Special Weather Statement, NWS Jacksonville, FL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
920 AM EDT SUN AUG 2 2009

.UPDATE...SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE OVER CENTRAL FL
WITH A LIGHT SW FLOW OVER THE AREA ATTM. BROAD/WEAK TROUGHING
REMAINS TO OUR W OVER THE LOWER MS TO THE TN VALLEY TO WRN NC.
ALOFT...BROAD TROUGH EXTENDS FROM CENTRAL GREAT LAKES TO NRN MS/AL
TO THE LOWER MS. FAIRLY WEAK EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES NOTED OVER THE GULF
COAST STATES WITH ONE OVER SRN AL SUPPORTING A FAIRLY SMALL AREA OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THERE. MEAN WINDS FROM RUC SHOW 5-10 KT
OVER SRN ZONES TO ABOUT 15 KT OVER INLAND SE GA. PWATS REMAIN
ELEVATED WITH ANALYSIS SHOWING 2.3 INCHES OVER SE GA AND LOWERING
SLIGHTLY INTO NE FL TO ABOUT 1.9-2.2. THE 12Z JAX SOUNDING SHOWS
SUBTLE CHANGES FROM YESTERDAY. TEMPS BELOW 500 MB HAVE WARMED
SLIGHTLY BUT LITTLE CHANGE ABOVE THAT. WINDS AT ALL LEVELS HAVE
INCREASED A BIT WHICH MAY PROVIDE FOR SOME SLIGHTLY STRONGER STORMS.
MODIFIED SOUNDING FOR 93/74 YIELDS CAPE OF 3300 J/KG...LI OF -6 AND
K-INDEX OF 34. AVERAGED WINDEX VALUE NOT TOO IMPRESSIVE AT ABOUT
35-45 KT THOUGH COULD BE STRONGER IN AN ISOLD STORM. FZ LEVEL
REMAINS HIGH AND SO MAIN IMPACTS WITH STRONG STORMS FOR THIS
AFTERNOON WILL BE GUSTY WINDS...HEAVY RAINFALL ALONG WITH
FREQ-EXCESSIVE LIGHTNING.

BEST POPS (NEAR 80%) TODAY WILL BE OVER SE GA IN THE DEEPER MOISTURE
AND ANY DPVA...DROPPING DOWN TO 60% OVER I-10 CORRIDOR AND 40-50%
ACROSS SRN TIER COUNTIES. EARLY VIS SHOWS MOSTLY SUNNY CONDS OVER
THE AREA EXCEPT FOR SOME LOW CLDS IMPACTING A FEW NW COUNTIES WHICH
SHOULD BE SHORT-LIVED. FEW SMALL SHOWERS POPPING UP OVER FL BIG BEND
AND NEAR OUR SE GA COUNTIES. ALL IN ALL...LITTLE CHANGE TO PREVIOUS
THINKING. HAVE TWEAKED UP TEMPS A BIT AND ADJUSTED TIMING OF PRECIP
A BIT LATER FOR THE SE ZONES AS BEST CHANCES WILL BE IN THE
AFTERNOON ALONG RIVER AND ATL COAST SEA BREEZE. ATLC COAST SEA
BREEZE WHICH SHOULD NOT MAKE TOO MUCH INLAND PROGRESS EXCEPT ALONG
FLAGLER AND ST JOHNS WHERE IT SHOULD AT LEAST MOVE TO I-95 AFTER
19-20Z.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. TEMPO FOR TSRA PROJECTED TO
BEGIN ABOUT 18-19Z WITH MVFR VIS/CIGS. FLIGHT CONDS MAY BRIEFLY
DECREASE INTO IFR RANGE IN SHRA/TSRA THIS AFTERNOON AS WELL.

&&

.MARINE...WINDS ARE SSW AROUND 12 KT AT THE LOCAL BUOYS AND SEAS
AROUND 2-3 FT. CURRENT FORECAST LOOKS ON TRACK WITH MINOR CHANGES
FOR PRECIP WORDING.

