Alert archive / Kentucky / Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in 2009
Severe Thunderstorm Warning 72, NWS Jackson, KY
NWS Jackson, KY issued this severe thunderstorm warning at May 15, 2009, 4:27 PM EDT for Estill County, Jackson County, Powell County, Kentucky. It was in force for 48 min. No storm report in the archive falls inside the area while it was in force.
The area
The counties it named.
The facts
- Issued
- May 15, 2009, 4:27 PM EDT (20:27 UTC)
- Expired
- May 15, 2009, 5:15 PM EDT
- In force
- 48 min
- Issued by
- NWS Jackson, KY
- Area
- Storm-based polygon
Counties Estill County, KY, Jackson County, KY, Powell County, KY
The radar
The Jackson,KY radar (KJKL), 55 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 20:28 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.
Open the radar archive at this moment
The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.
The nearest sounding before it
Cncnati-Daytn, OH (KILN), launched 12:00Z, 8.5 hours before the alert went out and 198 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.
- Mixed-layer CAPE
- 0 J/kg
- Mixed-layer CIN
- No buoyant parcel
- Mixed-layer LCL
- 1409 m above ground
- 0-6 km bulk shear
- 34 kt
- 0-1 km storm-relative helicity
- 87 m²/s²
- 0-3 km storm-relative helicity
- 163 m²/s²
- Significant tornado parameter
- 0.0
- Supercell composite
- 0.0
What forecasters said that day
The local office's own words before this severe thunderstorm warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Jackson, KY wrote its last area forecast discussion before this severe thunderstorm warning went out at May 15, 2:59 PM EDT, 1 hour 28 minutes earlier.
Area forecast discussion, May 15, 2:59 PM EDT, 1 hour 28 minutes before
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY 259 PM EDT FRI MAY 15 2009 .SHORT TERM.../TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...UPDATED SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...SOME APPROACHING SEVERE LIMITS AT TIMES...HAVE FIRED UP IN THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS. ONCE THE HEATING WANES THIS EVENING...ACTIVITY WILL DIE OUT WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF SUPPORTIVE FORCING AVAILABLE. EXPECT SOME THINNING OF THE CLOUDS TO ALLOW FOR MORE AREAS OF FOG...WITH TEMPERATURES REMAINING IN THE BALMY LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S. COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA TOMORROW AFTERNOON INTO TOMORROW EVENING BRINGING NUMEROUS TO WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. EXPECT ANY HYDROLOGICAL PROBLEMS TO BE ISOLATED...AS THE MODELS HAVE SHOWN A MORE PROGRESSIVE SYSTEM WITH LESS OVERALL RAINFALL. SOME LINGERING SHOWERS WILL REMAIN IN THE SOUTHEAST TOWARDS DAWN. .LONG TERM.../SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...UPDATED THE MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH TUESDAY AND THEN START TO DIVERGE A BIT. THE GENERAL PATTERN IS PRETTY MUCH THE SAME...BUT THE PROBLEM COMES IN WITH WITH A WEAK UPPER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. ON TUESDAY NIGHT...THE GFS HAS THE LOW OFF OF THE HATTERAS COAST AND THE ECMWF HAS THE LOW WAY OFF TO THE NORTHEAST AT AROUND 65W. THIS FEATURE HELPS TO EXPLAIN THE DIFFERENCES IN THE POSITION OF THE POLAR FRONT. THE ECMWF DROPS THE FRONT SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY...WHILE THE GFS IS KEEPING THE FRONT TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA. OPTED TO GO WITH THE GFS AND TO KEEP THINGS DRY AT THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE END OF THE FORECAST IS VERY LOW CONFIDENCE DUE THE MODEL DIFFERENCES. FOR TEMPS...WENT WITH A BLEND OF HPC AND EXTENDED MOS. OBVIOUSLY...IF THE FRONT COMES IN LATE IN THE PERIOD..IT WILL BE MUCH COOLER. && .AVIATION.../18Z TO 18Z/ SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AND MOVE NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE REST OF THIS AFTERNOON. THE BEST CHANCE AT SEEING A DIRECT HIT FROM THESE BETWEEN 18 AND 21Z WILL BE AT SME AND LOZ AND HAVE INCLUDED TEMPO GROUPS FOR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. HAVE KEPT VCTS AT JKL WHERE COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO BE LESS THROUGH THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON. IFR FOG AND LOWER WILL ONCE AGAIN BE A CONCERN DURING THE OVERNIGHT...WITH THUNDERSTORM CHANCES INCREASING TOMORROW AFTERNOON ONCE AGAIN OUT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. && .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE. && SHORT TERM...GEOGERIAN LONG TERM...JJ AVIATION...GEOGERIAN
