Special Weather Statement, NWS Jacksonville, FL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
238 PM EDT TUE JUL 28 2009

...NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...

A RELATIVELY WET PERIOD IS EXPECTED IN THE SHORT TERM AS THE
MID/UPPER LEVEL TROF OVER THE ERN U.S. CONTINUES TO SEND IMPULSES OF
MOISTURE INTO THE FORECAST AREA WHILE THE LOW LEVEL SURFACE RIDGE
SLOWLY BUILDS NORTHWARD INTO THE FORECAST AREA.

LACK OF ANY SIGNIFICANT IMPULSE THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD KEEP MOST OF
THE TSTM ACTIVITY SCATTERED WITH STILL THE CHANCE OF ISOLD STRONG TO
SVR TSTMS NEAR THE SBRZ COLLISION BTWN U.S 301 AND I-95 THIS EVENING.

OTHERWISE A RELATIVELY DEEP AND MOIST SOUTHWEST STEERING FLOW WILL
SET-UP THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK WITH PWATS AROUND 2 INCHES EACH
DAY. EXPECT AT LEAST NUMEROUS SHOWERS/TSTMS TO DEVELOP DURING THE
LATE MORNING HOURS AND CONTINUE INTO THE AFTERNOON. GFS GUIDANCE
POPS ARE JUST SLIGHTLY ABOVE 80% AT SOME SPOTS...BUT FOR NOW HAVE
THEM CAPPED IN THE LIKELY CATEGORY...CLOSER TO THE ENSEMBLE MEANS.
HAVE USED THE LATEST 09Z SREF FOR TIMING OF ACTIVITY AND WITH THE
MORNING STARTS TO TSTM ACTIVITY AND MORE CLOUD COVER EXPECT MAX
TEMPS TO TWEAK DOWN A NOTCH AND LINGER AROUND 90 DEGREES FOR THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. HPC/GFS GUIDANCE SUGGEST WIDESPREAD RAINFALL
AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AND SOME LOCALIZED
FLOODING FROM THE STRONGER AFTN TSTMS IS POSSIBLE...OTHERWISE MOST
OF THE TSTM ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SEVERE LIMITS.

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST LOW LEVEL RIDGE AXIS TO BUILD NORTHWARD
OVER THE FORECAST AREA...BUT WITH ABUNDANT MOISTURE REMAINING AND
ONLY WEAK MID LEVEL RIDGING EXPECTED...SCTD TSTMS ON TAP EACH DAY
WITH CLIMO CONDS OF MAX TEMPS IN THE LOWER 90S.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL. WILL LIMIT TEMPO GROUP TO
KGNV FOR NOW AS NUMERICAL MODELS INDICATE INCREASING SUBSIDENCE
ALOFT ALONG AND NORTH OF THE I-10 CORRIDOR SHOULD LIMIT COVERAGE
ACROSS THESE AREAS. HAVE INCLUDED TEMPO MVFR VSBYS FOR KGNV AND
KVQQ BETWEEN 08Z AND 12Z AS LIGHT BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS WILL FAVOR
SOME FOG DEVELOPMENT AT THESE AREAS OVERNIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL EXTEND THROUGH THE FRIDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE LINGERS ACROSS SOUTH AND CENTRAL FLORIDA...WHILE TROUGHING
CONTINUES TO THE NORTH. EVENING WIND SURGES WILL AFFECT MAINLY THE
OFFSHORE WATERS. THIS WEEKEND THE RIDGE AXIS WILL SHIFT FARTHER
NORTH WITH A PREVAILING SOUTHEAST FLOW...AND SEAS UPWARDS OF 4 FEET
IN OUR OFFSHORE LEGS DUE TO BUILDING SWELLS.
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  71  89  72  91 /  20  70  20  50
SSI  77  85  76  86 /  20  50  20  30
JAX  74  89  74  89 /  30  70  20  70
SGJ  75  89  75  87 /  20  40  20  70
GNV  72  90  73  89 /  30  70  20  70
OCF  73  91  73  89 /  30  70  30  70

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

HESS/ZAPPE/KERNS

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
453 AM EDT TUE JUL 28 2009

FLZ020>025-030>033-035>038-040-GAZ132>136-149>154-162>166-291000-
HAMILTON-SUWANNEE-COLUMBIA-BAKER-NASSAU-DUVAL-UNION-BRADFORD-CLAY-
ST JOHNS-GILCHRIST-ALACHUA-PUTNAM-FLAGLER-MARION-COFFEE-
JEFF DAVIS-BACON-APPLING-WAYNE-ATKINSON-WARE-PIERCE-BRANTLEY-
INLAND GLYNN-COASTAL GLYNN-ECHOLS-CLINCH-CHARLTON-INLAND CAMDEN-
COASTAL CAMDEN-
453 AM EDT TUE JUL 28 2009

THIS OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST FLORIDA AND SOUTHEAST GEORGIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT...

