Severe Thunderstorm Warning 196, NWS Jackson, KY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
319 PM EDT SAT JUL 25 2009

.SHORT TERM.../TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...UPDATED

THE MODELS ARE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. THE
CURRENT RADAR IS SHOWING A PREFRONTAL LINE OF CONVECTION MOVING
THROUGH CENTRAL KENTUCKY. THE MORE ACTIVE LINE WHICH IS ASSOCIATED
WITH THE FRONT...EXTENDS FROM SOUTHERN INDIANA TO SOUTHERN ILLINOIS.
THIS LINE IS MOVING AT ABOUT 25 MPH AND IS EXPECTED TO PICK UP TO 30
MPH VERY SOON. THIS IS THE LINE THAT WE ARE EXPECTING MOST OF THE
SEVERE WEATHER FROM. THE MODELS ARE SHOWING VERY UNSTABLE CONDITIONS
AND A LITTLE BIT OF TURNING IN THE WIND FIELDS. THE BUFR NAM SOUNDING
VALID AT 6 PM IS SHOWING A LIFTED INDEX OF MINUS 5 WITH ALMOST 1800
JOULES OF CAPE. SIMILAR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST FOR JACKSON AT 8 PM.
THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO STALL OUT OVER EASTERN KENTUCKY AND TO KEEP
THINGS WET THROUGH MONDAY.

.LONG TERM.../MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...UPDATED

GENERAL MODEL AGREEMENT CONTINUES WITH AN UNUSUALLY PERSISTENT
REINFORCING TROUGH FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR OCCURRING ACROSS THE
CENTRAL CONUS...KEEPING MAINLY UNSETTLED WEATHER FOR EASTERN
KENTUCKY. THERE ARE PLENTY OF DIFFERENCES WITHIN THE DETAILS OF THIS
PATTERN HOWEVER...ESPECIALLY WITH THE IMPACT OF CONVECTION...SO HAVE
CONTINUED TO RELY HEAVILY ON PERSISTENCE.

LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BEHIND THE DEPARTING COLD FRONT MAY
ALLOW FOR SOME ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION TO RE-FIRE ON
MONDAY...WITH DRY WEATHER EXPECTED FOR MONDAY NIGHT...AS SHORT WAVE
RIDGING ENSUES. A SERIES OF VIGOROUS SHORT WAVES WILL THEN SPIRAL
THROUGH SOUTHERN CANADA AND THE GREAT LAKES...HELPING TO REINFORCE
THE LONG WAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS. A PERSISTENT WEAK TO
MODERATE LOW LEVEL JET WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA FROM TUESDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY...MAINTAINING THE THREAT OF SCATTERED CONVECTION.
THERE CONTINUE TO BE DIFFERENCES AS TO WHERE THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE
FRONT WILL BE...SO HAVE MAINTAINED A DIURNAL INFLUENCE ON THE
CONVECTION.

&&

.AVIATION.../18Z TO 18Z/

MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF TEMPO IFR VIS AND CIG VICINITY OF THE STRONGER
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGHOUT THE ENTIRE PERIOD. WITH THE GUSTY WINDS THIS
AFTERNOON...WINDS WOULD GET PRETTY TREACHEROUS IN THE VICINITY OF
THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS. ALSO SMALL HAIL IS EXPECTED IN THE VICINITY
OF THE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH UNTIL 9 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR KYZ044-
050>052-058>060-068-069-079-080-083>088-104-106>120.

&&

SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
340 PM EDT SAT JUL 25 2009

KYZ044-050>052-058>060-068-069-079-080-083>088-104-106>120-262245-
FLEMING-MONTGOMERY-BATH-ROWAN-ESTILL-POWELL-MENIFEE-ROCKCASTLE-
JACKSON-PULASKI-LAUREL-WAYNE-MCCREARY-WHITLEY-KNOX-BELL-HARLAN-
ELLIOTT-MORGAN-JOHNSON-WOLFE-MAGOFFIN-FLOYD-LEE-BREATHITT-KNOTT-
OWSLEY-PERRY-CLAY-LESLIE-LETCHER-MARTIN-PIKE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...FLEMINGSBURG...MOUNT STERLING...
OWINGSVILLE...MOREHEAD...IRVINE...STANTON...FRENCHBURG...
MOUNT VERNON...MCKEE...SOMERSET...LONDON...MONTICELLO...
WHITLEY CITY...CORBIN...WILLIAMSBURG...BARBOURVILLE...MIDDLESBORO...
PINEVILLE...HARLAN...SANDY HOOK...WEST LIBERTY...PAINTSVILLE...
CAMPTON...SALYERSVILLE...PRESTONSBURG...BEATTYVILLE...JACKSON...
HINDMAN...BOONEVILLE...HAZARD...MANCHESTER...HYDEN...WHITESBURG...
INEZ...PIKEVILLE
340 PM EDT SAT JUL 25 2009

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 623 IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN KENTUCKY.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE GREATEST SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WILL BE
DAMAGING WINDS. HOWEVER...THE STRONGEST STORMS COULD ALSO CONTAIN ONE
INCH HAIL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY...AND ALSO
TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ASSISTANCE MAY BE NEEDED TODAY OR TONIGHT.

JJ

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