Severe Thunderstorm Warning 172, NWS Jackson, KY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
239 PM EDT THU JUN 25 2009

.SHORT TERM.../TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...UPDATED

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE ENCROACHING UPON OUR NRN COUNTIES...
GENERALLY ALONG AND NORTH OF THE MOUNTAIN PARKWAY. SFC WIND
STRUCTURE IS SHOWING A MINOR TROF WITH A CONVERGING WIND SHIFT
CREATING THE LIFT IN THE SOLAR HEATED UNSTABLE AIR. THIS ACTIVITY
SHOULD CONTINUE AND WILL WORK ITS WAY SOUTH INTO EVER RICHER AIR.
ACTIVITY SHOULD DIMINISH TOWARDS DARK AS HEATING WANES. NOT
EXPECTING THIS ACTIVITY TO MAKE IT AS FAR SOUTH AS THE TN BORDER.
ACTUAL FRONT IS NOW CROSSING LK ERIE WITH THE BETTER CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY. THIS FRONT IS FCST TO APPROACH ERN KY TONIGHT AND SHOULD
CROSS THE AREA DURING THE DAY ON FRI. PW VALUES GREATER THAN 1.5
INCHES SO STORMS COULD PRODUCE HEAVY RAIN BUT FREEZING LVL AT OR
ABOVE 15K SO GREATEST THREAT WILL BE FROM WINDS AND HEAVY RAIN.
FRONT LOOKS TO BE SLOWING SO PCPN COULD LINGER LONGER IN THE AREA
AND STORMS WILL ALSO LINGER FOR POTENTIAL HEAVY RAIN ON THEIR
PASSAGE. EXPECTING ALL ACTIVITY TO CLEAR THE STATE AROUND MIDNIGHT
FRI NITE. SLIGHTLY COOLER AND DRIER AIR TO ADVECT INTO REGION BEHIND
THE FNT. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD INTO THE AREA ON SAT TO BRING
FAIR WEATHER TO THE AREA FOR THE START OF THE WEEKEND...STILL SAT
TEMPS WILL CLIMB TO NEAR 90 AS THE SUMMER SUN SHOULD BE ON DISPLAY.

FOR TEMPS...HAVE WORKED A COMPROMISE BETWEEN NAM AND GFS.

.LONG TERM.../SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...UPDATED

MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH UPPER LEVEL PATTERN THROUGH
THE PERIOD. SHORT WAVE RIDGING GIVES WAY TO A SIGNIFICANT UPPER LEVEL
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WHICH DIGS INTO THE EASTERN CONUS VIA THE GREAT
LAKES REGION VERY EARLY IN THE PERIOD. THIS SYSTEM STALLS OUT OVER
THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES...OR UPPER OHIO VALLEY REGION AS AT ENERGY
PHASES INTO ONE RATHER LARGE CUTOFF. THE GFS WAS THE FIRST TO PICK
UP ON THIS TREND YESTERDAY. BOTTOM LINE IS THAT COUNTER CLOCKWISE
WINDS AROUND THIS LOW WILL PLACE EASTERN KENTUCKY IN A GENERAL
NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN. THIS COMBINED WITH COOLER MID LEVEL POOL OF
AIR ALOFT WILL TEND TO KEEP WEATHER OVER EASTERN KENTUCKY
UNSETTLED...ESPECIALLY WITH DIURNAL CONVECTION.

FOR SENSIBLE WEATHER...MAIN CHANGES WITH THE EXTENDED WERE TO ACCOUNT
FOR LATEST MODEL TRENDS AND THINKING. IN GENERAL TRENDED A BIT COOLER
WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS...AND TRENDED HIGHER WITH POPS WHILE ALLOWING
FOR TYPICAL DIURNAL FLAVOR. WITH POSITION OF THIS LOW STILL RELATIVELY
DISTANT...ONLY WENT WITH ISOLATED CONVECTION FOR AFTERNOON...EARLY
EVENING TIME FRAMES. SHOULD LOW RETROGRADE FURTHER TO THE
SOUTHWEST...POPS WILL NEED TO BE INCREASED AS WE COME UNDER FURTHER
INFLUENCE OF MID LEVEL COLD POOL AND STEEPER MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES...WHICH HAS BEEN THE TREND WITH THE GFS.