Hazardous weather outlook, May 15, 3:18 PM EDT, 1 hour 9 minutes before
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY 318 PM EDT FRI MAY 15 2009 KYZ044-050>052-058>060-068-069-079-080-083>088-104-106>120-161100- FLEMING-MONTGOMERY-BATH-ROWAN-ESTILL-POWELL-MENIFEE-ROCKCASTLE- JACKSON-PULASKI-LAUREL-WAYNE-MCCREARY-WHITLEY-KNOX-BELL-HARLAN- ELLIOTT-MORGAN-JOHNSON-WOLFE-MAGOFFIN-FLOYD-LEE-BREATHITT-KNOTT- OWSLEY-PERRY-CLAY-LESLIE-LETCHER-MARTIN-PIKE- 318 PM EDT FRI MAY 15 2009 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN KENTUCKY. .DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THIS EVENING. A FEW OF THESE WILL APPROACH SEVERE LIMITS WITH HAIL UP TO SIZE OF QUARTERS AND DAMAGING WINDS THE MAIN THREATS. ADDITIONALLY...ISOLATED LOCATIONS THAT SEE MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF THUNDERSTORMS PASS OVER THEM WILL EXPERIENCE MINOR NUISANCE FLOODING OF SMALL STREAMS AND CREEKS IN LOW LYING AREAS. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY EVENING. SOME OF THESE COULD BE STRONG...CONTAINING SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS. ADDITIONALLY...ISOLATED LOCATIONS THAT SEE MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF THUNDERSTORMS PASS OVER THEM WILL EXPERIENCE MINOR NUISANCE FLOODING OF SMALL STREAMS AND CREEKS IN LOW LYING AREAS. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO CALL IN ANY REPORTS OF STRONG WINDS...HAIL OF ANY SIZE...AS WELL AS HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLOODING. GEOGERIAN
In the hours before
Special weather statement, May 15, 2:52 PM EDT, 1 hour 35 minutes before
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</html>Local storm report, May 15, 2:57 PM EDT, 1 hour 30 minutes before
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
257 PM EDT FRI MAY 15 2009
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0240 PM HAIL SOMERSET 37.08N 84.61W
05/15/2009 E1.00 INCH PULASKI KY PUBLIC
QUARTER SIZE HAIL AND 6 INCHES OF FLOWING WATER OVER ROAD
ON GRAND CENTRAL BLVD. QUARTER SIZE HAIL LASTED FOR ABOUT
ONE MINUTE.
&&
JCARICOSpecial weather statement, May 15, 3:01 PM EDT, 1 hour 26 minutes before
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY 301 PM EDT FRI MAY 15 2009 KYZ068-069-079-080-084>086-116-151945- ROCKCASTLE-PULASKI-LAUREL-WHITLEY-MCCREARY-JACKSON-CLAY-KNOX- 301 PM EDT FRI MAY 15 2009 ...A CLUSTER OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS TO AFFECT THE CUMBERLAND VALLEY THROUGH 345 PM EDT FRIDAY AFTERNOON... AT 300 PM EDT...A CLUSTER OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WAS LOCATED ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM SCIENCE HILL TO BALDROCK TO LOUDEN...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 20 MPH. THE STORMS WILL BE NEAR PULASKI AROUND 305 PM EDT...WOODBINE AROUND 310 PM EDT...BOBTOWN AROUND 315 PM EDT...SWANPOND AROUND 320 PM EDT...AND WOODSTOCK AROUND 325 PM EDT. RESIDENTS SHOULD EXPECT HEAVY RAIN...WITH RAINFALL RATES OF UP TO ONE INCH PER HOUR...GUSTY WINDS OF 30 TO 40 MPH...FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND SMALL HAIL IN THESE AREAS. THE HEAVY RAIN WILL LIKELY CAUSE PONDING OF WATER ON AREA ROADWAYS. MOTORISTS ARE URGED TO DRIVE CAREFULLY. GREIF
Special weather statement, May 15, 3:16 PM EDT, 1 hour 11 minutes before
