Flash Flood Warning 23, NWS Jackson, KY

000 
WGUS73 KJKL 042255
FFSJKL

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
655 PM EDT THU JUN 4 2009

KYC121-147-235-050145-
/O.CON.KJKL.FF.W.0023.000000T0000Z-090605T0145Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
KNOX KY-WHITLEY KY-MCCREARY KY-
655 PM EDT THU JUN 4 2009

...A FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 945 PM EDT FOR
SOUTHERN MCCREARY...CENTRAL WHITLEY AND KNOX COUNTIES...

AT 650 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO 
INDICATE A LARGE BAND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF 
PRODUCING FLASH FLOODING OVER THE WARNED AREA. THE AREA HAS RECEIVED 
HEAVY RAIN OVER THE LAST COUPLE OF HOURS...WITH RAINFALL RATES OF 2 
INCHES AN HOUR...OR GREATER HAVING BEEN RECORDED. ALSO...RADAR 
ESTIMATES INDICATE AS MUCH AS THREE INCHES OF RAINFALL HAS FALLEN 
OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS IN SOME LOCATIONS. SHOWERS AND 
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO MOVE REPEATEDLY OVER THE 
SAME GENERAL AREAS THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. THE ADDITIONAL 
RAINFALL IN COMBINATION WITH EXCESSIVE RUNOFF OVER A SATURATED 
GROUND WILL LIKELY RESULT IN SOME FLOODING OVER THE AREA. 

LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO WHITLEY 
CITY...YEAGER...WOODBINE...WILTON...WALKER...WALDEN...SUTTONS 
MILL...REDBIRD...BENTLEY STATION...MILLS...LOWELL...LOUDEN... 
CUMBERLAND FALLS S.P. ...BEULAH HEIGHTS...WILLIAMSBURG...LIBERTY AND 
BARBOURVILLE

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

BE ESPECIALLY CAUTIOUS AT NIGHT WHEN IT IS HARDER TO RECOGNIZE THE
DANGERS OF FLOODING. IF FLASH FLOODING IS OBSERVED ACT QUICKLY. MOVE
UP TO HIGHER GROUND TO ESCAPE FLOOD WATERS. DO NOT STAY IN AREAS
SUBJECT TO FLOODING WHEN WATER BEGINS RISING.

MOST FLOOD DEATHS OCCUR IN AUTOMOBILES. NEVER DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO
AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE ROADWAY. FLOOD WATERS ARE USUALLY
DEEPER THAN THEY APPEAR. JUST ONE FOOT OF FLOWING WATER IS POWERFUL
ENOUGH TO SWEEP VEHICLES OFF THE ROAD. WHEN ENCOUNTERING FLOODED
ROADS MAKE THE SMART CHOICE...TURN AROUND...DONT DROWN.

TO REPORT ANY FLOODING TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...CALL TOLL
FREE AT...1...8 7 7...6 3 3...6 7 7 2...WHEN YOU CAN DO SO SAFELY.

&&

LAT...LON 3659 8431 3659 8446 3660 8447 3660 8474
      3680 8449 3701 8382 3693 8358 3682 8377
      3676 8394 3672 8409 3667 8420 3659 8429

$$

RAY

000 
WGUS73 KJKL 050141
FFSJKL

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
941 PM EDT THU JUN 4 2009

KYC121-147-235-050149-
/O.EXP.KJKL.FF.W.0023.000000T0000Z-090605T0145Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
KNOX KY-WHITLEY KY-MCCREARY KY-
941 PM EDT THU JUN 4 2009

...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING WILL EXPIRE AT 945 PM EDT FOR SOUTHERN
MCCREARY...CENTRAL WHITLEY AND KNOX COUNTIES...

NO REPORTS OF FLOODING HAVE BEEN RECEIVED AND THE HEAVY RAIN HAS 
COME TO AN END ACROSS THE AREA OF CONCERN. THEREFORE...THE FLASH 
FLOOD WARNING WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 945 PM.

TO REPORT ANY FLOODING TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...CALL TOLL
FREE AT...1...8 7 7...6 3 3...6 7 7 2...WHEN YOU CAN DO SO SAFELY.