&&

.AVIATION.../18Z TO 18Z/

A SHORTWAVE WILL PASS BY IN THE NW FLOW ALOFT LATER TODAY WITH A SFC
COLD FRONT APPROACHING LATE IN THE PERIOD. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
CONVECTION ALREADY FORMING ALONG AND NORTH OF THE MOUNTAIN PARKWAY
AND SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. OVERALL...VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT THE TAF SITES OUTSIDE OF ANY ISOLATED
CONVECTION AND POSSIBLE MVFR CIGS LATE...TOWARDS DAWN...AS THE
CONVECTION MOISTENS THE AIR MASS FROM ABOVE.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

SHORT TERM...DUSTY
LONG TERM...RAY
AVIATION...DUSTY

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
313 PM EDT THU JUN 25 2009

KYZ044-050>052-262215-
FLEMING-MONTGOMERY-BATH-ROWAN-
313 PM EDT THU JUN 25 2009

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN KENTUCKY.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE TONIGHT. THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS DURING THIS PERIOD WITH DAMAGING WIND GUSTS BEING THE
PRIMARY THREAT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ON FRIDAY AND AGAIN FROM SATURDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE EACH
AFTERNOON ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS ARE REQUESTED TO REPORT ANY EVENTS OF DAMAGING WINDS... HAIL
OR FLASH FLOODING THIS EVENING.

KYZ058>060-068-069-079-080-083>088-104-106>120-262215-
ESTILL-POWELL-MENIFEE-ROCKCASTLE-JACKSON-PULASKI-LAUREL-WAYNE-
MCCREARY-WHITLEY-KNOX-BELL-HARLAN-ELLIOTT-MORGAN-JOHNSON-WOLFE-
MAGOFFIN-FLOYD-LEE-BREATHITT-KNOTT-OWSLEY-PERRY-CLAY-LESLIE-LETCHER-
MARTIN-PIKE-
313 PM EDT THU JUN 25 2009

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN KENTUCKY.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE TONIGHT. SOME STORMS MAY CONTAIN DAMAGING
WIND GUSTS AND SMALL HAIL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ON FRIDAY AND AGAIN FROM SATURDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE EACH
AFTERNOON ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS ARE REQUESTED TO REPORT ANY EVENTS OF DAMAGING WINDS... HAIL
OR FLASH FLOODING THIS EVENING.

AR/DUSTY

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
233 PM EDT THU JUN 25 2009

KYZ109-110-113-120-251900-
MAGOFFIN-FLOYD-PIKE-KNOTT-
233 PM EDT THU JUN 25 2009

...A CLUSTER OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS TO AFFECT EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN
MAGOFFIN AND SOUTHERN FLOYD AND EXTREME WEST CENTRAL PIKE AND
NORTHEASTERN KNOTT COUNTIES THROUGH 300 PM EDT THURSDAY AFTERNOON...

AT 233 PM EDT...A CLUSTER OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WAS LOCATED NEAR
PRINTER...MOVING SOUTH AT 20 MPH.

THIS STORM WILL BE NEAR DRIFT AROUND 240 PM EDT...MINNIE AROUND 245
PM EDT...WAYLAND AROUND 250 PM EDT...DEMO AROUND 255 PM EDT...RAVEN
AROUND 300 PM EDT...

RESIDENTS SHOULD EXPECT VERY HEAVY RAIN...WITH RAINFALL RATES OF UP
TO TWO INCHES PER HOUR...GUSTY WINDS OF 30 TO 40 MPH...AND FREQUENT
LIGHTNING IN THESE AREAS.

SCHOETTMER

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
237 PM EDT THU JUN 25 2009

KYZ107-109-110-251900-
JOHNSON-MAGOFFIN-FLOYD-
237 PM EDT THU JUN 25 2009

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM TO AFFECT SOUTHWESTERN JOHNSON AND
NORTHEASTERN MAGOFFIN AND NORTHWESTERN FLOYD COUNTIES THROUGH 300 PM
EDT THURSDAY AFTERNOON...

AT 237 PM EDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED NEAR PERLIE...
MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 15 MPH.

THIS STORM WILL BE NEAR FALCON AROUND 245 PM EDT...MASHFORK AROUND
250 PM EDT...CONLEY AROUND 255 PM EDT...RICEVILLE AROUND 300 PM
EDT...

RESIDENTS SHOULD EXPECT VERY HEAVY RAIN...WITH RAINFALL RATES OF UP
TO TWO INCHES PER HOUR...GUSTY WINDS OF 30 TO 40 MPH...FREQUENT
LIGHTNING AND SMALL HAIL IN THESE AREAS.

