Alert archive / Kentucky / Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in 2009

Severe Thunderstorm Warning 117, NWS Jackson, KY

June 3, 2009Bell County, Knox County, Whitley County, Kentucky

NWS Jackson, KY issued this severe thunderstorm warning at Jun 3, 2009, 3:14 PM EDT for Bell County, Knox County, Whitley County, Kentucky. It was in force for 23 min. No storm report in the archive falls inside the area while it was in force.

The area

The counties it named.

The facts

Issued: Jun 3, 2009, 3:14 PM EDT (19:14 UTC)
Expired: Jun 3, 2009, 3:37 PM EDT
In force: 23 min
Issued by: NWS Jackson, KY
Area: Storm-based polygon

Counties Bell County, KY, Knox County, KY, Whitley County, KY

The radar

The Knoxville radar (KMRX), 82 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 19:17 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The nearest sounding before it

Nashville Metro, TN (KBNA), launched 12:00Z, 7.2 hours before the alert went out and 253 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-p

Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.

Hodograph

The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.

Mixed-layer CAPE: 203 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN: -109 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL: 1110 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear: 17 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity: 83 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity: 77 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter: 0.0
Supercell composite: 0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this severe thunderstorm warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Jackson, KY wrote its last area forecast discussion before this severe thunderstorm warning went out at Jun 3, 2:48 PM EDT, 26 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Jun 3, 2:48 PM EDT, 26 minutes before

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
248 PM EDT WED JUN 3 2009

.SHORT TERM.../TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...UPDATED

FRONTAL BOUNDARY STILL NORTH OF THE CWFA. NUMEROUS SHRA WITH ISOLATED
TSRA CROSSING THE AREA. SOME STORMS PRODUCING HEAVY RAIN BUT THE
ATMOSPHERE SEEMS RATHER WORKED OVER FROM THE ACTIVITY ON TUE. CONCERN
WILL BE WITH THE BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER MOVING IN FROM CNTRL KY
THAT COULD ALLOW HEATING TO DESTABILIZE. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR BUT
FEEL THE SEVERE THREAT IS LOW. GREATER THREAT WILL BE FROM HEAVY RAIN
BUT THE COVERAGE OF THE TSRA IS SPARSE ENUF TO ALLOW LOCAL WATERWAYS
TO RECOVER BETWEEN ROUNDS OF PCPN. GREATEST AREA OF OF CONCERN IS THE
AREA NORTH OF THE HAL ROGERS PARKWAY WITH THE ONGOING PCPN AND THE
FRONTAL SHRA TO MOVE IN LATER THIS EVENING. HIGH LIKELY TO CAT POPS
WITH THE APPROACHING FRONT TONIGHT AND DECREASING FROM NORTH TO SOUTH
ON THU AS THE FRONT FINALLY SHIFTS EAST OF THE AREA. TEMPS HAVE BEEN
ON THE COOL SIDE TODAY WITH THE CLOUDS AND PCPN. CLOUDS TONIGHT WILL
HELP KEEP TEMPS AROUND 60 FOR MOST AND THEN PCPN AND THE PASSAGE OF
THE COLD FNT ON THU WILL ONLY ALLOW HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S NORTH AND
AROUND 70 SOUTH WHERE THER WILL BE A BETTER INFLUX OF SOUTHERLY
INFLUENCE PRIOR TO FNTL PASSAGE.