LAT...LON 3659 8431 3659 8446 3660 8447 3660 8474
      3680 8449 3701 8382 3693 8358 3682 8377
      3676 8394 3672 8409 3667 8420 3659 8429

$$

RAY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
259 PM EDT THU JUN 4 2009

.SHORT TERM.../TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...UPDATED

THE MAIN FOCUS FOR THE SHORT TERM FORECAST WILL DEAL WITH A QUASI
STATIONARY BOUNDARY NEAR THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE CWA AND THE
ASSOCIATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WITH IT. CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS
SEEMS TO SHOW THE BOUNDARY HAS SLID SOUTH OF THE CWA INTO
TENNESSEE...ALTHOUGH A TIGHT TEMPERATURE GRADIENT EXISTS FROM THE
NORTHERN CWA TO SOUTHERN CWA. TEMPS HAVE NOT GOTTEN OUT OF THE UPPER
50S NORTH OF INTERSTATE 64 UNDER HEAVY SKY COVER AND CAA...FURTHER
SOUTH TOWARD THE TENNESSEE BORDER TEMPERATURES WERE ABLE TO GET UP TO
THE MID AND UPPER 70S WHERE CAA HAS NOT STARTED UNTIL JUST RECENTLY.
EXPECT TEMPS TO FALL OFF QUICKLY AFTER SUNSET IN THE SOUTH.

AS FAR AS PRECIPITATION IS CONCERNED...FEEL AN ISOLATED THREAT FOR
FLASH FLOODING COULD STILL EXIST IN THE EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES
OF THE CWA THROUGH TONIGHT. CURRENTLY...H5 TROUGH AXIS OVER WESTERN
KENTUCKY HAS FINALLY STARTED ITS PUSH EASTWARD AND EXPECT TO SEE THE
TREND IN RADAR RETURNS TO DO THE SAME AS THE WHOLE SYSTEM BEGINS TO
MAKE ITS EXIT. THIS SHOULD BRING AN ENHANCEMENT IN COVERAGE OF
SHOWERS ACROSS THE CWA THIS EVENING AS THE TRANSITION BEGINS AND
UPSTREAM PRECIP MOVES IN. HAVE SOME CONCERN FOR THE SOUTHEASTERN-MOST
COUNTIES OF CWA AS STRONGER SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ORIENTED SW -
NE HAVE BEEN STEADILY MOVING OVER THE AREA. SOME TRAINING IS
OCCURRING W/ STORMS TO THE SOUTH. STORM TOTAL PRECIP VALUES AND 12Z
USP PROCEDURE SHOW THAT SOME AREAS HAVE RECEIVED 4 TO 6 INCHES OF
RAIN IN PAST TWO DAYS. THIS SEEMS TO BE HAIL CONTAMINATED AND
OVERESTIMATED AS SEVERAL CALLS TO THE AREA HAVE REVEALED NO FLOODING
PROBLEMS. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR RADAR AND FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE FOR
ANY ADVISORIES AND/OR WARNINGS.

WILL CONTINUE TO LEAVE SLIGHT CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS IN THE ZFP
BEFORE MIDNIGHT IN THE EAST AS A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES HAVE OCCURRED
TODAY W/ MARGINAL INSTABILITY. WILL INCLUDE MENTION OF AREAS OF DENSE
FOG ON THE RIDGETOPS AS KJKL HAS BEEN SOCKED IN ALL DAY AND IS
FORECAST TO CONTINUE. SOME FOG COULD BE LOCALLY DENSE IN VALLEY
LOCATIONS AS WELL OVERNIGHT. TEMPERATURES WERE COOLER THAN EXPECTED
THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS REFLECTS IN THE LATEST GUIDANCE VALUES FOR
THE OVERNIGHT AND HAVE TRENDED DOWN SLIGHTLY. FEEL THAT SINCE WEAK
CAA HAS COMMENCED ACROSS ALL CWA AND HEAVY CLOUD COVER WILL REMAIN
OVER THE AREA OVERNIGHT...TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE FAIRLY UNIFORM IN
THE MID 50S TONIGHT. DID NOT MAKE MANY CHANGES TO FRIDAYS HIGH
TEMPERATURES AND STAYED NEAR THE HIGH SIDE OF GUIDANCE. HOW QUICKLY
SKY COVER MOVES OUT OF THE AREA WILL DETERMINE HOW ACCURATE
TEMPERATURES ARE FOR TOMORROW.

