Flash Flood Warning 2, NWS Jackson, KY

000 
WGUS73 KJKL 040448
FFSJKL

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
1248 AM EDT MON MAY 4 2009

KYC125-147-199-203-231-235-040830-
/O.CON.KJKL.FF.W.0002.000000T0000Z-090504T0830Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
ROCKCASTLE KY-PULASKI KY-LAUREL KY-WAYNE KY-WHITLEY KY-MCCREARY KY-
1248 AM EDT MON MAY 4 2009

...A FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 430 AM EDT FOR
MCCREARY...WESTERN WHITLEY...WAYNE...LAUREL...PULASKI AND SOUTHERN
ROCKCASTLE COUNTIES...

AT 1235 AM EDT...LOCAL LAW ENFORCEMENT OFFICIALS REPORTED THE 
CLOSURE OF NUMEROUS STREETS IN THE CITIES OF LONDON AND CORBIN DUE 
TO HIGH WATER. TRAINED SPOTTERS ALSO INDICATED FLASH FLOODING 
OCCURRING IN NORTHERN WHITLEY COUNTY.

EXCESSIVE RUNOFF WILL CONTINUE TO CAUSE FLASH FLOODING THROUGH THE 
OVERNIGHT HOURS. BE ESPECIALLY CAUTIOUS AT NIGHT WHEN IT IS HARDER 
TO RECOGNIZE THE DANGERS OF FLOODING. IF FLASH FLOODING IS OBSERVED 
ACT QUICKLY. MOVE UP TO HIGHER GROUND TO ESCAPE FLOOD WATERS. DO NOT 
STAY IN AREAS SUBJECT TO FLOODING WHEN WATER BEGINS RISING.

MOST FLOOD DEATHS OCCUR IN AUTOMOBILES. NEVER DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO
AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE ROADWAY. WHEN ENCOUNTERING FLOODED 
ROADS MAKE THE SMART CHOICE...TURN AROUND...DONT DROWN.

TO REPORT ANY FLOODING TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...CALL TOLL
FREE AT...1...8 7 7...6 3 3...6 7 7 2...WHEN YOU CAN DO SO SAFELY.

LAT...LON 3695 8495 3695 8492 3700 8486 3706 8493
      3711 8491 3735 8457 3725 8397 3697 8407
      3696 8410 3693 8409 3661 8420 3662 8500
      3663 8501 3677 8502 3686 8507

$$

ABE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
821 PM EDT SUN MAY 3 2009

.SHORT TERM.../TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/

18Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING OVER THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WITH A STATIONARY FRONT DRAPED JUST SOUTH OF THE
KENTUCKY BORDER. OVER-RUNNING SHOWERS CONTINUE TO SPREAD NORTH AND
EAST OF THIS BOUNDARY KEEPING EAST KENTUCKY QUITE DAMP. AFTER A BIT
OF A LULL...THE SHOWERS HAVE FILLED BACK IN TO OUR SOUTHWEST SETTING
UP A VERY WET NIGHT FOR MOST OF THE AREA. TEMPERATURES REMAIN ON THE
CHILLY SIDE THROUGH THE CWA WITH READINGS RANGING FROM THE MID 50S IN
THE NORTHWEST TO THE MID 60S IN THE FAR SOUTHEAST. FROM LAST NIGHT
THROUGH TODAY MUCH OF FAR SOUTHEAST KENTUCKY HAS PICKED UP BETWEEN
ONE AND TWO INCHES OF RAIN...PRIMING THESE LOCATIONS FOR FLASH
FLOODING WITH THE ADDITION OF ANY MORE HEAVY RAIN. UNFORTUNATELY...
THAT IS WHAT WE ARE LOOKING AT SO HAVE ISSUED A FLASH FLOOD WATCH
THROUGH NOON FOR OUR SOUTHEAST COUNTIES AND AN ESF ADDRESSING THE
FLASH FLOOD POTENTIAL ELSEWHERE AS WELL AS HIGHLIGHTING THE THREAT
OF RIVER FLOODING LATER IN THE WEEK AS THE RUNOFF MOVES DOWNSTREAM.

FOR THE SHORT TERM...THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD ENOUGH AGREEMENT ALOFT
WITH THE SHARP TROUGH SHIFTING THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY LATER TONIGHT
AND EARLY MONDAY. THE GFS IS A LITTLE STRONGER THAN THE NAM WITH THIS
FEATURE...BUT ALSO APPEARS TO SUFFER FROM GRID SCALE FEEDBACK. AS
SUCH...HAVE FOLLOWED THE NAM SOLUTION MOST CLOSELY.

