Tornado Warning 25, NWS Jacksonville, FL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
237 PM EDT MON APR 13 2009

...TORNADO WATCH IN EFFECT FOR MOST OF AREA THRU 7 PM...

.SHORT TERM...ALL BUT THE SRN FOUR COUNTIES ARE UNDER A TOR
WATCH. WARM FRONT IS LIFTING NE ACRS SRN GA WITH A BAND OF STRONG
STORMS NEAR THE BOUNDARY EXTENDING TO A SHORTWAVE IN THE GULF OF
MEXICO. RADAR HAS INDICATED SEVERAL TORNADOES WITHIN THE SHORT
BOWING LINE SEGMENTS. STRONG LLVL SHEAR IS EVIDENT WITH NAM BUFR
SOUNDINGS SHOWING 0-3KM STORM REL HELICITY OVER 400 THIS AFTN IN
SE GA. WINDS ARE BEGINNING TO VEER TO SLY OVER INTERIOR NE FL
WHILE REMAINING SELY NEAR THE COAST. TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
OVER THE PENINSULA LATER THIS AFTN AS A RESULT OF THIS CONVERGENT
FLOW.

THE SHORTWAVE WILL CONT TO PUSH EAST TONIGHT AND OFFSHORE TUE.
BANDS CONTAINING BOWING ECHOES WILL CONTINUE THRU THE NIGHT. A
40-50 KNOT LLVL JET OVER THE REGION AND VEERING WIND PROFILES WILL
CONTINU THE THREAT FOR TORNADOES AND DAMAGING WINDS. TOR WATCHES
WILL LIKELY CONT OVER MUCH OF THE AREA THRU EARLY TUE. LATEST
THINKING IS FOR 2-3 INCHES OF RAIN ACRS SUWANNEE BASIN AND 1-2
INCHES ELSEWHERE. ALTHO THIS WOULD AGGREVATE THE FLOODING...IT
SHOULD NOT PRODUCE ANY SIGNIFICANT CHANGE.

THE COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SE OF AREA LATE TUE AND HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD N OF AREA WEDNESDAY. NWLY FLOW WILL BRING COOLER AND
DRIER CONDS. TEMPS ON WED WILL BE AROUND 5 DEG BELOW CLIMO.

.LONG TERM...UPPER RIDGE WILL AMPLIFY OVER THE REGION NEAR THE END
OF THE WEEK. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD NORTH OF THE LOCAL
AREA THU-FRI WITH DRY CONDITIONS AND TEMPS SLIGHTLY BELOW CLIMO.
SAT THE SURFACE HIGH WILL SHIFT FARTHER SOUTH OVER SC/GA AND THEN
PUSHES OFFSHORE SUN AS THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM DEVELOPS OVER THE
LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY. ONSHORE FLOW AND DEEPER MOISTURE RETURN TO
THE AREA LATE SAT WHICH WILL MODERATE TEMPS FURTHER TOWARD OR
SLIGHTLY ABOVE CLIMO VALUES. THE NEXT COLD FRONT BRINGS A CHANCE
OF SHOWERS AND STORMS TO THE AREA MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...WIDESPREAD STRATO-CU DECK ACRS THE AREA AND AT THE
TERMINALS. CIGS ARE JUST ABV 3 KFT. CLOUDS SEEM TO HAVE SCATTERED
OUT A LITTLE SOONER THAN EXPECTED. WILL WAIT UNTIL HOURLY OBS TO
DETERMINE IF CIGS WILL HOLD VFR BEFORE AMENDING. ENVIRONMENT WILL
BE FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE T-STORM DEVELOPMENT THRU THE NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...SCA IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL LEGS THRU THIS EVNG AND
CONTINUES OFFSHORE THRU TUE EVNG. STRONG SLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE
TONIGHT AND SHIFT SW AHEAD OF THE FRONT ON TUE. OFFSHORE WINDS
ARE EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT TUESDAY NIGHT AND WILL DECREASE AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION. NORTHEAST SURGE OF WINDS IS
EXPECTED ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE HIGH PRESSURE BY FRIDAY WITH
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ONCE AGAIN.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
DRIER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE REGION FOR ONE DAY ON WEDNESDAY. RH
VALUES WILL DROP TO NEAR 30 PCT INLAND AND AROUND 35 PCT OVER
COASTAL COUNTIES. RHS RECOVER BY THURS WITH STRONG ONSHORE FLOW.
HOWEVER BY FRI THE HIGH DRIFTS INTO GA/SC WITH DRIER AIR LIKELY
MIXING DOWN.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  61  77  47  74 /  80  50   0   0
SSI  64  78  54  73 /  70  60  10   0
JAX  64  80  52  75 /  60  70  10  10
SGJ  66  80  57  74 /  50  60  10  10
GNV  65  80  52  77 /  60  70  10  10
OCF  66  79  55  77 /  50  70  10  10

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR DUVAL-FLAGLER-
     NASSAU-ST JOHNS.