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY 316 PM EDT FRI MAY 15 2009 KYZ059-060-108-111-152000- MENIFEE-POWELL-WOLFE-LEE- 316 PM EDT FRI MAY 15 2009 ...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM TO AFFECT MENIFEE...EASTERN POWELL... WOLFE AND NORTHERN LEE COUNTIES THROUGH 400 PM EDT FRIDAY AFTERNOON... AT 316 PM EDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED NEAR ROGERS CHAPEL...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 10 MPH. THIS STORM WILL BE NEAR SEE AROUND 325 PM EDT...LOMBARD AROUND 330 PM EDT...BOWEN AROUND 335 PM EDT...JENSON AROUND 340 PM EDT...AND KOOMER RIDGE CAMPGROUND AROUND 345 PM EDT. RESIDENTS SHOULD EXPECT HEAVY RAIN...WITH RAINFALL RATES OF UP TO ONE INCH PER HOUR...GUSTY WINDS OF 30 TO 40 MPH...FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND SMALL HAIL IN THESE AREAS. THE HEAVY RAIN WILL LIKELY CAUSE PONDING OF WATER ON AREA ROADWAYS. MOTORISTS ARE URGED TO DRIVE CAREFULLY. GREIF
Special weather statement, May 15, 3:47 PM EDT, 40 minutes before
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY 347 PM EDT FRI MAY 15 2009 KYZ068-069-152030- ROCKCASTLE-JACKSON- 347 PM EDT FRI MAY 15 2009 ...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM TO AFFECT NORTHWESTERN JACKSON AND NORTHERN ROCKCASTLE COUNTIES THROUGH 430 PM EDT FRIDAY AFTERNOON... AT 347 PM EDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED NEAR HIATT...MOVING NORTH AT 10 MPH. THIS STORM WILL BE NEAR CONWAY AROUND 400 PM EDT...SNIDER AROUND 405 PM EDT...DISPUTANTA AROUND 410 PM EDT...BOONE AROUND 415 PM EDT...AND CLOVER BOTTOM AROUND 420 PM EDT. RESIDENTS SHOULD EXPECT VERY HEAVY RAIN...WITH RAINFALL RATES BETWEEN ONE AND TWO INCHES PER HOUR...GUSTY WINDS OF 40 TO 50 MPH...FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND HAIL UP TO DIME SIZE IN THESE AREAS. THE HEAVY RAIN WILL LIKELY CAUSE PONDING OF WATER ON AREA ROADWAYS. MOTORISTS ARE URGED TO DRIVE CAREFULLY. GREIF
Special weather statement, May 15, 4:08 PM EDT, 19 minutes before
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY 408 PM EDT FRI MAY 15 2009 KYZ058-068-069-114-152045- ESTILL-ROCKCASTLE-JACKSON-OWSLEY- 408 PM EDT FRI MAY 15 2009 ...A CLUSTER OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS TO AFFECT SOUTHWESTERN ESTILL...JACKSON...OWSLEY AND NORTHEASTERN ROCKCASTLE COUNTIES THROUGH 445 PM EDT FRIDAY AFTERNOON... AT 407 PM EDT...A CLUSTER OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WAS LOCATED ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM ROCKFORD TO LOAM TO ISLAND CITY...MOVING EAST AT 15 MPH. THE STORMS WILL BE NEAR TYNER AROUND 415 PM EDT...MILDRED AROUND 420 PM EDT...MORRILL AROUND 425 PM EDT...SHOP BRANCH AROUND 430 PM EDT...AND CLOVER BOTTOM AROUND 435 PM EDT. RESIDENTS SHOULD EXPECT HEAVY RAIN...WITH RAINFALL RATES OF UP TO ONE INCH PER HOUR...GUSTY WINDS OF 30 TO 40 MPH...FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND SMALL HAIL IN THESE AREAS. THE HEAVY RAIN WILL LIKELY CAUSE PONDING OF WATER ON AREA ROADWAYS AND ALSO COULD LEAD TO RENEWED SMALL STREAM FLOODING AND MUDSLIDES...MOTORISTS ARE URGED TO DRIVE CAREFULLY. GREIF
The office that day
Everything else NWS Jackson, KY issued on the same UTC day.
| Issued | Product | Office | Counties | Lasted |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 15, 1:37 PM EDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | JKL | McCreary, Pulaski, Wayne | 38 min |
| May 15, 4:12 PM EDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | JKL | Breathitt, Clay, Estill, Jackson, Lee, Owsley | 48 min |
| May 15, 4:17 PM EDT | Areal Flood Advisory | JKL | Clay, Estill, Jackson, Laurel, Lee, Owsley and 1 more | 3 hr |
| May 15, 4:43 PM EDT | Flash Flood Warning | JKL | Estill, Jackson | 92 min |
| May 15, 4:59 PM EDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | JKL | Estill, Lee, Menifee, Powell, Wolfe | 31 min |
| May 15, 5:41 PM EDT | Areal Flood Advisory | JKL | Breathitt, Lee, Magoffin, Morgan | 2 hr |
| May 15, 5:51 PM EDT | Areal Flood Advisory | JKL | Bath, Montgomery | 114 min |
| May 15, 6:49 PM EDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | JKL | Floyd, Pike | 41 min |
| May 15, 6:59 PM EDT | Areal Flood Advisory | JKL | Floyd, Pike | 2 hr |
Nearby
Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in Kentucky, 2009Every severe thunderstorm warning in 2009
Sources
The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.