HEAVY RAIN IS ANTICIPATED TONIGHT AS THE LATEST SFC LOW MOVES OUT OF
THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND NORTHEAST ALONG THAT BOUNDARY...JUST
TO OUR SOUTH. EXPECT THIS PROCESS TO SHIFT THIS BOUNDARY NORTHWARD AS
IT DOES SO...PROVIDING A GOOD FOCUSING MECHANISM FOR OVER-RUNNING
RAINS. THIS RAIN WILL BE FED BY A SOMEWHAT COUPLED JET STRUCTURE
ALOFT...MODERATELY HIGH PWATS...AND A 50 KT 850 JET FROM THE SOUTH.
ANTICIPATE HEAVY SHOWERS...ALONG WITH A FEW EMBEDDED...ELEVATED...
THUNDERSTORMS...TO DEVELOP LATER THIS EVENING AND RAKE ACROSS FAR
EAST KENTUCKY WITH MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN THE RESULT. MUCH OF THIS
RAIN WILL FALL ON GROUND ALREADY SATURATED BY THE RAINS OF THE PAST
FEW DAYS. ACCORDINGLY...A FLASH FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN HOISTED FOR
THESE AREAS. EXPECT THE LOW TO EXIT THE CWA DURING THE MORNING...
MONDAY...TAKING ITS HEAVY RAIN ALONG WITH IT...BUT LEAVING BEHIND A
FEW LINGERING SHOWERS AND STILL PLENTY OF CLOUDS. IN ADDITION...THE
EXPECTED RAINFALL TONIGHT SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO LEAD TO HIGH WATER AND
FLOODING CONCERNS ALONG THE MAIN STEM RIVERS...PARTICULARLY THE
CUMBERLAND AND TO A LESSER EXTENT THE KENTUCKY. AN ESF HAS BEEN
ISSUED ADDRESSING THIS CONCERN.

AS FOR TEMPERATURES...FOLLOWED THE ADJUSTED MET GUIDANCE THE CLOSEST
THROUGH THE SHORT TERM AS THE NAM WAS THE FAVORED MODEL. MADE ONLY
LIMITED TERRAIN ADJUSTMENTS BASED ON OUR SATURATED ENVIRONMENT. AS
FOR POPS...PRETTY MUCH ENDED UP WITH CATEGORICAL FOR MOST OF THE
AREA TONIGHT AND THEN EARLY MONDAY BEFORE QUICKLY DROPPING BACK TO
CHANCE BY THE AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM.../MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/

AN ACTIVE LONG TERM PATTERN IS IN STORE AS NEARLY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT
WILL GIVE WAY TO A COUPLE OF AMPLIFIED H5 TROUGHS THROUGH THE END OF
THE WEEK. THE ECMWF CONTINUES TO BE THE PREFERRED MODEL THROUGH THE
EXTENDED WITH SUPPORT FROM GEFS/GEM/NAEFS AND HPC. OPERATIONAL GFS
IS AN OUTLIER WITH MOST ENSEMBLE MEMBERS LEANING MORE TOWARD SLOWER
AND MORE AMPLIFIED ECMWF SOLUTIONS.

LINGERING PRECIPITATION ON MONDAY NIGHT WILL QUICKLY TAPER OFF AS
MAIN TROUGH AXIS SLIDES EAST AND WEAK AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
IN ON TUESDAY. WILL MAINTAIN LOW CHANCE POPS IN THE EASTERN HALF OF
THE CWA BEFORE A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH ACROSS THE REGION ON TUESDAY
NIGHT AND POPS INCREASE AS INFLUENCE FROM DIGGING H5 TROUGH AND
ISENTROPIC LIFT COMMENCE. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW SOME ELEVATED
INSTABILITY...SO WILL INCLUDE SMALL CHANCES FOR THUNDER AS WELL.
EAST KENTUCKY WILL BE IN THE WARM SECTOR OF DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW
OVER INDIANA ON WEDNESDAY. GOOD CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL EXIST DURING THIS TIME AND CONTINUE THROUGH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THE ABOVE MENTIONED SURFACE LOW SWINGS A COLD
FRONT THROUGH THE AREA BY MID MORNING ON THURSDAY. THE ECMWF IS
PAINTING SOME PRETTY SIGNIFICANT QPF WITH THIS ENTIRE SYSTEM AND
WITH PLENTY OF RAINFALL AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM...WILL HAVE TO MONITOR
THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME HYDRO PROBLEMS ON WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

CONFIDENCE DECREASES IN FORECAST AFTER MID WEEK SYSTEM AS MODELS
DIVERGE ON POSSIBLE SOLUTIONS...HOWEVER A CONTINUED ACTIVE PATTERN
IS LIKELY WITH ANOTHER AMPLIFIED H5 TROUGH DIGGING INTO ZONAL FLOW
AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW/COLD FRONT SWINGING THROUGH EAST KENTUCKY
ON FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE LIKELY WITH THIS WAVE.