SCHOETTMER

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
248 PM EDT THU JUN 25 2009

KYZ052-104-106-251915-
ROWAN-ELLIOTT-MORGAN-
248 PM EDT THU JUN 25 2009

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM TO AFFECT EXTREME EAST CENTRAL ROWAN AND
WESTERN ELLIOTT AND NORTH CENTRAL MORGAN COUNTIES THROUGH 315 PM EDT
THURSDAY AFTERNOON...

AT 248 PM EDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED NEAR FANNIN
VALLEY...MOVING EAST AT 10 MPH.

THIS STORM WILL BE NEAR LITTLE SANDY AROUND 305 PM EDT...SANDY HOOK
AROUND 315 PM EDT...

RESIDENTS SHOULD EXPECT VERY HEAVY RAIN...WITH RAINFALL RATES OF UP
TO TWO INCHES PER HOUR...GUSTY WINDS OF 30 TO 40 MPH...FREQUENT
LIGHTNING AND SMALL HAIL IN THESE AREAS.

SCHOETTMER

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
319 PM EDT THU JUN 25 2009

KYZ107-109-110-112-251945-
JOHNSON-MAGOFFIN-FLOYD-BREATHITT-
319 PM EDT THU JUN 25 2009

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM TO AFFECT EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN JOHNSON AND
MAGOFFIN AND NORTHWESTERN FLOYD AND EAST CENTRAL BREATHITT COUNTIES
THROUGH 345 PM EDT THURSDAY AFTERNOON...

AT 319 PM EDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED NEAR GULLETT...
MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 25 MPH.

THIS STORM WILL BE NEAR HENDRICKS AROUND 325 PM EDT...CONLEY STATION
AROUND 330 PM EDT...CARVER AROUND 335 PM EDT...DUCO AROUND 340 PM
EDT...WALDO AROUND 345 PM EDT...

RESIDENTS SHOULD EXPECT VERY HEAVY RAIN...WITH RAINFALL RATES OF UP
TO AN INCH AND A HALF PER HOUR...GUSTY WINDS OF 30 TO 40
MPH...FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND PEA SIZE HAIL IN THESE AREAS.

SCHOETTMER

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
324 PM EDT THU JUN 25 2009

KYZ052-104-106-107-252015-
ROWAN-ELLIOTT-JOHNSON-MORGAN-
324 PM EDT THU JUN 25 2009

...A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS TO AFFECT EASTERN ROWAN AND ELLIOTT
AND NORTHEASTERN MORGAN AND EXTREME NORTHWESTERN JOHNSON COUNTIES
THROUGH 415 PM EDT THURSDAY AFTERNOON...

AT 324 PM EDT...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE
EXTENDING FROM 17 MILES NORTH OF HALDEMAN TO HALDEMAN TO HAMM...
MOVING EAST AT 15 MPH.

THE STORMS WILL BE NEAR WAGNER STORE AROUND 330 PM EDT...LYTTEN
AROUND 340 PM EDT...STEELE AROUND 345 PM EDT...ELKFORK AROUND 355 PM
EDT...STARK AROUND 400 PM EDT...

RESIDENTS SHOULD EXPECT VERY HEAVY RAIN...WITH RAINFALL RATES OF UP
TO TWO INCHES PER HOUR...GUSTY WINDS OF 40 TO 50 MPH...FREQUENT
LIGHTNING AND SMALL HAIL IN THESE AREAS.

SCHOETTMER

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
335 PM EDT THU JUN 25 2009

KYZ051-052-060-104-106-107-252000-
ROWAN-BATH-ELLIOTT-MENIFEE-JOHNSON-MORGAN-
335 PM EDT THU JUN 25 2009

...A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS TO AFFECT SOUTH CENTRAL ROWAN AND
SOUTHEASTERN BATH AND SOUTHWESTERN ELLIOTT AND NORTHERN MORGAN AND
NORTHEASTERN MENIFEE AND NORTHWESTERN JOHNSON COUNTIES THROUGH 400 PM
EDT THURSDAY AFTERNOON...

AT 335 PM EDT...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE
EXTENDING FROM SANDY HOOK TO LEISURE TO ZILPO...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT
15 MPH.

THE STORMS WILL BE NEAR PARAGON AROUND 340 PM EDT...ISONVILLE AROUND
345 PM EDT...WRIGLEY AROUND 400 PM EDT...

RESIDENTS SHOULD EXPECT VERY HEAVY RAIN...WITH RAINFALL RATES OF UP
TO ONE INCH PER HOUR...GUSTY WINDS OF 40 TO 50 MPH...FREQUENT
LIGHTNING AND SMALL HAIL IN THESE AREAS.

SCHOETTMER