY, Perry County, KY, Pike County, KY

The radar

The Jackson,KY radar (KJKL), 41 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 22:27 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The nearest sounding before it

Greensboro/Hi Pt, NC (KGSO), launched 12:00Z, 10.4 hours before the alert went out and 308 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-p

Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.

Hodograph

The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.

Mixed-layer CAPE: 179 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN: -56 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL: 649 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear: 10 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity: -21 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity: -30 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter: 0.0
Supercell composite: 0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this severe thunderstorm warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Jackson, KY wrote its last area forecast discussion before this severe thunderstorm warning went out at May 16, 2:59 PM EDT, 3 hours 25 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, May 16, 2:59 PM EDT, 3 hours 25 minutes before

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
259 PM EDT SAT MAY 16 2009

.SHORT TERM.../TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...UPDATED

COLD FRONT IS NEAR A LEX TO GLW LINE...WITH BROKEN LINES OF
CONVECTION FILLING IN ACROSS THE AREA. SO FAR...THESE STORMS HAVE
BEEN MORE TAME COMPARED TO YESTERDAY...WITH CORES NOT AS DEEP. WIND
PROFILE HAS BEEN WANING IN THE LOW LEVELS WITH TIME ACCORDING TO THE
JKL VAD...SO THINK THAT MORE STRONG STORMS ARE A BETTER POSSIBILITY
THAN SEVERE...ALTHOUGH WOULD NOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT A SEVERE WITH
ANY MERGING THAT CAN TAKE PLACE. HYDROLOGICALLY...STILL ANTICIPATE
ANY PROBLEMS TO BE ISOLATED AS STORMS HAVE BEEN PROGRESSIVE ENOUGH
OVER A GIVEN AREA.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL WORK IN LATER THIS EVENING...WITH SKIES AT LEAST
PARTIALLY CLEARING OVERNIGHT FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST. A MUCH
COOLER AND DRIER AIR MASS WILL ADVECT IN FOR SUNDAY AND SUNDAY
NIGHT...WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 60S ON SUNDAY...AND LOWS
IN THE 35 TO 40 DEGREE RANGE SUNDAY NIGHT. SOME VALLEYS COULD SEE
SOME PATCHY FROST MONDAY MORNING. TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND INTO THE
66 TO 71 DEGREE RANGE FOR MONDAY...WITH SOME VALLEYS DIPPING BACK
DOWN INTO THE UPPER 30S MONDAY NIGHT.

.LONG TERM.../TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...UPDATED

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BE THE DOMINANT FEATURE THROUGH AT LEAST
THURSDAY. AFTER THAT TIME THERE IS UNCERTAINTY AS TO THE STRENGTH OF
A NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA AND THE
GREAT LAKES AND HOW FAR SOUTH THE EVER INCREASINGLY SHEARED AND
PROBABLY ILL DEFINED SFC COLD FRONT WILL GET. THE OTHER CONCERN IS
THE ORIGIN OF AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER FL/GULF COAST REGION WHICH
CLOSES OFF FROM THE SOUTHERN EXTENT OF A SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT PASSES
EAST OF THE AREA IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD.

A RIDGE/VALLEY TEMP SPLIT AND RATHER LARGE AT THAT WILL PROBABLY
OCCUR UNDER THE SFC AND UPPER RIDGING ON TUE NIGHT. THEREAFTER..
MOISTURE SHOULD GRADUALLY BEGIN TO RETURN AND TEMPS MODERATE AT LEAST
INTO THE LOW TO MID 80S FOR HIGHS AT LEAST WED THROUGH FRI...THOUGH
TEMPS COULD BE SUPPRESSED BY INCREASING MOISTURE CLOUDS LATE IN THE
PERIOD. DRY WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY. AT THAT
POINT EITHER THE NORTHERN STREAM BOUNDARY AND TROUGH MAY BE IN CLOSE
ENOUGH...PROXIMITY TO POSSIBLE FRONT NEARING THE OH VALLEY MAY LEAD
TO PM SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS AS THE RIDGE SHIFTS EAST...HEIGHTS
FALL AND THE UPPER SYSTEM MEANDERS TOWARD THE GULF COAST OR
SOUTHEAST. THE THREAT FOR AT LEAST DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION WILL
CONTINUE INTO SAT. FOR POPS AT THE END OF THE PERIOD...GENERALLY WENT
WITH A DIURNAL TREND INTO THE SLIGHT CHANCE RANGE. AREAS IN THE
SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS/SMOKIES WILL BE MORE PRONE TO EXPERIENCING
CONVECTION AT THE END OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION.../18Z TO 18Z/

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST
THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL CONTINUE TO FILL IN ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY. HAVE THE PROLONGED
COVERAGE AT THE TAF SITES BEGINNING AROUND 1830Z AT SME AND 19Z FOR
LOZ AND JKL. THE FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH SME AT AROUND 22Z AND AT JKL
AND LOZ AT NEAR 23Z. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST AND MAY BE A
BIT GUSTY INITIALLY ALONG AND IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THE FRONT. MVFR CIGS
WILL RAISE TO VFR LATER IN THE EVENING...WITH SKIES CLEARING BY DAWN
AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

SHORT TERM...GEOGERIAN
LONG TERM...JP
AVIATION...GEOGERIAN

Hazardous weather outlook, May 16, 4:16 PM EDT, 2 hours 8 minutes before

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In the hours before

Special weather statement, May 16, 4:32 PM EDT, 1 hour 52 minutes before

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Special weather statement, May 16, 4:46 PM EDT, 1 hour 38 minutes before

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Local storm report, May 16, 5:10 PM EDT, 1 hour 14 minutes before

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Special weather statement, May 16, 5:17 PM EDT, 1 hour 7 minutes before

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Local storm report, May 16, 5:21 PM EDT, 1 hour 3 minutes before

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Local storm report, May 16, 5:52 PM EDT, 32 minutes before

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The office that day

Everything else NWS Jackson, KY issued on the same UTC day.

Issued	Product	Office	Counties	Lasted
May 15, 9:33 PM EDT	Areal Flood Advisory	JKL	Pike	117 min
May 16, 2:25 PM EDT	Areal Flood Advisory	JKL	Pulaski, Rockcastle	3 hr
May 16, 3:59 PM EDT	Areal Flood Advisory	JKL	Breathitt, Clay, Lee, Magoffin, Owsley, Wolfe	3 hr
May 16, 4:16 PM EDT	Areal Flood Advisory	JKL	Estill	3 hr
May 16, 5:28 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	JKL	Knox, Laurel, Whitley	36 min
May 16, 5:43 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	JKL	McCreary, Whitley	47 min
May 16, 5:57 PM EDT	Areal Flood Advisory	JKL	McCreary, Whitley	3 hr
May 16, 5:58 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	JKL	McCreary, Whitley	32 min
May 16, 6:03 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	JKL	Bell, Knox, Whitley	31 min
May 16, 6:14 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	JKL	Bell, Knox, Whitley	32 min
May 16, 6:21 PM EDT	Areal Flood Advisory	JKL	Bell, Knox, McCreary, Whitley	3 hr

Nearby

Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in Kentucky, 2009 Every severe thunderstorm warning in 2009

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.