Flash Flood Warning 52, NWS Jackson, KY

000 
WGUS73 KJKL 120644
FFSJKL

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
244 AM EDT WED AUG 12 2009

KYC095-131-193-120800-
/O.CON.KJKL.FF.W.0052.000000T0000Z-090812T0800Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
PERRY KY-LESLIE KY-HARLAN KY-
244 AM EDT WED AUG 12 2009

...A FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 400 AM EDT FOR NORTH
CENTRAL HARLAN...LESLIE AND CENTRAL PERRY COUNTIES...

AT 238 AM EDT...LOCAL LAW ENFORCEMENT OFFICIALS REPORTED A
THUNDERSTORM PRODUCING FLASH FLOODING OVER THE WARNED AREA. FLOODING 
OF THE BEECH FORK HAVE BEEN REPORTED. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL IS MOVING 
INTO THE AVAWAM AREA WHERE FLOODING WAS REPORTED EARLIER.

THIS THUNDERSTORM WITH EXCESSIVE RAIN WILL OTHERWISE REMAIN OVER
MAINLY RURAL AREAS OF THE INDICATED COUNTIES.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF ONE TO TWO INCHES ARE POSSIBLE IN THE 
WARNED AREA.


BE ESPECIALLY CAUTIOUS AT NIGHT WHEN IT IS HARDER TO RECOGNIZE THE
DANGERS OF FLOODING. IF FLASH FLOODING IS OBSERVED ACT QUICKLY. MOVE
UP TO HIGHER GROUND TO ESCAPE FLOOD WATERS. DO NOT STAY IN AREAS
SUBJECT TO FLOODING WHEN WATER BEGINS RISING.

MOST FLOOD DEATHS OCCUR IN AUTOMOBILES. NEVER DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO
AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE ROADWAY. FLOOD WATERS ARE USUALLY
DEEPER THAN THEY APPEAR. JUST ONE FOOT OF FLOWING WATER IS POWERFUL
ENOUGH TO SWEEP VEHICLES OFF THE ROAD. WHEN ENCOUNTERING FLOODED
ROADS MAKE THE SMART CHOICE...TURN AROUND...DONT DROWN.

A FLASH FLOOD WARNING MEANS THAT FLOODING IS IMMINENT OR OCCURRING.
IF YOU ARE IN THE WARNING AREA MOVE TO HIGHER GROUND IMMEDIATELY.
RESIDENTS LIVING ALONG STREAMS AND CREEKS SHOULD TAKE IMMEDIATE
PRECAUTIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY. DO NOT ATTEMPT TO CROSS
SWIFTLY FLOWING WATERS OR WATERS OF UNKNOWN DEPTH BY FOOT OR BY
AUTOMOBILE.

TO REPORT ANY FLOODING TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...CALL TOLL
FREE AT...1...8 7 7...6 3 3...6 7 7 2...WHEN YOU CAN DO SO SAFELY.

&&

LAT...LON 3720 8310 3702 8317 3695 8317 3685 8325
      3692 8343 3706 8351 3726 8326

$$

JACOBSON

000 
WGUS73 KJKL 120806
FFSJKL

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
406 AM EDT WED AUG 12 2009

KYC095-131-193-120814-
/O.EXP.KJKL.FF.W.0052.000000T0000Z-090812T0800Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
PERRY KY-LESLIE KY-HARLAN KY-
406 AM EDT WED AUG 12 2009

...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING HAS EXPIRED FOR NORTH CENTRAL HARLAN...
LESLIE AND CENTRAL PERRY COUNTIES...

CALLS TO LAW ENFORCEMENT IN HARLAN AND PERRY COUNTIES INDICATE NO 
FLOODING IS OCCURRING AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER...FLOODING IS ONGOING IN 
LESLIE COUNTY AND A FLOOD WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED UNTIL 10 AM. 
HOWEVER...SINCE THE HEAVIER RAINFALL HAS ENDED...THE FLASH FLOOD 
WARNING HAS BEEN ALLOWED TO EXPIRE.

TO REPORT ANY FLOODING TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...CALL TOLL
FREE AT...1...8 7 7...6 3 3...6 7 7 2...WHEN YOU CAN DO SO SAFELY.

LAT...LON 3720 8310 3702 8317 3695 8317 3685 8325
      3692 8343 3706 8351 3726 8326

$$

PELTON

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
1044 PM EDT TUE AUG 11 2009

.SHORT TERM.../TONIGHT/...UPDATED

ONLY MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE FORECAST. A MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
AND ITS ASSOCIATED VERY WEAK COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE
NORTHWEST TONIGHT...PROVIDING CONTINUED SUPPORT FOR SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. HOWEVER...COVERAGE SHOULD STILL BE
SPOTTY...AND 20-30 PERCENT POPS SHOULD SUFFICE.

THE PREVIOUS SHORT TERM FORECAST DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...

/TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/

CURRENT FRONT ALIGNED FROM TOL TO IND TO STL. IT SI SLOWLY MOVING TO
THE SE AND MOST OF THE PCPN IS WELL AHEAD OF THE FNT WHERE MID AND UPPER
LVL DISTURBANCES ARE PROVIDING THE LIFT TO INITIATE CONVECTION.
EXPECTING A LUL IN THE ACTIVITY UNTIL THE NEXT S/WV CAN PULL THE
WIDELY SCT SHRA IN WRN KY INTO THE AREA. THAT SHOULD OCCUR AROUND
SUNSET AND BY THEN WE WILL BE LOSING THE SFC HEATING THAT CONTRIBUTES
TO THE INITIAL LIFT. FNTL BNDRY IS FCST TO PASS THRU THE AREA
OVERNIGHT AND BY MORNING WE SHOULD ONLY SEE SCATTERED ACTIVITY IN THE
ERN MTNS. EXPECTING A SLIGHT RESURGENCE OF THE CONVECTION IN THE LATE
MORNING BUT WITH THE DRIER AIR WORKING INTO THE FOOTHILLS THE PCPN
SHOULD ALL PULL TO THE MTNS AND GRADUALLY END DURING THE AFTERNOON.

THE LACK OF PCPN AND CLOUD COVER OVERNIGHT WILL ALLOW VALLEY FOG TO
FORM THAT MAY SPILL UP THE HILL SLOPES WITH A VERY LIGHT WRLY FLOW TO
THE WIND. SUN WILL BREAK UP THE FOG IN THE MORNING AND RESIDUAL
MOISTURE LIFTING WITH THE MORNING MIXING MAY LIFT INTO ISOLD
SHRA/TSRA. DRIER AND COOLER AIR BEHIND THE DEPARTING FNT WILL KEEP
TEMPS IN CHECK IN SPITE OF COPIOUS SUNSHINE. LOOK FOR MID 60S LOWS
TONIGHT TO FALL INTO THE LOWER 60S WED NIGHT WITH DRIER AIR IN PLACE.
HIGHS ON WED WILL ONLY CLIMB INTO THE MID 80S WHICH IS A FEW DEG
BELOW GFS MOS AND MORE IN LINE WITH THE COOLER NAM NUMBERS.

.LONG TERM.../THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/

ONLY MINIMAL CHANGES MADE TO DAYS 3-7 OF THE FORECAST. WITH THE
ECMWF AND GFS MODELS BOTH STILL SUGGESTING DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS
AND STORMS FOR FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY PERIOD...AND WITH CHANCE POPS
STILL SHOWING UP IN BOTH THE HPC AND MEXMOS GUIDANCE...DECIDED TO
CONTINUE WITH THE PREVIOUS TREND OF DIURNAL PRECIPITATION. THE ONE
CHANGE MADE HERE...HOWEVER...WAS TO LOWER PRECIP CHANCES ACROSS THE
BOARD FOR FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...AS SOME UNCERTAINTY DOES EXIST IN
THE MODELS AS TO THE TRACK OF AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE UP THE EAST
COAST OVER THE WEEKEND...AND THE DISTRIBUTION OF QPF ON THE WESTERN
SIDE OF THE LOW. THE MEXMOS CONTINUES TO BOUNCE BACK AND FORTH WITH
TEMPERATURES...WITH THE 12Z RUN ONCE AGAIN GOING SLIGHTLY WARMER
THAN THE 0Z RUN. WITH THIS IN MIND...TEMPERATURES WERE LEFT
ESSENTIALLY AS IS DAYS 3-7. DEWPOINTS...WINDS...AND SKY COVER WERE
ALSO IN GOOD SHAPE...WITH FEW IF ANY CHANGES MADE THERE EITHER.

&&

.AVIATION.../00Z TO 24Z/

ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE GRADUALLY COMING TO AN END
ACROSS THE AREA WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. HAVE A FAIRLY LARGE
AREA OF MID LEVEL DEBRIS CLOUDS TO DEAL WITH...WHICH WILL LIKELY HELP
KEEP TEMPS UP A BIT. WITH CLOUD COVER...WENT A BIT MORE OPTIMISTIC ON
OVERNIGHT VISBYS ASSOCIATED WITH FOG AS COMPARED WITH MODEL GUIDANCE.
THE THREAT OF CONVECTION WILL REMAIN THROUGH MUCH OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD. BUT COVERAGE SHOULD BE LOW ENOUGH TO WARRANT THE MENTION OF
ONLY A CB CLOUD GROUP FOR SEVERAL HOURS THIS EVENING...THEN AGAIN
TOMORROW AFTERNOON.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

SHORT TERM...DUSTY/HAL
LONG TERM....AR
AVIATION...RAY

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
412 PM EDT TUE AUG 11 2009

KYZ044-050>052-058>060-068-069-079-080-083>088-104-106>120-122315-
FLEMING-MONTGOMERY-BATH-ROWAN-ESTILL-POWELL-MENIFEE-ROCKCASTLE-
JACKSON-PULASKI-LAUREL-WAYNE-MCCREARY-WHITLEY-KNOX-BELL-HARLAN-
ELLIOTT-MORGAN-JOHNSON-WOLFE-MAGOFFIN-FLOYD-LEE-BREATHITT-KNOTT-
OWSLEY-PERRY-CLAY-LESLIE-LETCHER-MARTIN-PIKE-
412 PM EDT TUE AUG 11 2009

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN KENTUCKY.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE TONIGHT. SOME STORMS COULD BECOME STRONG
AND PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY. THERE IS ALSO A CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS FROM FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

JJ/DUSTY