Severe Thunderstorm Warning 116, NWS Jackson, KY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
305 PM EDT TUE JUN 2 2009

.SHORT TERM.../TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...UPDATED

THE GFS AND SREF MODELS ARE BOTH IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT REGARDING
THE TIMING OF PRECIPITATION SET IN THE SHORT TERM. SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND STORMS HAVE BEEN DUMPING HEAVY RAIN AND HAIL ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
THIRD OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON WITH TWO WARNINGS ISSUED SO
FAR. THIS ACTIVITY IS BEING DRIVEN PRIMARILY BY DAYTIME HEATING AND
SHOULD WEAKEN AND DISSIPATE QUICKLY AS SUNSET APPROACHES. A PRE FIRST
PERIOD WILL BE INCLUDED IN THE 4 PM FORECAST PACKAGE TO DEAL WITH THE
ONGOING SHOWERS AND STORMS. AFTER THIS ACTIVITY ENDS...THE REMAINDER
OF THE NIGHT SHOULD BE QUIET. THE NEXT GOOD CHANCE OF RAIN IS
EXPECTED TO START BY 15Z TOMORROW...AS A SLUGGISH COLD FRONT BEGINS
TO DRIFT SOUTHWARD. THE HIGHEST PROBABILITY SHOWERS AND STORMS
WILL OCCUR LATE IN THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY WHEN INSTABILITY IS MAXIMIZED
ALONG THE FRONT. MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE THE PRIMARY
THREAT WITH THE STORMS THAT OCCUR TOMORROW WITH GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL
HAIL ALSO POSSIBLE. TEMPERATURES WERE TWEAKED ONLY SLIGHTLY TOWARD
THE MORE PROFICIENT METMOS TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. MADE A
FEW MODIFICATIONS TO SKY COVER...QPF...AND WEATHER GRIDS BASED ON
MINOR CHANGES MADE TO POP FORECAST. ALL IN ALL THE FORECAST WAS NOT
CHANGED ALL THAT MUCH OTHER THAN THE ADDITION OF A PRE FIRST PERIOD.
THE NEW ZONE FORECAST PACKAGE WILL BE ISSUED SHORTLY.

.LONG TERM.../THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...UPDATED

EXTENDED AFD WILL BE ISSUED ONCE THE WEATHER CALMS DOWN A BIT.

&&

.AVIATION.../18Z TO 18Z/

HIGH PRESSURE WILL ALLOW VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL AT ALL TAF SITES
THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD FOR THE MOST PART. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE FIRED THIS AFTERNOON IN THE VICINITY
OF ALL THREE TAF SITES...WITH LOZ AND SME HAVING NOT BEEN DIRECTLY
IMPACTED. JKL COULD SEE A BRIEF PERIOD OF MODERATE RAINFALL...GUSTY
WINDS...AND SOME LIGHTNING WITH A WEAKENING STORM AS IT MOVES ACROSS
THE AIRPORT BETWEEN 1830 AND 19Z TODAY. LOZ COULD EXPERIENCE A SHOWER
OR STORM BY 20Z THIS AFTERNOON WITH HEAVY RAINFALL...SMALL
HAIL..GUSTY WINDS AND LIGHTNING. IT APPEARS ONCE THE SUN BEGINS TO GO
DOWN THAT THESE SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL WEAKEN AND EVENTUALLY
DISSIPATE AS THEY LOSE THE HEATING OF THE DAY. AFTER THAT SCATTERED LOW
CLOUDS WITH CIGS AROUND 7K WILL DOMINATE UNTIL AROUND 2Z...AFTER
WHICH A BROKEN DECK OF HIGH CLOUDS...ASSOCIATED WITH A DECAYING
THUNDERSTORM CLUSTER CURRENTLY OVER MISSOURI AND ILLINOIS...WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE TAF SITES.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

SHORT TERM...AR
LONG TERM...DUSTY
AVIATION...AR

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
339 PM EDT TUE JUN 2 2009

KYZ044-050>052-058>060-068-069-079-080-083>088-104-106>120-032245-
FLEMING-MONTGOMERY-BATH-ROWAN-ESTILL-POWELL-MENIFEE-ROCKCASTLE-
JACKSON-PULASKI-LAUREL-WAYNE-MCCREARY-WHITLEY-KNOX-BELL-HARLAN-
ELLIOTT-MORGAN-JOHNSON-WOLFE-MAGOFFIN-FLOYD-LEE-BREATHITT-KNOTT-
OWSLEY-PERRY-CLAY-LESLIE-LETCHER-MARTIN-PIKE-
339 PM EDT TUE JUN 2 2009

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN KENTUCKY.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

CLUSTERS OF THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
SOME OF THE STORMS COULD BE SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL...FREQUENT
LIGHTNING AND HEAVY RAINFALL THAT COULD CAUSE FLASH FLOODING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH THE OUTLOOK AREA. AN
ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CONTAINING DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE
HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE.

THUNDERSTORMS ARE AGAIN POSSIBLE ON FRIDAY AND MONDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY EVENING.

ABE/AR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
517 PM EDT TUE JUN 02 2009

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0515 PM     HAIL             HARDWICK                37.78N 83.94W
06/02/2009  E1.00 INCH       POWELL             KY   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

JMACZKO

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