Flash Flood Warning 61, NWS Jackson, KY

000 
WGUS73 KJKL 182336
FFSJKL

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
736 PM EDT FRI SEP 18 2009

KYC199-190045-
/O.CON.KJKL.FF.W.0061.000000T0000Z-090919T0045Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
PULASKI KY-
736 PM EDT FRI SEP 18 2009

...A FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 845 PM EDT FOR
CENTRAL PULASKI COUNTY...

AT 733 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO 
INDICATE A THUNDERSTORM CONTAINING RAINFALL HEAVY ENOUGH TO PRODUCE 
FLASH FLOODING OVER THE WARNED AREA.

CREEKS AND STREAMS IN LOW LYING AREAS WILL BE THE MOST SUSCEPTIBLE 
TO FLASH FLOODING. LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT 
LIMITED TO SCIENCE HILL. THIS INCLUDES PITMAN CREEK AS WELL AS 
HOLTZCLAW BRANCH.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE
ROADWAY. THE WATER DEPTH MAY BE TOO GREAT TO ALLOW YOUR CAR TO CROSS
SAFELY. MOVE TO HIGHER GROUND.

TO REPORT ANY FLOODING TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...CALL TOLL
FREE AT...1...8 7 7...6 3 3...6 7 7 2...WHEN YOU CAN DO SO SAFELY.

&&

LAT...LON 3719 8469 3718 8456 3715 8456 3712 8458
      3716 8470

$$

GEOGERIAN

000 
WGUS73 KJKL 190017
FFSJKL

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
817 PM EDT FRI SEP 18 2009

KYC199-190027-
/O.CAN.KJKL.FF.W.0061.000000T0000Z-090919T0045Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
PULASKI KY-
817 PM EDT FRI SEP 18 2009

...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING HAS BEEN CANCELLED FOR CENTRAL PULASKI
COUNTY...

HEAVY RAINFALL HAS ENDED ACROSS THE AREA AND NO ADDITIONAL FLASH 
FLOODING IS EXPECTED.

TO REPORT ANY FLOODING TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...CALL TOLL
FREE AT...1...8 7 7...6 3 3...6 7 7 2...WHEN YOU CAN DO SO SAFELY.

LAT...LON 3719 8469 3718 8456 3715 8456 3712 8458
      3716 8470

$$

GEOGERIAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
301 PM EDT FRI SEP 18 2009

.SHORT TERM.../TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...UPDATED

BETWEEN THE GFS AND THE WRF...THE WRF IS MORE AGGRESSIVE AT BRINGING
DRIER AIR INTO THE REGION FROM THE N AND NE TONIGHT AND SATURDAY.
THIS WAS ALSO THE SCENARIO LEADING INTO TODAY...AND PRECIP WOUND UP
FURTHER NORTH THAN ANTICIPATED. HAVE DECIDED TO GO THE DIRECTION OF
THE GFS WITH ITS HIGHER MOISTURE AND POPS.

LOW PRESSURE OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL BE PICKED UP BY
AN UPPER TROUGH DROPPING/AMPLIFYING INTO THE CENTRAL CONUS THIS
WEEKEND. AS IT HEADS NE TOWARD THE MIDWEST...WE WILL CONTINUE TO SEE
A MOIST FLOW OFF THE GULF READY TO FEED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...
WITH THE HIGHEST POPS ON SUNDAY.

THINK MAX TEMPS WILL BE HELD DOWN DURING THE PRECIP EPISODES...AND
WILL UNDERCUT MOS A BIT.

.LONG TERM.../MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...UPDATED

LONG TERM CONTINUES TO LOOK PRETTY ACTIVE AS AMPLE MOISTURE
CONTINUOUSLY STREAMS INTO THE AREA FROM THE GULF. MEANWHILE...THE MID
LEVEL PATTERN WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY A BROAD TROUGH OVER THE
WESTERN TWO THIRDS OF THE CONUS AND A DIGGING SHORTWAVE THAT CLOSES
OFF OVER THE GREAT PLAINS BY TUESDAY AND RETROGRADES THROUGHOUT THE
WEEK. EAST KENTUCKY WILL BE BETWEEN THIS FEATURE AND H5 RIDGING OFF
THE ATLANTIC COAST...WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR MOISTURE RETURN AT THE MID
LEVELS AS WELL. BY TUESDAY...A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE GREAT
PLAINS SYSTEM WILL MAKE ITS WAY TO THE CONFLUENCE OF THE OHIO AND
MISSISSIPPI RIVERS. MEANWHILE...A SURFACE LOW OVER THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI RIVER WILL RIDE UP THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND COMBINE WITH
WEAK SHORTWAVES EMBEDDED IN THE OVERALL MEAN TROUGH TO KICK OFF AT
LEAST SCATTERED CONVECTION EACH AFTERNOON WITH MAINLY SHOWERS IN THE
EVENINGS. FOR NOW...HAVE GONE WITH LIKELY POPS ON MONDAY AFTERNOON
WITH SCATTERED THEREAFTER. MAY EVENTUALLY HAVE TO UPGRADE TO LIKELY
ON TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT AS SURFACE LOW PASSES TO THE WEST.
OVERALL...MODELS HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH TIMING AND
PLACEMENT OF CLOSED LOW SO CONFIDENCE IS IMPROVING THROUGH THE
EXTENDED.