.LONG TERM.../THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...UPDATED

THE COLD FRONT WILL BE WELL SOUTH OF THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT...BUT A
MID/UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROF WILL BE POISED TO MOVE EAST ACROSS
THE TN VALLEY WITH A SURFACE WAVE MOVING EAST ALONG THE FRONT INTO
THE CAROLINAS. WITH THIS IN MIND WILL CONTINUE WITH RAIN CHANCES
THURSDAY NIGHT AND A LINGERING CHANCE IN THE EAST AND SOUTH INTO
FRIDAY MORNING...WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE IN THE FAR EAST AND FAR SOUTH
INTO FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THIS FORECAST IDEA IS SUPPORTED BY THE 09Z
SREF... 12Z GFS AND 00Z ECMWF. THE OUTLIER IS THE 12Z NAM WHICH
INDICATES A QUICKER END TO THE RAIN CHANCE FRIDAY EVENING AND THEN
THEN RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH THE MID/UPPER TROF AND SURFACE WAVE
REMAINING SOUTH AND EAST OF OUR FORECAST AREA. HAVE DECIDED TO GO
WITH THE CONSENSUS MODEL FORECAST WHICH ALSO AGREES WITH OUR
PREVIOUS FORECAST. WITH INCREASING STABILITY BEHIND THE FRONT WILL DROP
THUNDER FROM THE FORECAST DURING THE EVENING THURSDAY...AND GO WITH
JUST SHOWER CHANCES DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND ON FRIDAY.

DRY WEATHER THEN LOOKS TO BE IN STORE FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AS
RIDGING BUILDS INTO THE AREA AND HEIGHTS RISE. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WILL INITIALLY BE STATIONARY TO OUR NORTH ACROSS OHIO. AS SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST AND LOW PRESSURE MOVES
NORTHEAST FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS AN INCREASINGLY MOIST FLOW OF AIR
WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA. WILL REINTRODUCE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH THIS FOR MONDAY. AS THE LOW PRESSURE MOVES
NORTHEAST THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL INITIALLY SHIFT NORTH BUT THEN
SWING BACK SOUTH AND INTO KENTUCKY. THERE IS SOME DISAGREEMENT ON
THE DETAILS OF THE FRONTAL POSITION AND WHETHER IT LINGERS IN OUR
AREA. WITH CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY HAVE DECIDED TO CARRY A CHANCE
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST FROM MONDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION.../18Z TO 18Z/

THE THREAT FOR CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE TODAY AS THE COLD FRONT
CONTINUES TO SAG SOUTH OF THE OHIO RIVER. SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS
ALONG/IN ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT COULD BECOME SEVERE. CONFIDENCE IN
TIMING WAS NOT ALL THAT HIGH AS THE MODELS ARE ADVERTISING THAT THE
FRONT MAY STALL JUST SOUTH OF THE RIVER UNTIL A TRAILING LOW PRESSURE
AREA CAN MOVE OUT OF THE MEMPHIS AREA AND DRAG THE FRONT THRU THE
AREA TONIGHT...SO DID NOT INCLUDE STRONG TO SEVERE WIND GUSTS IN THE
FORECAST AT THIS POINT. WINDS WILL BECOME MORE NORTH TO NORTHEAST
WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE...AND CIGS SHOULD LOWER TO MVFR ON AVERAGE
AFTER THE FROPA.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

SHORT TERM...DUSTY
LONG TERM...SBH
AVIATION...DUSTY

Hazardous weather outlook, Jun 3, 4:12 AM EDT, 11 hours 2 minutes before

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In the hours before

Special weather statement, Jun 3, 10:44 AM EDT, 4 hours 30 minutes before

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Special weather statement, Jun 3, 11:08 AM EDT, 4 hours 6 minutes before

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Special weather statement, Jun 3, 11:22 AM EDT, 3 hours 52 minutes before

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Special weather statement, Jun 3, 1:05 PM EDT, 2 hours 9 minutes before

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Special weather statement, Jun 3, 2:03 PM EDT, 1 hour 11 minutes before

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Special weather statement, Jun 3, 3:08 PM EDT, 6 minutes before

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The office that day

Everything else NWS Jackson, KY issued on the same UTC day.

Issued	Product	Office	Counties	Lasted
Jun 3, 11:52 AM EDT	Areal Flood Advisory	JKL	Bath, Elliott, Fleming, Rowan	4 hr
Jun 3, 3:40 PM EDT	Areal Flood Advisory	JKL	Bell, Harlan, Knox, Leslie, Letcher, McCreary and 2 more	4 hr
Jun 3, 4:39 PM EDT	Flash Flood Warning	JKL	McCreary	3 hr

Nearby

Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in Kentucky, 2009 Every severe thunderstorm warning in 2009

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.