Flash Flood Warning 44, NWS Jackson, KY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
312 AM EDT SUN JUL 26 2009

.SHORT TERM.../TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...UPDATED

FRONTAL BOUNDARY CONTINUES TO SLIDE SLOWLY TO THE SOUTHEAST INCHING
INTO NORTHERN KENTUCKY AT THIS TIME. WIDESPREAD CONVECTION ACROSS
THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT TO THE SOUTHEAST
WITH TIME. THE 25/21Z SREF MEAN NAILED THE OVERNIGHT INCREASE IN
PRECIP ACROSS OUR AREA AND WE GENERALLY RELIED ON IT/S POPS FOR
TODAY. THUS... EXPECT THE AXIS OF HEAVIER PRECIP TODAY TO BE ALIGNED
OVER SOUTHEAST KENTUCKY. PWATS WILL LOWER A BIT BUT REMAIN AT OR
ABOVE 1.5 INCHES OVER THE UPPER CUMBERLAND REGION AND WITH LOW FFG
VALUES... WE WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING. A
FLASH FLOOD WATCH MAY BE NEEDED FOR PARTS OF THE AREA BUT WILL WATCH
CONVECTION TRENDS OVER WESTERN KENTUCKY FOR A BIT LONGER TO SEE IF
THIS ACTIVITY WILL TRACK OVER AREAS CURRENTLY RECEIVING HEAVY
RAINFALL.

THE FRONT WILL DROP TO OUR SOUTH TONIGHT WITH A SLIGHTLY DRIER
AIRMASS SLOWLY ADVECTING IN BEHIND. THIS WILL PUSH THE MORE
WIDESPREAD CONVECTION TO OUR SOUTH BY MONDAY MORNING. STILL CANNOT
RULE OUT A FEW SHOWERS/STORMS NEAR THE TENNESSEE AND VIRGINIA
BORDERS ON MONDAY BUT WE WILL CONTINUE THE DRY FORECAST FOR MONDAY
NIGHT.

MADE NO BIG DEVIATIONS FROM THE GFS MOS GUIDANCE THROUGH THE PERIOD.

.LONG TERM.../TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...UPDATED

GENERAL MODEL AGREEMENT CONTINUES WITH AN UNUSUALLY PERSISTENT
TROUGH FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR OCCURRING ACROSS THE CENTRAL
CONUS...KEEPING MAINLY UNSETTLED WEATHER FOR EASTERN KENTUCKY. THERE
ARE PLENTY OF DIFFERENCES WITHIN THE DETAILS OF THIS PATTERN
HOWEVER...ESPECIALLY WITH THE IMPACT OF CONVECTION...SO HAVE
CONTINUED TO RELY HEAVILY ON PERSISTENCE.

A SERIES OF VIGOROUS SHORT WAVES WILL SPIRAL THROUGH SOUTHERN CANADA
AND THE GREAT LAKES...HELPING TO REINFORCE THE LONG WAVE TROUGH
ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS. A PERSISTENT WEAK TO MODERATE LOW LEVEL
JET WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA FROM TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
MAINTAINING THE THREAT FOR AT LEAST SCATTERED CONVECTION. THE BEST
THREAT FOR PRECIP APPEARS TO ARRIVE ON WEDNESDAY AS A SHORTWAVE MOVES
INTO THE OHIO VALLEY SCOOPING UP A RICH MOISTURE SUPPLY FROM THE
GULF. WITH GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT ON THE EVENT...DECIDED TO NUDGE UP
POPS INTO THE LIKELY RANGE. OTHERWISE...MODEL DIFFERENCES AS TO
WHERE THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE FRONT WILL BE NECESSITATE NO GREATER
THAN CHANCE POPS...WITH A DIURNAL INFLUENCE TO THE CONVECTION.

NUDGED TEMPS UP A FEW DEGREES ON TUESDAY WITH BOTH THE 26/00Z GFS
AND 25/12Z ECMWF INDICATING SOME WARMING ALOFT IN ADVANCE OF DIVING
SHORTWAVE TO OUR WEST. OTHERWISE...MAINTAINED CONTINUITY WITH TEMPS.

&&

.AVIATION.../06Z TO 06Z/

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WERE ONGOING IN THE FORECAST AREA DURING
THE HOUR BEFORE TAF ISSUANCE...BRINGING LOCALIZED LIFR CONDITIONS.
WILL EXPECT MUCH OF THE ACTIVITY TO DIE DOWN BEFORE DAYBREAK...
FOLLOWED BY A RELATIVE LULL WITH VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH MUCH OF THE
DAY. THERE IS ANOTHER INCREASED POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT IN THE AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY LATE...LASTING INTO THE
EVENING.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

SHORT TERM...ABE
LONG TERM...GEOGERIAN/ABE
AVIATION...HAL

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
408 AM EDT SUN JUL 26 2009

KYZ044-050>052-058>060-104-106>109-111-119-271100-
FLEMING-MONTGOMERY-BATH-ROWAN-ESTILL-POWELL-MENIFEE-ELLIOTT-MORGAN-
JOHNSON-WOLFE-MAGOFFIN-LEE-MARTIN-
408 AM EDT SUN JUL 26 2009

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN KENTUCKY.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TODAY INTO THIS EVENING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE FROM TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. THE BEST
CHANCE FOR RAINFALL WILL BE ON WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS A
MOISTURE LADEN COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THIS PERIOD.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

KYZ068-069-079-080-083>088-110-112>118-120-271100-
ROCKCASTLE-JACKSON-PULASKI-LAUREL-WAYNE-MCCREARY-WHITLEY-KNOX-BELL-
HARLAN-FLOYD-BREATHITT-KNOTT-OWSLEY-PERRY-CLAY-LESLIE-LETCHER-PIKE-
408 AM EDT SUN JUL 26 2009

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN KENTUCKY.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TODAY. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS
POSSIBLE AND THE REPEATED MOVEMENT OF STORMS OVER THE SAME AREAS MAY
CAUSE LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING.

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE THEN EXPECTED TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY
DURING THE EVENING HOURS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ON MONDAY AND THEN AGAIN FROM TUESDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY. THE BEST CHANCE FOR RAINFALL WILL BE ON WEDNESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS A MOISTURE LADEN COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE
AREA. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THIS PERIOD.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT ANY OBSERVED FLOODING TO THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN JACKSON.

ABE

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