AS FAR AS TEMPERATURES ARE CONCERNED...HAVE GONE WELL BELOW GFS
GUIDANCE AS AMPLE CLOUD COVER AND PLENTY OF PRECIPITATION SHOULD
KEEP TEMPS DOWN FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES. LOW TEMPERATURES SHOULD STAY
ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR AS HIGH SURFACE MOISTURE SHOULD
KEEP TD/S UP AND AMPLE SKY COVER AT NIGHT WILL LIMIT RADIATIONAL
COOLING.

LOOKING AT FORECAST SOUNDINGS...AT LEAST THROUGH THE FIRST OF THE
WEEK...A VERY MOIST COLUMN COULD ALLOW FOR SOME HEAVY RAINFALL AS
PWATS ARE GENERALLY ABOVE 1.75 INCHES. WITH A PRETTY WET WEEKEND
ALREADY TAKING SHAPE...HYDRO CONCERNS ARE CONTINUING TO BE A CONCERN
ESPECIALLY WITH HEAVIER SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. WILL BE
INTERESTING TO SEE HOW MUCH INSTABILITY WE WILL BE ABLE TO COME BY
WITH SO MUCH SKY COVER DURING THE DAYTIME.
&&

.AVIATION.../18Z TO 18Z/

NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD CONTINUE TO MOVE
ACROSS EAST KENTUCKY THIS AFTERNOON WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
POSSIBLE. EXPECT MARGINALLY MVFR/VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL IN AREAS
THAT ARE NOT SEEING PRECIPITATION...AND DROPPING TO IFR IN ANY SHOWER
OR THUNDERSTORM. EXPECT A DECREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OF
PRECIPITATION AROUND DUSK...HOWEVER ISOLATED TO SCATTERED COVERAGE
OF MAINLY SHOWERS SHOULD STILL EXIST. HAVE GONE VFR FOR THIS SHORT
PERIOD OF TIME AROUND DUSK. TONIGHT EXPECT CONDITIONS TO GRADUALLY
DETERIORATE AS AMPLE MOISTURE FROM TODAY/S RAINFALL HELPS FOG
DEVELOP. CIGS SHOULD ALSO GRADUALLY LOWER. GUIDANCE IS PESSIMISTIC
TOWARD DAWN WITH VIS/CIGS PRETTY MUCH BOTTOMING OUT. WILL STAY A
LITTLE MORE OPTIMISTIC ALTHOUGH SOLID IFR TO LIFR CAN STILL BE
EXPECTED. TONIGHT COULD BE A SITUATION WHERE VISIBILITIES/CIGS ACTUALLY
IMPROVE FOR BRIEF PERIODS OF TIME WHEN SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING THEN
QUICKLY DETERIORATING AFTER SHOWERS PASS. VIS/CIGS SHOULD GRADUALLY
IMPROVE AFTER DAWN ON SATURDAY...WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MORE LIKELY AROUND KLOZ/KSME BY MID MORNING. SURFACE
WINDS SHOULD STAY LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

SHORT TERM...HAL
LONG TERM...SCHOETTMER
AVIATION...SCHOETTMER

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
518 PM EDT FRI SEP 18 2009

KYZ044-051-052-104-191100-
FLEMING-BATH-ROWAN-ELLIOTT-
518 PM EDT FRI SEP 18 2009

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN KENTUCKY.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY. THERE IS ALSO A POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AT
TIMES THROUGHOUT THE THE PERIOD.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

KYZ050-058>060-068-069-079-080-083>088-106>120-191100-
MONTGOMERY-ESTILL-POWELL-MENIFEE-ROCKCASTLE-JACKSON-PULASKI-LAUREL-
WAYNE-MCCREARY-WHITLEY-KNOX-BELL-HARLAN-MORGAN-JOHNSON-WOLFE-
MAGOFFIN-FLOYD-LEE-BREATHITT-KNOTT-OWSLEY-PERRY-CLAY-LESLIE-LETCHER-
MARTIN-PIKE-
518 PM EDT FRI SEP 18 2009

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN KENTUCKY.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
THERE IS ALSO A POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AT TIMES
THROUGHOUT THE THE PERIOD.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

HAL