Flash Flood Warning 64, NWS Jackson, KY

000 
WGUS73 KJKL 260215
FFSJKL

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
1015 PM EDT FRI SEP 25 2009

KYC203-260223-
/O.CAN.KJKL.FF.W.0064.000000T0000Z-090926T0330Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
ROCKCASTLE KY-
1015 PM EDT FRI SEP 25 2009

...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING HAS BEEN CANCELLED FOR CENTRAL ROCKCASTLE
COUNTY...

REPORTS FROM THE PUBLIC HAVE INDICATED THAT RISES ALONG ROUNDSTONE 
CREEK HAVE SLOWED NEAR THE ORLANDO AREA. WHILE THE FLASH FLOOD 
WARNING IS CANCELLED...AN AREAL FLOOD WARNING HAS BEEN 
ISSUED...WHICH INCLUDES THE ORLANDO AREA. THE AREAL FLOOD WARNING 
WILL EXPIRE AT 8 AM SATURDAY MORNING.

TO REPORT ANY FLOODING TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...CALL TOLL
FREE AT...1...8 7 7...6 3 3...6 7 7 2...WHEN YOU CAN DO SO SAFELY.

LAT...LON 3739 8426 3736 8423 3735 8426 3737 8428
      3738 8428

$$

GEOGERIAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
742 PM EDT FRI SEP 25 2009

.SHORT TERM.../TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/

SHRA/TSRA HAVE BEGUN TO OVER SPREAD OUR SRN COUNTIES. HEAVIEST
CONCENTRATION WAS ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE HAL ROGERS PARKWAY BUT THE
TREND IS NORTH. WITH ADDITIONAL ACTIVITY IN TN EXPECT TREND TO
CONTINUE. CLOUD COVER HAS RESTRICTED FOR MOST OF THE CWFA...HOWEVER
THE CELLULAR NATURE OF THE CLOUDS IN THE SOUTH HAVE ALLOWED THOSE
LOCATIONS TO EXCEED THEIR FCST HIGHS BY A COUPLE DEG. WITH THE
SETTING SUN THE CLOUDS SHOULD RETURN TO STRAUS AND COVERAGE WILL
INCREASE TO BLANKET OVC. THIS WILL HOLD LOW TEMPS UP AND EVEN WITH
LIKELY POPS TONIGHT AND NEARLY 100 POP ON SAT WILL KEEP TEMPS A DEG
OR TWO BETWEEN THE MOS MAX/MIN RANGE. MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE
PASSAGE OF THE COLD FNT SAT AFTERNOON/EVENING AND THE CESSATION OF
THE HEAVY PCPN. COULD BE A FEW LINGERING SPRINKLES BEHIND THE FNT BUT
THE HEAVY PCPN WILL END BY MIDNIGHT SAT NIGHT. WILL UPDATE THE FLASH
FLOOD WATCH THIS EVENING TO REFRESH THE WORDING BUT THE TIMING STILL
LOOKS GOOD. ACCUMULATED PCPN FCST TO RANCE FROM 3-4 INCHES IN THE KY
AND CUMBERLAND RIVER HEADWATERS DOWN TO 1.5 TO 2 TOWARDS THE I-75 AND
I-64 CORRIDORS.

.LONG TERM.../SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/

MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT UNTIL THE END OF THE PERIOD. UPPER
LEVEL LOW PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN TIER...MINNESOTA PIVOTS DOWN
INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. IN RESPONSE...CORRESPONDING SFC FRONTAL
BOUNDARY SWEEPS ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY MORNING. MODELS INDICATE A
LIMITED AMOUNT OF MOISTURE WITH THIS FAST MOVING BOUNDARY. BUT WITH
SUCH A POTENT SYSTEM...GOOD BOUNDARY LAYER DYNAMICS...COULD NOT RULE
OUT SOME ISOLD TO SCT SHOWERS ALONG THE FRONT ITSELF. THEREFORE...
REINTRODUCED A SLIGHT POP INTO THE FORECAST BY DAWN MONDAY. A MUCH
COOLER...DRIER AIR MASS FILLS INTO EASTERN KENTUCKY BEHIND THE
DEPARTING COLD FRONT FOR A TRUE TASTE OF SOME FALL LIKE WEATHER. THE
REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST REMAINS DRY WITH A VERY GRADUAL
MODERATION IN TEMPS. WITH THE OPERATIONAL GFS SO MUCH FASTER WITH
THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN...AND A SECOND FRONTAL SYSTEM AT THE END OF THE
PERIOD AS COMPARED TO THE ECMWF AND ENSEMBLE MEAN...DECIDED TO SLOW
THE REBOUND OF TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEK VERSUS MOS GUIDANCE.

&&

.AVIATION.../00Z TO 24Z/...UPDATED

NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH IFR CONDITIONS WILL GENERALLY
WEAKEN INTO THE EVENING HOURS...HOWEVER A RESURGENCE OF WIDESPREAD
PRECIPITATION AND IFR CONDITIONS WILL MOVE BACK IN BEFORE DAWN AS A
COLD FRONT AND AN ASSOCIATED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM NEAR THE AREA. RAIN
WILL BE HEAVY AT TIMES DURING THE DAY.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING
FOR KYZ044-050>052-058>060-068-069-079-080-083>088-104-106>120.

&&

SHORT TERM...DUSTY
LONG TERM....RAY
AVIATION...GEOGERIAN

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
346 PM EDT FRI SEP 25 2009

KYZ044-050>052-058>060-068-069-079-080-083>088-104-106>120-262300-
FLEMING-MONTGOMERY-BATH-ROWAN-ESTILL-POWELL-MENIFEE-ROCKCASTLE-
JACKSON-PULASKI-LAUREL-WAYNE-MCCREARY-WHITLEY-KNOX-BELL-HARLAN-
ELLIOTT-MORGAN-JOHNSON-WOLFE-MAGOFFIN-FLOYD-LEE-BREATHITT-KNOTT-
OWSLEY-PERRY-CLAY-LESLIE-LETCHER-MARTIN-PIKE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...FLEMINGSBURG...MOUNT STERLING...
OWINGSVILLE...MOREHEAD...IRVINE...STANTON...FRENCHBURG...
MOUNT VERNON...MCKEE...SOMERSET...LONDON...MONTICELLO...
WHITLEY CITY...CORBIN...WILLIAMSBURG...BARBOURVILLE...MIDDLESBORO...
PINEVILLE...HARLAN...SANDY HOOK...WEST LIBERTY...PAINTSVILLE...
CAMPTON...SALYERSVILLE...PRESTONSBURG...BEATTYVILLE...JACKSON...
HINDMAN...BOONEVILLE...HAZARD...MANCHESTER...HYDEN...WHITESBURG...
INEZ...PIKEVILLE
346 PM EDT FRI SEP 25 2009

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH
SATURDAY EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN KENTUCKY.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE TONIGHT. LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN IS ALSO
POSSIBLE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. HEAVY RAIN IS
POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY AND SATURDAY EVENING AND MAY RESULT IN SOME
LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING. RAINFALL FROM THIS EXTENDED RAIN EVENT AND
THE CURRENTLY SATURATED GROUND WILL CAUSE AREA RIVERS TO RISE BUT THEY
SHOULD STAY BELOW FLOOD STAGE.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO CALL IN REPORTS OF RAINFALL GREATER THAN
ONE INCH AND ANY OBSERVATIONS OF LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING.

JJ/DUSTY