.LONG TERM.../FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...UPDATED
THE MODELS START OUT IN GOOD AGREEMENT. WE START OUT DRY WITH A COLD
FRONT TO THE EAST OF THE AREA AND HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATING. THIS
WILL ALLOW FOR A DRY WEEKEND FOR A CHANGE. THE TRICKY PART OF THE
FORECAST IS THEN TO PREDICT WHEN THE FRONT TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA
IS ABLE TO MOVE BACK ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY. FROM THE CURRENT MODEL
RUNS...AM BRINGING IN SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INTO
THE FORECAST ON MONDAY. THIS WILL BE FROM SOME UNSTABLE AIR IN THE
WARM SECTOR AND SHOULD HAVE AN AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING PEAK. ON
TUESDAY...AM EXPECTING THE FRONT TO MOVE TO THE SOUTH AND BRING MORE
WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION TO THE AREA. THIS IS WHERE MY CONFIDENCE
STARTS TO WANE AND THE MODELS ARE ALSO STARTING TO DIVERGE A BIT ON
TIMING. THE MODELS THEN KEEP THE FRONT EITHER OVER OR NEAR THE AREA
THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD. IT IS NOT GOING TO RAIN THE ENTIRE
TIME...BUT THERE WILL BE PERIODS OF RAINFALL AS IMPULSES MOVE ACROSS
THE AREA. STAYED PRETTY CLOSE TO MOS FOR THE TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION.../18Z TO 18Z/

A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY CONTINUES TO HANG AROUND THE
SOUTHERN PART OF EASTERN KENTUCKY AND WILL DO SO THROUGH MUCH OF THE
PERIOD...BRINGING MAINLY MVFR CONDITIONS KSME/KLOZ AND VLIFR
CONDITIONS TO KJKL. EXPECT KJKL TO STAY BELOW IFR FOR MUCH OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD AS LOW CIGS/VIS DUE TO LOW STRATUS/FOG ON RIDGES.
KSME/KLOZ WILL LIKELY GO TO VLIFR FOR A BRIEF TIME AROUND DAWN WITH
CIGS BELOW 500 FEET.

EXPECT INTERMITTENT RAIN SHOWERS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE REST OF THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...BEFORE TAPERING OFF AFTER MIDNIGHT. A RUMBLE
OR TWO OF THUNDER CANNOT BE RULED OUT AT KLOZ/KSME AND WILL KEEP
MENTION IN TAFS. CONDITIONS BEGIN TO IMPROVE BY LATE MORNING ON
FRIDAY WITH SURFACE WINDS GENERALLY LIGHT AND OUT OF THE NORTH FOR
THE ENTIRE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

SHORT TERM...SCHOETTMER
LONG TERM...JJ
AVIATION...SCHOETTMER

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
421 PM EDT THU JUN 4 2009

KYZ044-050>052-058>060-068-069-079-080-083>088-104-106>120-052330-
FLEMING-MONTGOMERY-BATH-ROWAN-ESTILL-POWELL-MENIFEE-ROCKCASTLE-
JACKSON-PULASKI-LAUREL-WAYNE-MCCREARY-WHITLEY-KNOX-BELL-HARLAN-
ELLIOTT-MORGAN-JOHNSON-WOLFE-MAGOFFIN-FLOYD-LEE-BREATHITT-KNOTT-
OWSLEY-PERRY-CLAY-LESLIE-LETCHER-MARTIN-PIKE-
421 PM EDT THU JUN 4 2009

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN KENTUCKY.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

THERE IS A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS IN THE EVENING...MAINLY NEAR THE
TENNESSEE AND VIRGINIA BORDERS. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE
WITH ANY THUNDERSTORM...WHICH COULD RESULT IN FLOODING PROBLEMS.

ALSO...AREAS OF DENSE FOG COULD REDUCE VISIBILITIES BELOW A QUARTER
OF A MILE AT TIMES TONIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

VALLEY FOG COULD BECOME LOCALLY DENSE ON FRIDAY NIGHT.

THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE AT TIMES FROM MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT INSTANCES OF HEAVY RAINFALL OR
FLOODING TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN JACKSON.

JP/SCHOETTMER