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TODAY WITH THE HIGHEST
COVERAGE OVER INLAND AREAS ESPECIALLY SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF
NORTHEAST FLORIDA. THESE STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
STRONG WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AS WELL
AS INTENSE CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST EACH DAY WITH A
FEW STRONG THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED AT THIS TIME.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION...VISIT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
IN JACKSONVILLE WEBSITE ON THE INTERNET AT WEATHER.GOV/JAX.

MKT

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
618 PM EDT TUE JUL 28 2009

FLZ025-282245-
DUVAL-
618 PM EDT TUE JUL 28 2009

...A SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR EASTERN DUVAL
COUNTY FOR STRONG WINDS...SMALL HAIL AND EXCESSIVE LIGHTNING VALID
UNTIL 645 PM EDT...

AT 618 PM EDT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS CENTERED 3 MILES NORTHWEST OF UNF...MOVING NORTHEAST AT
15 MPH. THESE STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO AFFECT AREAS AROUND
UNF...TALLYRAND...SAN MARCO...DOWNTOWN JACKSONVILLE...ARLINGTON...SAN
PABLO...OCEANWAY...JACKSONVILLE BEACH...NEPTUNE BEACH AND MAYPORT
THROUGH 645 PM EDT. HAIL UP TO ONE HALF INCH IN DIAMETER...EXCESSIVE
CLOUD-TO-GROUND LIGHTNING AND GUSTY WINDS OF 45 TO 55 MPH CAN BE
EXPECTED ALONG WITH POSSIBLE MINOR DAMAGE. HEAVY RAINFALL WILL
PRODUCE PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS AND MINOR FLOODING OF LOW-LYING
AREAS.

REPORT DAMAGE TO THE NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY OR YOUR COUNTY
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT.

LAT...LON 3025 8143 3022 8144 3020 8163 3045 8173
      3054 8148 3051 8147 3051 8144 3041 8140
      3025 8138
TIME...MOT...LOC 2218Z 226DEG 12KT 3030 8155

ZIBURA

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
621 PM EDT TUE JUL 28 2009

FLZ025-033-038-282300-
DUVAL-FLAGLER-ST. JOHNS-
621 PM EDT TUE JUL 28 2009

...A SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR NORTHERN
FLAGLER...ST. JOHNS AND SOUTHEASTERN DUVAL COUNTIES FOR STRONG
WINDS...SMALL HAIL AND EXCESSIVE LIGHTNING VALID UNTIL 700 PM EDT...

AT 621 PM EDT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS CENTERED 7 MILES SOUTH OF HASTINGS...MOVING NORTHEAST
AT 15 MPH. THESE STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO AFFECT AREAS AROUND
ANDALUSIA...HASTINGS...ESPANOLA...SPUDS...SAINT AUGUSTINE SOUTH...
SAINT AUGUSTINE SHORES...SAINT AUGUSTINE BEACH...SAINT AUGUSTINE...
PALM COAST AND ELKTON THROUGH 700 PM EDT. HAIL UP TO ONE HALF INCH IN
DIAMETER...EXCESSIVE CLOUD-TO-GROUND LIGHTNING AND GUSTY WINDS OF 45
TO 55 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED ALONG WITH POSSIBLE MINOR DAMAGE. HEAVY
RAINFALL WILL PRODUCE PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS AND MINOR FLOODING
OF LOW-LYING AREAS.

REPORT DAMAGE TO THE NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY OR YOUR COUNTY
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT.

LAT...LON 2940 8146 2949 8152 3021 8150 3024 8138
      2997 8129 2978 8125 2966 8119 2942 8113
TIME...MOT...LOC 2221Z 232DEG 11KT 2962 8149

ZIBURA