Flash Flood Warning 42, NWS Jackson, KY

000 
WGUS73 KJKL 130008
FFSJKL

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
808 PM EDT SUN JUL 12 2009

KYC231-130115-
/O.CON.KJKL.FF.W.0042.000000T0000Z-090713T0115Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
WAYNE KY-
808 PM EDT SUN JUL 12 2009

...A FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 915 PM EDT FOR
SOUTHWESTERN WAYNE COUNTY...

AT 805 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED 
THAT THUNDERSTORMS WHICH PRODUCED VERY HEAVY RAINFALL OVER 
SOUTHWESTERN WAYNE COUNTY HAVE WEAKENED. HOWEVER...RUNOFF FROM THIS 
EARLIER RAINFALL COMBINED WITH RAINFALL FROM ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM 
ACTIVITY WHICH IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE WARNED AREA AFTER 9 PM 
MAY CONTINUE TO RESULT IN FLASH FLOODING THIS EVENING.

LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO SLICKFORD... 
HIDALGO...SUSIE...ZULA AND SUNNYBROOK.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

MOST FLOOD DEATHS OCCUR IN AUTOMOBILES. NEVER DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO
AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE ROADWAY. FLOOD WATERS ARE USUALLY
DEEPER THAN THEY APPEAR. JUST ONE FOOT OF FLOWING WATER IS POWERFUL
ENOUGH TO SWEEP VEHICLES OFF THE ROAD. WHEN ENCOUNTERING FLOODED
ROADS MAKE THE SMART CHOICE...TURN AROUND...DONT DROWN.

TO REPORT ANY FLOODING TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...CALL TOLL
FREE AT...1...8 7 7...6 3 3...6 7 7 2...WHEN YOU CAN DO SO SAFELY.

&&

LAT...LON 3661 8497 3662 8499 3663 8501 3667 8501
      3670 8503 3674 8502 3677 8502 3680 8503
      3682 8489 3661 8480

$$

ABE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
345 PM EDT SUN JUL 12 2009

.SHORT TERM.../TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...UPDATED

FRONTAL BOUNDARY CONTINUES TO EASE ITS WAY SOUTHWARD INTO EASTERN
KENTUCKY...ROUGHLY SITUATED JUST SOUTH OF THE INTERSTATE 64
CORRIDOR. A THICK CI SHIELD...AND CU FIELD HAVE RETARDED INITIATION
OF CONVECTION ACROSS THE AREA. HOWEVER...GOES SOUNDING DATA AND THE
RUC CONTINUE TO SHOW STRONG SFC BASED INSTABILITY AND HIGH CAPE
ACROSS PORTIONS OF OUR CWA...ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF THE HAL ROGERS
PARKWAY. WITH THE ATMOSPHERE PRIMED FOR ACTION...STILL EXPECT
CONVECTION TO FIRE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY SAGS SOUTHWARD. THE APPROACH OF AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE
MOVING INTO THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REGION WILL ACT AS THE MAIN
TRIGGER FOR KICKING OFF ACTIVITY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THE
EVENING HOURS...MOST LIKELY AFFECTING OUR SOUTHERN MOST COUNTIES. AS
SUCH CONTINUED TO CARRY A LIKELY POP IN OUR DEEP SOUTH...TAPERING
OFF TO THE NORTH FROM THERE. WITH DRIER AIR FILTERING INTO OUR
NORTHERN ZONES BEHIND THE FRONT...EXPECT OVERNIGHT FOG WILL BE
RESTRICTED MAINLY TO AREAS FURTHER SOUTH...WHERE THE THE EFFECTS OF
RAIN AND HIGHER SFC DEW POINTS WILL BE REALIZED.

.LONG TERM.../MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...UPDATED

THE MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH THE MAJOR FEATURES OF
LONGWAVE PATTERN THROUGH THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST. THE
SOUTHWEST RIDGE WILL REMAIN ROUGHLY IN PLACE THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND AS
THE JET STREAM RIPPLES PAST TO ITS NORTH AND EAST WENDING AROUND THE
VARIOUS UPPER LOWS TRACKING WEST TO EAST ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER.
THE INITIAL QUEBEC LOW WILL PIVOT NORTHEAST BY MIDWEEK AS THE NEXT
TROUGH ROLLS INTO THE GREAT LAKES FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THE
NAM IS THE SLOWEST SOLUTION WITH RESPECT TO THIS REINFORCING TROUGH
WHEN COMPARED TO THE GFS AND LATEST ECMWF. THIS EVOLUTION WILL ALLOW
THE SOUTHWEST RIDGE TO OOZE EAST THROUGH THE DEEP SOUTH TO THE
ATLANTIC COAST...PLACING KENTUCKY IN FAST...NEARLY ZONAL...NORTHWEST
FLOW. FOR THE END OF THE WORK WEEK THE NEW TROUGH DEEPENS OVER THE
GREAT LAKES AND SOUTHERN ONTARIO WITH HEIGHT FALLS PUSHING SOUTH
THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY. AT THIS POINT THE GFS IS SLOWER TO PROGRESS
THE CORE OF THE TROUGH EAST COMPARED TO THE ECMWF...HOLDING BACK
MORE ENERGY OVER THE HIGH PLAINS. THIS AND OTHER SHORT WAVES WILL
SERVE TO BROADEN THE TROUGH THROUGH THE NORTHEAST THIRD OF THE
CONTINENT KEEPING EAST KENTUCKY IN NORTHWEST FLOW WITH PLENTY OF
MINOR WAVES RIPPLING PAST. AFTER BEING OUT OF SYNC WITH THE UPPER
TROUGH INITIALLY THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE QUITE SIMILAR FOR SATURDAY
BEFORE DRIFTING APART BY SUNDAY AS IT WILL THEN BE THE ECMWF/S TURN
TO HOLD BACK ENERGY TO OUR NORTHWEST RATHER THAN PIVOT THE AXIS
SOUTH THROUGH KENTUCKY AS DEPICTED BY THE GFS. THROUGH THE EXTENDED
HAVE FOLLOWED A BLENDED SOLUTION WITH A GREATER EMPHASIS ON THE
ECMWF WHERE ANY SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES WERE NOTED.

SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE A COLD FRONT SLOWLY PULLING SOUTH AWAY
FROM EAST KENTUCKY ON MONDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS BY TO THE
NORTH. WITH THE GROUND LIKELY MOIST FROM THE EARLIER RAINS IN THE
WAKE OF THE FRONT...SOME CLEARING TO THE SKIES...AND LIGHT WINDS
EXPECT FOG TO FORM AND BECOME LOCALLY DENSE BY TUESDAY MORNING. HIGH
PRESSURE...HOWEVER WEAK...SHOULD KEEP PCPN AT BAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
MORNING WHEN THE SFC REFLECTION OF THAT FUTURE GREAT LAKES TROUGH
SENDS ITS DEVELOPING WARM FRONT AND TRAILING COLD FRONT TOWARD THE
REGION RESULTING IN AN INCREASING CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY IN OUR NORTHWEST ON WEDNESDAY...BUT WITH THE
BETTER PCPN CHANCES WORKING SOUTHEAST THAT NIGHT AND THURSDAY AS THE
SYSTEM/S STALLING COLD FRONT SETTLES THROUGH THE AREA. SOUTHWEST
WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT SHOULD HELP TO GIVE US THE WARMEST DAY OF
THE FORECAST WITH READINGS UP NEAR 90 IN MOST LOCATIONS. THE FRONT
WILL THEN BE THE MAIN ISSUE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK WITH
THE ECMWF TAKING IT SOUTH OF THE AREA...BUT KEEPING IT CLOSE AND THE
GFS HAVING IT COME TO REST ALONG OUR BORDER WITH TENNESSEE. HAVE
DRAWN THE GRIDS FOR A SOLUTION CLOSER TO THE ECMWF...BUT LINGERED
CHANCE POPS LONGER IN THE SOUTH DUE TO SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH THAT
FRONT. A BROAD AREA OF WEAK HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF THAT BOUNDARY
SHOULD KEEP THE CONVECTION TO A MINIMUM THROUGH THE WEEKEND...BUT
WOULD NOT RULE IT OUT COMPLETELY CONSIDERING THE DYNAMICS AVAILABLE
ALOFT...ESPECIALLY SHOULD THE GFS TURN OUT TO BE MORE CORRECT.
REGARDLESS...FROM THURSDAY ON...TEMPERATURES WILL SETTLE BACK TO
COOLER THAN NORMAL...REFLECTIVE OF THE TROUGHINESS THAT HAS
DOMINATED OUR SUMMER PATTERN THUS FAR.

FOR TEMPERATURES...MAINLY USED THE HPC GRIDS WITH SOME TERRAIN BASED
MODIFICATIONS BOTH DURING THE DAY AND AT NIGHT. DID GO A BIT COOLER
ON WEDNESDAY WITH THE CLOUDS AND CONVECTION EXPECTED TO IMPACT AT
LEAST OUR WESTERN AREAS. AS FOR POPS...ENDED UP CLOSE TO HPC/MEX
GUIDANCE THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...BUT DID DEVIATE ON THE DRY SIDE
FROM THE MEX FOR FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION.../02Z TO 24Z/

SUBSTANTIAL LOW LEVEL CU FIELD AND HAZY SKIES IN PLACE ACROSS THE
AREA. WITH A COLD FRONT IN THE VICINITY EXPECT SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO FIRE ACROSS THE AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON...AND
LINGER INTO THE EVENING. AREAS MOST AFFECTED WILL BE OUR SOUTHERN TAF
SITES WHERE THE INSTABILITY IS GREATEST. UNFAVORABLE MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES WILL TEND TO RETARD ACTIVITY FURTHER NORTH. WITH AMPLE BOUNDARY
LAYER MOISTURE IN PLACE...RAIN EXPECTED LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING ACROSS THE SOUTH...FOG WILL ONCE AGAIN AFFECT SOUTHERN TAF
SITES OVERNIGHT. SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE AREA AND SAGGING
COLD FRONT INTO THE TN VALLEY WILL HELP IMPROVE THE WEATHER AND
SCATTER SKIES OUT BY MONDAY. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE POSSIBLE
IN THE SOUTH LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

SHORT TERM...RAY
LONG TERM...GREIF
AVIATION...RAY

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
410 PM EDT SUN JUL 12 2009

KYZ044-050>052-058>060-068-069-079-080-083>088-104-106>120-132315-
FLEMING-MONTGOMERY-BATH-ROWAN-ESTILL-POWELL-MENIFEE-ROCKCASTLE-
JACKSON-PULASKI-LAUREL-WAYNE-MCCREARY-WHITLEY-KNOX-BELL-HARLAN-
ELLIOTT-MORGAN-JOHNSON-WOLFE-MAGOFFIN-FLOYD-LEE-BREATHITT-KNOTT-
OWSLEY-PERRY-CLAY-LESLIE-LETCHER-MARTIN-PIKE-
410 PM EDT SUN JUL 12 2009

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN KENTUCKY.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

THERE IS A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS...GENERALLY SOUTH OF INTERSTATE
64.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

THERE IS A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS ON MONDAY AND MONDAY EVENING...
GENERALLY SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 64.

THERE IS ALSO A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS FROM AROUND DAWN ON WEDNESDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

RAY