GA...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR COASTAL
     CAMDEN-COASTAL GLYNN.

AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ALTAMAHA SOUND
     GA TO FERNANDINA BEACH FL 20 NM TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-
     FERNANDINA BEACH TO ST AUGUSTINE FL 20 NM TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-
     ST AUGUSTINE TO FLAGLER BEACH FL 20 NM TO 60 NM OFFSHORE.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ALTAMAHA
     SOUND GA TO FERNANDINA BEACH FL OUT 20 NM-FERNANDINA BEACH
     TO ST AUGUSTINE FL OUT 20 NM-ST AUGUSTINE TO FLAGLER BEACH
     FL OUT 20 NM.

&&

MKT/PW/RK

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
1249 PM EDT MON APR 13 2009

FLZ020>025-030>033-035>038-040-GAZ132>136-149>154-162>166-141045-
HAMILTON-SUWANNEE-COLUMBIA-BAKER-NASSAU-DUVAL-UNION-BRADFORD-CLAY-
ST JOHNS-GILCHRIST-ALACHUA-PUTNAM-FLAGLER-MARION-COFFEE-
JEFF DAVIS-BACON-APPLING-WAYNE-ATKINSON-WARE-PIERCE-BRANTLEY-
INLAND GLYNN-COASTAL GLYNN-ECHOLS-CLINCH-CHARLTON-INLAND CAMDEN-
COASTAL CAMDEN-
1249 PM EDT MON APR 13 2009

THIS OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST FLORIDA AND SOUTHEAST GEORGIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT...

...TORNADO WATCH IN EFFECT FOR SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND MOST OF
NORTHEAST FLORIDA THROUGH 7 PM...

...FLOOD WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR VARIOUS RIVERS ACROSS
SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND NORTHEAST FLORIDA...

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE LATE
MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING...

...MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS AT AREA BEACHES...

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BY LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND BECOME NUMEROUS TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING.
SOME STORMS MAY BE SEVERE AND COULD POSSIBLY PRODUCE HAIL AND
ISOLATED TORNADOES LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY TUESDAY.

PERIODS OF HEAVY RAINFALL MAY ACCOMPANY THIS SYSTEM WHICH COULD
AGGRAVATE THE FLOODING SITUATION ACROSS SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND THE
SUWANNEE RIVER VALLEY OF NORTH FLORIDA. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF
1 TO 2 INCHES ARE EXPECTED WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE.
THE EXACT INTENSITY AND LOCATION OF THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL REMAINS
UNCERTAIN AND RESIDENTS ACROSS THE AREA ARE URGED TO MONITOR THE
LATEST FORECASTS AND RIVER FLOOD PRODUCTS.

SIGNIFICANT RISES WILL CONTINUE ON THE SANTA FE RIVER AT BOTH THREE
RIVERS ESTATES AND HILDRETH. PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST RIVER FLOOD
PRODUCTS FOR COMPLETE DETAILS.

DUE TO INCREASING SOUTHEAST WINDS AND LINGERING SWELLS...THERE IS
A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS AT AREA BEACHES. REFER TO THE
SURF ZONE FORECAST.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

AN INCREASING ONSHORE FLOW AND NORTHEAST SWELLS WILL LIKELY
ELEVATE THE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS FROM THURSDAY INTO THE WEEKEND.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUESTED THIS AFTERNOON OR TONIGHT.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION...VISIT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
IN JACKSONVILLE WEBSITE ON THE INTERNET AT WEATHER.GOV/JAX.

PP/MKT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
555 PM EDT MON APR 13 2009

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0250 PM     HAIL             2 E TARBORO             31.01N 81.77W
04/13/2009  E0.88 INCH       CAMDEN             GA   EMERGENCY MNGR

&&

SHULER

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
557 PM EDT MON APR 13 2009

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0555 PM     TSTM WND DMG     5 S WAVERLY             31.02N 81.72W
04/13/2009                   CAMDEN             GA   PUBLIC

            PUBLIC REPORT OF HEAVY DEBRIS AND 1-2 INCHES OF WATER
            COVERING HIGHWAY 17.

&&

PKEEGAN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
558 PM EDT MON APR 13 2009

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0555 PM     HAIL             INTERLACHEN             29.62N 81.90W
04/13/2009  M1.00 INCH       PUTNAM             FL   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            PUTNAM COUNTY SHERRIFS OFFICE REPORTS QUARTER SIZE HAIL
            IN INTERLACHEN.

&&

PKEEGAN

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