Frost Advisory 2, NWS Jackson, KY

Bath County, KY, Bell County, KY, Breathitt County, KY, Clay County, KY, Elliott County, KY, Estill County, KY, Fleming County, KY, Floyd County, KY, Harlan County, KY, Jackson County, KY, Johnson County, KY, Knott County, KY, Knox County, KY, Laurel County, KY, Lee County, KY, Leslie County, KY, Letcher County, KY, Magoffin County, KY, Martin County, KY, McCreary County, KY, Menifee County, KY, Montgomery County, KY, Morgan County, KY, Owsley County, KY, Perry County, KY, Pike County, KY, Powell County, KY, Pulaski County, KY, Rockcastle County, KY, Rowan County, KY, Wayne County, KY, Whitley County, KY, Wolfe County, KY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
350 PM EDT FRI APR 10 2009

.SHORT TERM.../TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...UPDATED

19Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS THE COMPLEX LOW AND FRONTAL STRUCTURE THROUGH
THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY. THIS IS SPAWNING ALL SORTS OF SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS AND POTENTIAL TORNADOES THROUGH KENTUCKY...JUST NOW
AFFECTING THE WESTERN PORTION OF OUR CWA. PLENTY OF INSTABILITY...
THANKS TO THE EARLIER BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS...WILL COMBINE WITH THE
VERTICAL DIRECTIONAL WIND SHEAR TO CONTINUE THE TORNADO AND SEVERE
THREAT WELL INTO THE EVENING. ACCORDINGLY...THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE HAS ISSUED A TORNADO WATCH THROUGH 10 PM EDT. AN ADDED
THREAT WILL BE TRAINING OF SUPERCELLS AND HEAVY TO EXCESSIVE
RAINFALL...ESPECIALLY CONSIDERING THE COOLING CLOUD TOPS AND THE
CONVERGENCE OF WELL ORGANIZED STORM CLUSTERS. AS A RESULT...WILL
ISSUE A FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH MIDNIGHT EDT. THE THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO SETTLE DOWN AND COME TO AN END LATER THIS EVENING FROM
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST WITH SHOWERS ENDING A BIT AFTER THE STORMS DO.

THE CLOUDS WILL EVENTUALLY BREAK UP DURING THE DAY SATURDAY WITH
RETURNING SUNSHINE AND DRIER CONDITIONS...BUT COOLER AS WELL. CLEAR
SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS SATURDAY NIGHT WILL LEAD TO A CHILL NIGHT WITH
FROST A POSSIBILITY AND EVEN A COUPLE OF HOURS OF FREEZING POSSIBLE
IN THE DEEPEST VALLEYS BY SUNDAY MORNING. FOR NOW WILL LEAVE IT AS A
MENTION IN THE ZONES AND HWO AS WE HAVE ENOUGH GOING ON THIS
EVENING.

.LONG TERM.../SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...UPDATED

MODELS (GFS/CANADIAN/ECMWF) SHOW DECENT AGREEMENT FOR THE NEXT
SYSTEM DUE TO ARRIVE IN EAST KY EARLY MON THOUGH NOGAPS IS A LITTLE
SLOWER. 12Z OPERATIONAL GFS PROGRESSION FOR THE SYSTEM REMAINS
SLIGHTLY ON THE SLOW SIDE RELATIVE TO MOST OF ITS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS.
BUT THIS IS PROBABLY THE BETTER CHOICE AS THE DOWNSTREAM RIDGE WILL
HOLD IT BACK AND KEEP IT A CLOSED LOW A BIT LONGER THAN OPENING IT
TO A WAVE. THE 12Z RUN SPREAD QPF THROUGH THE JKL CWA LATE SUN NIGHT
(FASTER THAN 00Z AND 06Z RUNS) SO DID NOT BACK OFF ON POPS THAT
NIGHT. THE LOW CENTER BECOMES ALMOST VERTICALLY STACKED AND
PROGRESSES EASTWARD VERY SLOWLY RESULTING IN A PROLONGED CHANCE OF
SHOWERS... POSSIBLY INTO WED. THE NEXT SYSTEM TO FOLLOW BY LATE NEXT
WEEK SHOWS WIDE DISPERSION IN SOLUTIONS. ECMWF IS MUCH SLOWER AND
MORE AMPLIFIED BUT WILL NOT FAVOR IT OVER GFS THIS FAR OUT. VERY
LITTLE ADJUSTMENT REQUIRED FOR TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION.../18Z TO 18Z/

PARTIALLY CLEAR SKIES WILL GIVE WAY TO DEVELOPING THUNDERSTORMS LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING. WITH THE SCATTERED CONVECTION
CIGS AND VIS WILL FALL INTO THE MVFR CATEGORY. MORE ORGANIZED...
LINEAR...STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO CROSS THE
AREA FROM 21 THROUGH 24Z. HAVE TIMED THESE THROUGH WITH A PREVAILING
AND TEMPO GROUP...EXPECTING VIS TO FALL TO IFR DURING THE WORST OF
THEM AS WELL AS VARIABLE WIND GUSTS OF 30 35 KTS. FOLLOWING THE
STORMS THE SHOWERS WILL END LATE THIS EVENING WITH CIGS REMAINING
DOWN IN THE MVFR CATEGORY THROUGH 12 TO 14Z BEFORE SCATTERING OUT.
WINDS WILL BE BREEZY FROM THE SOUTHEAST INITIALLY AND THEN GRADUALLY
PICK UP AND SWITCH TO THE SOUTHWEST AHEAD OF THE MAIN STORMS
ASSOCIATED WITH FROPA. FOLLOWING THIS...THEY SLOW AND SWING TO THE
NORTHWEST...AND LATER NORTH DURING THE DAY SATURDAY.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TORNADO WATCH UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR KYZ044-050>052-
058>060-068-069-079-080-083>088-104-106>120.

FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR KYZ044-050>052-
058>060-068-069-079-080-083>088-104-106>120.

&&

SHORT TERM...GREIF
LONG TERM...GV
AVIATION...GREIF

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