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

SHASHY/MCALLISTER

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
1028 AM EDT SUN AUG 2 2009

FLZ020>025-030>033-035>038-040-GAZ132>136-149>154-162>166-031020-
ALACHUA-APPLING-ATKINSON-BACON-BAKER-BRADFORD-BRANTLEY-
CAMDEN (COASTAL)-CAMDEN (INLAND)-CHARLTON-CLAY-CLINCH-COFFEE-
COLUMBIA-DUVAL-ECHOLS-FLAGLER-GILCHRIST-GLYNN (COASTAL)-
GLYNN (INLAND)-HAMILTON-JEFF DAVIS-MARION-NASSAU-PIERCE-PUTNAM-
ST JOHNS-SUWANNEE-UNION-WARE-WAYNE-
1028 AM EDT SUN AUG 2 2009

THIS OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST FLORIDA AND SOUTHEAST GEORGIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT...

...NUMEROUS TO WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND STORMS TODAY...

AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE INTO SOUTHERN GEORGIA LATER
TODAY. THIS COMBINED WITH PLENTY OF MOISTURE OVER THE REGION WILL
GENERATE SHOWERS AND STORMS THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS EVENING.
SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BEGIN TO AFFECT AREAS MAINLY WEST OF HIGHWAY
301 BY AFTERNOON AS THEY TRACK EAST AROUND 10 TO 15 MPH. BY MID TO
LATE AFTERNOON...THIS DISTURBANCE WILL FURTHER DESTABILIZE THE
ATMOSPHERE WHICH WILL ENHANCE CONVECTION ALREADY INITIATED BY THE
SEABREEZES. A SEABREEZE MERGER IS EXPECTED ALONG TO JUST EAST OF THE
INTERSTATE 95 CORRIDOR LATE THIS AFTERNOON. SOME STRONG STORMS ARE
POSSIBLE WHICH WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING EXCESSIVE LIGHTNING...
PERIODS OF HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST EACH DAY WITH A
FEW STRONG THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING. A GRADUAL DECREASE IN THUNDERSTORM CHANCES IS EXPECTED
ACROSS THE AREA FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED AT THIS TIME.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION...VISIT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
IN JACKSONVILLE WEBSITE ON THE INTERNET AT WEATHER.GOV/JAX.

ENYEDI/SHASHY

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
1214 PM EDT SUN AUG 2 2009

FLZ020-021-021645-
HAMILTON-SUWANNEE-
1214 PM EDT SUN AUG 2 2009

...A SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR NORTHERN SUWANNEE
AND WESTERN HAMILTON COUNTIES FOR WINDS AND EXCESSIVE LIGHTNING
VALID UNTIL 1245 PM EDT...

AT 1213 PM EDT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM CENTERED 7 MILES WEST OF SUWANNEE
SPRINGS...MOVING EAST AT 15 TO 20 MPH. THIS STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL
AFFECT AREAS AROUND JASPER AND SUWANNEE SPRINGS THROUGH 1245 PM EDT.
EXCESSIVE CLOUD-TO-GROUND LIGHTNING AND GUSTY WINDS TO 40 TO 45 MPH
CAN BE EXPECTED.

LAT...LON 3056 8290 3037 8278 3032 8293 3029 8312
      3045 8317
TIME...MOT...LOC 1613Z 256DEG 16KT 3039 8304

SHASHY

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
121 PM EDT SUN AUG 2 2009

FLZ036-040-021750-
ALACHUA-MARION-
121 PM EDT SUN AUG 2 2009

...A SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR SOUTHERN ALACHUA
AND NORTHWESTERN MARION COUNTIES FOR STRONG WINDS AND EXCESSIVE
LIGHTNING VALID UNTIL 150 PM EDT...

AT 121 PM EDT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM CENTERED 6 MILES NORTHEAST OF ROMEO...OR 9 MILES
NORTHEAST OF RAINBOW LAKES ESTATES...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 15 MPH. THIS
STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL ALSO AFFECT AREAS AROUND ROMEO...REDDICK...
MICANOPY...MCINTOSH...LOWELL...FLEMINGTON...CROSS CREEK AND CITRA
THROUGH 150 PM EDT. EXCESSIVE CLOUD-TO-GROUND LIGHTNING AND GUSTY
WINDS OF AROUND 45 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED ALONG WITH POSSIBLE MINOR
DAMAGE.

LAT...LON 2922 8246 2923 8240 2945 8241 2952 8238
      2952 8214 2939 8209 2910 8237
TIME...MOT...LOC 1721Z 236DEG 12KT 2926 8236

SHASHY