AS FOR TEMPERATURES...WENT ABOVE OR BELOW MEX GUIDANCE IN AREAS
WHERE ECMWF SOLUTION WAS NOTICEABLY DIFFERENT. OVERALL...LOW
TEMPERATURES WILL MOSTLY BE ABOVE CLIMO FOR THE PERIOD AS CLOUD
COVER WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES UP. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY
REMAIN NEAR THE MID 70S...AROUND CLIMO FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

&&

.AVIATION.../00Z TO 24Z/...UPDATED

LIFR AND OCCASIONAL VLIFR CIGS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD
IN MOST AREAS BENEATH THE SATURATED AIR MASS...AND EXPECT ANY
IMPROVEMENTS TO BE QUITE LIMITED...AND CONFINED TO THE LAST 6 HRS OF
THE PERIOD...WHERE CONDITIONS MAY IMPROVE TO MVFR FROM SW TO NE.
INITIALLY HIGHER CIGS STRADDLE THE VA BORDER AREA ATTM...BUT AS PRECIP
MOVES IN THE RIDGETOPS WILL BECOME OBSCURED. STEADIER PRECIPITATION
HAS DEVELOPED OVER THE LAST FEW HOURS AND CONTINUES TO MOVE TOWARD
THE AREA FROM MIDDLE TN. HAVE CONFINED THUNDER CHANCES TO VCTS AND A
CB GROUP...MAINLY DURING THE FIRST 8 TO 12 HRS OF THE PERIOD. PERIODS
OF HEAVIER PRECIPITATION SHOULD ALSO YIELD LOW VIS. IN FACT...STRATUS
BUILDOWN SHOULD LEAD TO LIFR VIS ON THE RIDGETOP AIRPORT LOCATIONS
SUCH AS JKL...K22 AND PBX. WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE GENERALLY
LIGHT...AROUND 5 KTS...AS THEY SPIN AROUND THE DIAL FROM NORTHEAST TO
SOUTHEAST AND THEN BACK TO NORTHEAST BY MONDAY MORNING.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR KYZ079-080-083>088-
110-113-115>120.

&&

SHORT TERM...GREIF
LONG TERM....SCHOETTMER
AVIATION...JP

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
430 PM EDT SUN MAY 3 2009

KYZ044-050>052-058>060-068-069-104-106>109-111-112-114-042330-
FLEMING-MONTGOMERY-BATH-ROWAN-ESTILL-POWELL-MENIFEE-ROCKCASTLE-
JACKSON-ELLIOTT-MORGAN-JOHNSON-WOLFE-MAGOFFIN-LEE-BREATHITT-OWSLEY-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...FLEMINGSBURG...MOUNT STERLING...
OWINGSVILLE...MOREHEAD...IRVINE...STANTON...FRENCHBURG...
MOUNT VERNON...MCKEE...SANDY HOOK...WEST LIBERTY...PAINTSVILLE...
CAMPTON...SALYERSVILLE...BEATTYVILLE...JACKSON...BOONEVILLE
430 PM EDT SUN MAY 3 2009

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN KENTUCKY.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT ALONG WITH PERIODS OF HEAVY
RAIN. AS A RESULT OF THE HEAVY RAIN...LOCALIZED FLOODING OF CREEKS
AND STREAMS WILL BE A POSSIBILITY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

A THUNDERSTORM WILL BE POSSIBLE EARLY MONDAY ALONG WITH BRIEF HEAVY
RAIN. RUNOFF FROM THIS COULD CAUSE LOCALIZED CREEK AND STREAM
FLOODING.

THE RAINS OF THE PAST COUPLE DAYS ARE EXPECTED TO LEAD TO SIGNIFICANT
RISES ON AREA RIVERS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
NIGHT.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT HEAVY RAINFALL...AS WELL AS ANY
INSTANCES OF FLOODING TONIGHT AND MONDAY.

KYZ079-080-083>088-110-113-115>120-042330-
PULASKI-LAUREL-WAYNE-MCCREARY-WHITLEY-KNOX-BELL-HARLAN-FLOYD-KNOTT-
PERRY-CLAY-LESLIE-LETCHER-MARTIN-PIKE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...SOMERSET...LONDON...MONTICELLO...
WHITLEY CITY...CORBIN...WILLIAMSBURG...BARBOURVILLE...MIDDLESBORO...
PINEVILLE...HARLAN...PRESTONSBURG...HINDMAN...HAZARD...MANCHESTER...
HYDEN...WHITESBURG...INEZ...PIKEVILLE
430 PM EDT SUN MAY 3 2009

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING THROUGH
MONDAY MORNING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN KENTUCKY.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

MODERATE TO HEAVY SHOWERS...ALONG WITH A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BRING HEAVY RAIN TO THE AREA TONIGHT. THE RAINS COULD BECOME
EXCESSIVE LEADING TO FLASH FLOODING OF CREEKS AND STREAMS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

A THUNDERSTORM WILL BE POSSIBLE EARLY MONDAY ALONG WITH BRIEF HEAVY
RAIN. RUNOFF FROM THIS COULD CAUSE LOCALIZED CREEK AND STREAM
FLOODING.

THE RAINS OF THE PAST COUPLE DAYS ARE EXPECTED TO LEAD TO SIGNIFICANT
RISES ON AREA RIVERS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
NIGHT.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT HEAVY RAINFALL...AS WELL AS ANY
INSTANCES OF FLOODING TONIGHT AND MONDAY.

GREIF